Sample clubgowi newsletter

Below is a complete and recent clubgowi newsletter, it is typical of a weekend send out in terms of length and quality and subscribers will receive some 400 of these every year. There were six suggested bets and four won at odds of 2.04/ 2.30/ 2.58 and 2.99, but it is more about giving you a look at the content rather than showing how clever I am, which everyone knows in any case!

 

Friday March 1st
 
Next newsletter will be sent by 10:00 UK time on Saturday.
 
Premier League: 
 
2023/24 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Liverpool 26 18 6 2 63 25 +38 60 WWWL 13 11 2 0 37 11 13 7 4 2 26 14
  2   Manchester City 26 18 5 3 59 26 +33 59 WWXW 13 9 4 0 31 11 13 9 1 3 28 15
  3   Arsenal 26 18 4 4 62 23 +39 58 WWWW 13 10 2 1 34 12 13 8 2 3 28 11
  4   Aston Villa 26 16 4 6 56 35 +21 52 WWLW 13 10 1 2 35 15 13 6 3 4 21 20
  5   Tottenham Hotspur 25 14 5 6 52 38 +14 47 LWXW 13 9 0 4 26 18 12 5 5 2 26 20
  6   Manchester United 26 14 2 10 36 36 +0 44 LWWW 13 7 1 5 19 20 13 7 1 5 17 16
  7   Brighton & HA 26 10 9 7 49 41 +8 39 XWLW 13 6 6 1 27 16 13 4 3 6 22 25
  8   West Ham United 26 11 6 9 40 46 -6 39 WLLL 13 6 4 3 22 19 13 5 2 6 18 27
  9   Wolves 26 11 5 10 40 40 +0 38 WWLW 13 6 3 4 20 20 13 5 2 6 20 20
  10   Newcastle United 26 11 4 11 54 45 +9 37 LXWX 13 8 2 3 31 16 13 3 2 8 23 29
  11   Chelsea 25 10 5 10 42 41 +1 35 XWLL 12 5 3 4 20 18 13 5 2 6 22 23
  12   Fulham 26 9 5 12 36 42 -6 32 WLWX 13 7 1 5 23 15 13 2 4 7 13 27
  13   Crystal Palace 26 7 7 12 31 44 -13 28 WXLL 13 4 3 6 18 19 13 3 4 6 13 25
  14   Bournemouth 25 7 7 11 33 47 -14 28 LXLX 12 3 4 5 12 18 13 4 3 6 21 29
  15   Everton1 26 8 7 11 28 34 -6 25 XXLX 13 3 4 6 14 15 13 5 3 5 14 19
  16   Brentford 26 7 4 15 37 48 -11 25 LLLW 13 4 3 6 22 27 13 3 1 9 15 21
  17   Nottingham Forest 26 6 6 14 34 48 -14 24 LWLX 13 4 3 6 19 20 13 2 3 8 15 28
  18   Luton Town 25 5 5 15 35 51 -16 20 LLLX 13 3 2 8 19 22 12 2 3 7 16 29
  19   Burnley 26 3 4 19 25 58 -33 13 LLLX 13 1 2 10 13 32 13 2 2 9 12 26
  20   Sheffield United 26 3 4 19 22 66 -44 13 LLWL 13 2 2 9 12 36 13 1 2 10 10 30
 
1 Everton (-6)
 
Brentford- Chelsea
 
Brentford have largely bossed the h2h meetings since they were promoted scoring eight goals and winning all three games at Stamford Bridge, but taking just one point from the two games here at Lionel Road (0-1 and 0-0) but they dominated most of both games , being a combined 5-1 for BC's and hitting the woodwork FOUR times.
 
Brentford are decent but have been ravaged by injury and the long term to suspension to Ivan Toney and they have had between 9-12 senior players missing all season, currently it is down to "just" 9  and the bare bones in central defence where they were all at sea on Monday at West Ham and where, incredibly and stupidly, I did not go with my usual choice when siding with the Bees of them to score twice, which would have at least eased the pain. They do not have the blistering pace which has been so key to them, with Henry, Mbeumo and Schade long term absences, but Regulion and Lewis-Potter bring a degree of it to the flanks now and Maupay, Wissa and Toney know where the goal is and are scoring.
 
