Battle of the Midlands!
Apr 05, 2025

Premier League: Aston Villa- Nottingham Forest
Forest are having an incredible season, with a Champions League place looking increasingly likely and both they and Villa are still in the FA Cup (semi finals) and could meet again in the final. Villa are 7th and will want to ensure a return to the CL themselves, but have some unfinished business in that competition this season and travel to Paris to play the French champions on Wednesday. So this does have a bit of a Championship of the Midlands vibe about it. It is easy to see Forest as the more focussed as they do not play again for a week and it is all about the EPL for them for now, having said that, Villa do need the back up plan of that top 5 place and we could make the case for today being more important to them as they do not have the points cushion that the Tricky Trees (terrible nickname!) have. Lets just say that this will be played on its merits and where the home side are concerned, at Villa Park against EPL opposition, that usually means goals for both teams and a strong showing from the host.
Villa have lost just one of 23 home games and that in a competition where they did not need further involvement and they have dominated xG stats at Villa Park too, as you might expect. Despite that dominance, they have conceded on 23 of 26 EPL starts as hosts, giving up 2+ goals in 13 and the bet I am going with today, would have been a winner in 17 of those, or 65.38% and we can bet today @ odds of 2.34 which is 42.74%. I am sticking with those trends.
2.25 units both teams to score and "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.34 asian line.
Good luck!
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