The biggie ! The one we have all been waiting for !

 

Just 4 points between the top 2 and it should be win or bust for Dortmund,  XP puts Bayern's advantage at +10 points and looking at ITB stats they are + 122 for the season and +39 for the last 9 games.

 

These are also the top 2 first half teams, with Dortmund ranked #1 as host (9-3-1) and Bayern #1 on the road (8-4-1) and they are also a sensational +11 goals ( 12-1) for the opening 15 minutes of away games.

 

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 26 games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 37 games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

Pd = games played.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

At present I am undecided whether to go with 8 or 6 games for the last column, but it probably doesn't overly matter as I will be looking for changing trends over shorter periods than that in any case and highlighting those within the matchday previews.

 

 

 

ITB: totals through 25 rounds (teams in league table order).........