Brentford have scored in 25 of 26 home games, 2+ goals in 13 of those (50%) and will surely be the better rested of these two, with this their 8th start in 42 days, Chelsea will be playing their 10th in 39. The Blues also played Sunday (Wembley), Tuesday (Stamford Bridge) and the Bees just at West Ham on Monday. The visitors are 10 points better off with a game in hand, but xP sees the gap as just 4. Brentford have only really struggled at home to the Gunners in derby games which they seem to get "up" for and they are unbeaten in 11 to teams not called Arsenal! Scoring 2+ goals in 5 of the last 7. Chelsea are 12 away games without a clean sheet, giving up 22 goals and an xGA per game of 1.92.
 
2 units Brentford to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.30 asian line.
 
 
Luton Town - Aston Villa
 
Luton Town hosted Man City in the FA Cup on Tuesday...........
These two met in this fixture shortly before Christmas, City were in a bit of a rut (it is all relative) at the time .............
 
Villa beat Manchester City 1-0 here at Villa Park on Wednesday and really ought to have found the second goal I was hoping for. They gave the champions a bit of a battering and City did not have a real attempt on goal after about the first 15 minutes and second half stats gave them 0.0 xGF, 0 attempts on goal , 0 ITB and I suspect they have never posted those numbers before under Guardiola (not many EPL teams will have done!) and are unlikely to ever again. City must have been shell shocked after that and they are winless in 4 and have conceded 10 goals, and it should be more, in their last five . It is nearly 7 years since City were scoreless in back to back league games and they will surely bounce back today, but Luton are not the sort to respect reputations and will battle for 100 minutes. They have scored in 6/7 home games and it should have been all 7, they have scored six in the last three, including visits from Liverpool and Arsenal, leading the Gunners before conceding a goal with the last action of the game to lose by the odd goal in seven, drawing 1-1 with Pool. A day out at Kenilworth Road is not for the faint hearted or a team low in confidence, it is a step back in time in EPL terms, both on and off the pitch, but City have to bounce back, however, they will be forced to fight all the way.
 
Town led at the break, with City scoring twice afterwards to edge home. City then went to the World Club Cup, won that and came back a different team (13-1-0 subsequently), but they will still have their work cut out this evening. Town can really only play one way and that is maximum effort for 100 minutes and whilst their only concern should be survival and their biggest game this week the weekend visit from Villa, they are only a ten seasons removed from non-league football and it must be hard for them not to view a visit from the European (World?) champions, as huge. However, Town have conceded 13 goals in their last three games and are more than a little beat up at present, top scorer Elijah Adebayo (9 goals) is out, as are their two big loanees Sambi Lokonga (Arsenal) and Issa Kabore ( who cannot play against his parent club and they have four other absences. Alfie Doughty (5 assists) left the weekend game with a knock and whist he is said to be available he would be a big risk, in early season I noted : Doughty has started the last four games and come out of nowhere to record a mind boggling 20 created chances, most per minute this season in the top flight and he is not even a big name in his own household!
 
City have conceded in 25 of 29 away games in all competitions which is today's stand out stat and Town did score at home to Man U and at Anfield in the only two starts that Adebayo has missed, so normal service is likely to be played out.
 
City won 6-2 and led 2-0 after 18 minutes, but it got close for a while and as I have said multiple times, Town just do not know when they are beaten and it is an admirable trait. However, they have now conceded 19 goals in five starts, 7 have come early (first 30 minutes) and left them chasing games. They are bit beat up/shorthanded, conceding too freely and this will be the 4th top 6 team they will have faced inside 13 days.
 
Villa scored four at home to Forest and raced into a 3-0 lead but got sloppy either side of the half time break............
 
I am not sure if Villa would prefer to be on the road again this week, as they have struggled a bit at famous old Villa Park recently, but they did get back on track last week with a 2-1 win at Fulham .....
 
My goodness, Villa will be pleased to get away from Villa Park, where once they were invincible but have now lost three in a row (Newcastle/Chelsea/Man United) conceding 8 goals (only 6 total in their first 9 home starts). This feels like a huge game for them, really huge, for a while they were being considered genuine title contenders and now they have lost 4th place and have Man U coming up fast on the outside and they need to regroup and fast. 
 
