Champions League betting tip : Chelsea- Bayern Munich and updated numbers for tonight's Championship games
Feb 25, 2020
Championship:
Figures next to each team are ITB net numbers for the season, in brackets, for those created-conceded over the last 8 games.
Cardiff City -18 (66-60)- Nottingham Forest -25 (64-64)
Luton Town -122( 39-65)- Brentford +137 (76-42)
QPR +9 (55-68) - Derby County -45 (45-59)
Huddersfield Town -81 (60-56) - Bristol City -74 (61-79)
West Bromwich Albion +96 (96-35) - Preston North End +37 (59-53)
Champions League: Chelsea- Bayern Munich
Since Hans-Dieter Flick took charge at Bayern they have gone back to the top of the Bundesliga and won 10 of their last 11 starts (one draw) , in all 14 wins under Hansi they have either scored 3+ goals or won by 2+ ,or more often , both.
However, it is in the Champions League that they have really impressed this season, they were a perfect 6/6 in the group stage, but it is their stats within that that make the best reading , they have averaged 25.0 attempts on goal per game, with 10.83 on target, creating 26 BC's , were a net + 63 ITB and also hit the woodwork 8 times ! They actually had their worst stats in that 7-2 win at Spurs which is crazy to consider if you watched the game.
Chelsea have gone in the opposite direction and clearly backwards in recent weeks. They made very hard work of group stage qualification, losing here at Stamford Bridge to Valencia 1-0 and we saw their limitations last week and the Blues were trailing 4-2 late to Ajax before two dismissals meant the Dutch team played a quarter of the game with 9 men and gave Chelsea a route to a 4-4 draw.
The hosts look up against it here and haven’t made it past the round of 16 since 2013/14 They look short of experience at this level with several key young players in their first season of Champions League football and they certainly could have done without the injury to N'Golo Kante. He missed both those two home CL games previously discussed and also sat out both games with Roma in the 2017-18 season with the Blues conceding three in each , so 11 goals shipped across those four starts, with three played in London. Chelsea are going to need to raise their game above anything we have seen recently to get something from this, Bayern to get the hard work done this evening.
2.25 units Bayern Munich -0.75 ball 2.22 asian line/Sportmarket.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
Good Luck.
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