They do have four clean sheets in a row on the road and won two of those (one cup) and scored five at Sheffield United in the most recent, so will not mind the trip down to London this weekend where they are 3/3 in the EPL winning at Chelsea, Brentford ( very luckily!) and Tottenham. Unai Emery is a very intelligent head coach and will sort this out and not too much was actually wrong last Sunday and they created 23 attempts, 18 ITB, 10 on target, 4 BC's with Andre Onana making 8 saves in the United goal and he was the star performer on the pitch.
 
Positives were that they were 2-0 up shortly after half time and that top scorer Ollie Watkins fully refound his goal touch with a brace after missing a few chances recently, he now has a fantastic 13 goals and 12 assists this season, a goal contribution every 88.5 minutes played!  They then gifted Fulham a way back into the game with a defensive mishap , but one of the culprits, goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez got back in the good books with two timely saves late on. 
 
However, it was a big win for Villa and they could have been out of sight and 3-4 up before they conceded and they have something to build on now. 
 
Forest are looking to do the double over Villa having won the reverse fixture 2-0 and are coming off a win by the same scoreline over West Ham United last weekend........
 
I am not sure where the Hammers go, apart from up the M1 to Nottingham, after that performance last Sunday ( see above), it was beyond awful and even a little cowardly. Moyes has set up a defensive team in a defensive formation and they lose 6-0 at home and cannot defend a set piece! West Ham are supposed to be difficult to score against but a simple switch in play from Arteta (moving Ben White inside) allowed space between the press and the Hammers did not or could not react and after the first 20-25 minutes Johnson-Soucek- JWP were lost and did not seem to know where they should be playing or marking and had no help from the touchline. Plenty for Forest to ponder from that and easy to see a goal or two for them, their need is great and they have scored in all seven league games under Nuno Espirito Santo, two plus in five and his Wolves team scored twice against the Hammers the only time he has ever hosted a Moyes team in the EPL. Forest lost 2-3 here at the City Ground last weekend to Newcastle and created the better chances in that and they do get massive support in this stadium and they need a result desperately with their next three starts versus top 6 teams and all in better form that the Hammers. United won the reverse fixture 3-2 , but Forest led and deserved at least a point . 
 
They were helped by a sending off for the Hammers after 70 minutes or so, but to be honest, were well on top and totally bossed every statistical offensive category, but that probably says far more about United right now than it does about Forest.
 
The visitors have won back to back just once in the last 12 months and next time out after what are just eight wins through that period, they are ..........
2-3/1-1/2-3/2-1/2-3/ 1-1/2-2/1-2 .
 
I expect those trends to continue and both teams to score at least once, Villa need the win to stay above Tottenham and Man United and are much the better team but do have a habit of losing to the same team twice and their six defeats have come against Newcastle (twice), Man U (twice) and Liverpool and Forest.
 
Villa should win this and probably comfortably, but Town always find a goal.
 
2.25 units Aston Villa to win and both teams to score @ 2.99 asian line.
 
Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers
 
Newcastle made the notes twice in the last week, ahead of that 4-1 defeat at the Emirates and in midweek when they travelled to struggling Championship side Blackburn Rovers...........
 
My preseason notes on United went a lot like this ..........
 
After their great finish to 21/22 and avoiding relegation,United stuck with Eddie Howe which surprised some and that was rewarded with a 4th placed finish and Champions League football. Also a bit of a shock is how "little" the Magpies have spent, it is a king's ransom to some clubs, but after "overpaying" for a number of additions in that first January window after the Saudi takeover, they were expected to just throw money at the project, but their spending has actually been very considered. Isak/Gordon/Botman last season and so far in this window, LW Harvey Barnes from Leicester City and DM Sandro Tonali from Milan, all fairly young too. I am quite impressed by that and by United at times last season, most times to be fair, but do have some concerns.......
 
This will be Howe's first ever European campaign of any sort and he is straight into the CL, his squad is not the deepest and those extra six games, which will be massive in the North East, could take a toll. Also, goals, they scored 68, which is ten more than Man United, but still less than what we would normally expect from a top 4 team, 39 came from Callum Wilson (18), with 11 from Almiron and Isak scored 10.  Wilson missed a month, had been injury prone in the two previous seasons and that was his highest ever tally, Almiron had scored 9 in 110 EPL games before last season and it was Isak's first EPL campaign. It is hard to see all three repeating that feat and there's a chance that none will! Not sure we will see another top 4 finish, but always the chance they could throw the cheque book at some big names if the need arose.
 
Isak will beat that total of goals from last season, but Wilson and Almiron have just ten between them and the striker has missed 11 EPL games and is injured again, they have scored more goals overall than at this stage last season (15 more) and that was required, but it has come at an enormous cost defensively where they have conceded an additional 26, which is a goal per game! They are 10th with an outside chance of a minor European spot, but unless they win the FA Cup this season will be considered a big step backwards by the owners and I doubt they will want to listen to excuses about injuries. At times they have looked good, mainly when they have played Aston Villa ! Winning the two league meetings with the 4th placed team by a combined 8-2 ( "can we play you every week?"), they also won 3-0 at Old Trafford in the League Cup and battered PSG 4-1 at SJP in the Champions League, but even that ended in a 4th place in the group stage. They have conceded 34 goals in 16 starts, giving up 3+ goals in 7 of those, including to three teams currently in the EPL bottom six and yes, they desperately need this win and can turn it on at times, but not really a team to trust to keep a clean sheet .
 
Blackburn Rovers have some issues off the pitch and are very much in transition with a new head coach , but they can forget all about that this evening and this is their cup final and an occasion to be savoured.
 
They progressed after extra time and penalties, but never really looked like the EPL team until the additional 30 minutes and their reward for reaching the quarter finals? A trip to the the Etihad to face Manchester City!
 
Wolves also made FA Cup progress this week, edging past a strong Brighton team 1-0, that was their 4th win in five starts, with their only loss to Brentford ( I had to mention that!), their two away games in that sequence were wins at Chelsea (4-2) and Tottenham (2-1), we sided with them in both and ahead of the latter I wrote ....
 
Tottenham are 8 home games without a clean sheet conceding 14 goals and have have allowed 2+ goals in 5 of their last 8 starts (home and away). They did restrict Brighton to just one last week and scored late themselves to record a 2-1 win, but the Seagulls had good chances for a second goal , ahead of that I wrote .....
 
I have spent most of the last two seasons banging on about how good Brighton are and well run as a football club and with Tottenham being vulnerable defensively, but great going forward and finally playing to their strengths under head coach Ange Postecoglu. Spurs have scored in 35 consecutive EPL games which is an amazing record, but they have also conceded 2+ in 9 of their last 13 starts, including their last three. The two clubs met in the reverse fixture shortly after Christmas and Brighton were very comfortable 4-2 winners. The visitors will surely be up for this after their horror show at Luton Town on their most recent away day where they lost 4-0. I think we have to largely ignore that, as good as the Seagulls have been, there has been the odd blip, like a 5-1 home loss to a really out of form Everton last season and an early 6-1 loss at Villa early in this campaign and they always bounce back and did so last week with a 4-1 home win over their biggest rival Crystal Palace, but now they will want a road performance. With regard to xP , Brighton have a 10 point swing in their favour and are suggested as a point better.
 
Tottenham have conceded 10 of their 15 home goals after the 60th minute , so no need to panic if a goal or goals do not come early.
 
We have already touched upon Wolves ( see Brentford notes) and they were poor against the Bees in the opening half , but should have scored after it and had scored 9 goals in their three starts prior to that and have a good record against Spurs winning on 3/5 visits to North London and taking the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier this season with two late goals. 
 
Wanderers have largely impressed under Gary O'Neil this season and tended to bounce back from poor results and they will have top scorer Hwang Hee-chan (10 goals ,three assists) back from the Asian Cup finally and with their three stars in tandem for the first time in months, with LB Ait-Nouri having returned from the ACN and Pedro Neto ( 2 goals, 8 assists) who missed 10 games and is only now fully fit. Neto has the most assists per game in the EPL and his injury might have been a blessing in disguise as it stopped any clubs sniffing around in January, although everyone was keeping their purses tightly closed! They have the players to take advantage of the ultra high Spurs defensive line and the only question to concern ourselves with is will they score 1 or 2 goals? Good odds about the latter.
 
Wanderers are in good form and can cause United's leaky backline problems even without a natural striker, Cunha was already missing and it looks like Hee-chan picked up a knock in midweek, but Callum Wilson, Nick Pope and Joelinton all remain absent for the Magpies along with others which balances things out and the odds for the home win of sub 1.9 do not make a lot of sense given anything we have seen from either team in the last month.
 
2 units Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 ball 2.36 asian line.
 
Tottenham Hotspur- Crystal Palace
 
Tottenham have not played since that 2-1 home defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers ( see above) 14 days ago. Ange Postecoglu will have welcomed the chance to work with his squad without distractions, but it would be unusual to suddenly find a solution to defensive issues at this stage of the campaign and unlikely that he is going to ditch his offensive mindset that has played to his team's strengths, largely served them well and won over supporters, so, more of the same!
 
Palace have started strongly for new head coach Oliver Glasner with a point at Everton and 3-0 win over Burnley and he has achieved that without their three star names and ahead of that game at Goodison Park my notes included......
 
Palace are without what most would call their three prize assets in Cheick Doucoure, Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise and, one opposing head coach of a jealous relegation rival earlier this season called them a Championship side with two £60m+ players, after Eze and Olise pulled his team apart. That duo have 11 goals and 4 assists between them, from a team who have only scored 27 total and dictate so much of what the Eagles do offensively. Doucoure is key to protecting the backline , in the last three starts that Olise has missed they are pointless, conceding 12 goals and he has scored 5 and assisted for three in his last five games, when Eze is absent they are 0-3-6, 6-3-6 when he starts.
 
All of which makes those two results all the more impressive and Glasner has also had his first real time with the squad this week, with 7 days to prepare solely for Spurs and a big boost with the return to training of Eze and he seems likely to play.
 
2.25 units both teams to score and "over" 2.5 goals 2.04 asian line.
 
I would not totally rule out the away win and odds of circa 7.0 are worthy of consideration as Tottenham concede too many goals to be a true 1.45 (69%) chance and the hosts look likely to have Emerson Royal at RB and when he starts, they have won just 2 of 8 starts, conceding at the rate of 2.125 goals pg , given up just 1.24 when he is missing from the starting 11.
 
 
Manchester City- Manchester United
 
All those old Manchester United issues came home to roost once again at home to Fulham last weekend when they were largely outplayed and lost 2-1. They did win at Forest in the FA Cup on Wednesday, scoring with the only goal of the game in the 90th minute. But the hosts rotated, resting four key players and have survival as their sole priority. We have already touched upon City's amazing form and their 6-2 win at Luton Town ( see above) and that came on Tuesday, giving them an extra 24 hours to rest up, recover and prepare for this.
 
They have won the last two h2h games as host, 4-1 and 6-3 and the reverse fixture this season 3-0 and just look on another level to their local rival, but United have scored 13 goals in their last seven visits to the Etihad.
 
City's last 42 home EPL games, that is more than two full seasons worth, so a big sample, have seen them keep a clean sheet in 16 (38.1%), concede in 26 (61.9%) , giving up multiple goals in 23.8% , winning and conceding in 18 (42.86%).
 
2.25 units Manchester City to win with both teams scoring 2.58 asian line.
 
 
 
Ligue 1: AS Monaco- Paris Saint Germain
 
2023/24 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Paris SG 23 16 6 1 54 19 +35 54 XWWW 12 8 3 1 31 12 11 8 3 0 23 7
  2   Brest 23 12 7 4 34 18 +16 43 WWXO 11 6 4 1 18 7 12 6 3 3 16 11
  3   Monaco 23 12 5 6 44 34 +10 41 WLWX 11 6 1 4 18 11 12 6 4 2 26 23
 
PSG hold an 11 point lead at the top of the table and yet another title in on it's way to the Parc des Princes, but the trophy they really crave is the Champions League and despite holding a  2-0 lead from the first leg, they will have one eye on the return leg with Real Sociedad on Tuesday. PSG are winless in four CL away starts ( 2 wins in 12), losing three, two by 2+ goals so will not be taking anything for granted.
 
This game is far more important for Monaco, but they have been struggling for wins at home recently, but scoring freely on the road and scored twice in the reverse fixture (5-2) . They actually have a solid record in this fixture winning the last three meetings in the Principality, 3-2/3-0/3-1 and they have won 4 of the last 7 h2h games as host and scored exactly three goals in each ( circa 5.50 on offer for them to do so today). They are coming off a fine 3-2 win at Lens where they created 5 BC's and missed a penalty in a ridiculously wide open game.
 
2 units AS Monaco to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.38 asian line. 
 
Good luck!