Updated Championship stats for xP, ITB and BC ............
Nov 06, 2020
Championship:
Reading 22 /11 52-57 14-11
Swansea 19 / 19 87-59 16-9
Norwich 18/ 20 110-59 19-13
Watford 18 /11 65-64 13-13
Bournemouth 17/ 17 80-61 14-9
Middlesbrough 17 /16 74-53 17-9
Bristol C 17/ 16 75-79 14-16
Millwall 16/13 74-60 11-10
Luton 16/11 64-77 14-12
Brentford 15/ 22 84-62 27-9
Stoke 15 /13 66-70 14-9
Preston 13/16 68-75 18-17
Cardiff 13/ 17 81-61 15-17
Birmingham 13/13 78-81 13-13
Huddersfield 13/11 71-87 15-17
QPR 13/13 71-70 15-19
Blackburn 11/20 95-80 26-14
Barnsley 10/13 63-70 17-19
Rotherham 9/9 66-79 10-25
Nottm. Forest 9/16 77-65 16-19
Coventry 8/5 58-94 13-23
Wycombe 7/10 62-113 12-20
Derby 6/3 62-84 6-19
Sheff.Weds 5/8 59-82 10-17
10 rounds played.
Teams are in league table order, there are four sets of numbers alongside each team, the first is their actual points total, followed by their xP in blue type, ITB numbers created and conceded follow in dark type, followed by BC's for and against in red.
For example, leaders Reading have 22 points, but should only have half that number (11), they have produced 52 attempts from ITB, giving up 57, creating 14 BC's , whilst conceding 11.
Sheffield Wednesday started with a 12 point deduction (now reduced to six) , so their xP of 8 , is actually 14 (14-6 =8) and better than 13 other teams.
Top 3 for xp are Brentford/Norwich/ Blackburn.
Top 3 for net ITB are Norwich/Swansea/Brentford.
Top 3 for net BC's are Brentford/ Blackburn/Middlesbrough.
I have a lot more to say, but will save that for a day when we are previewing games. As always, what we are looking for are swings away from base numbers, teams suddenly putting up improved or worse numbers over the last 3-6 starts, especially when they are yet to be reflected in results, that almost always give us a good edge. Tomorrow I can tell you about a team who are 33-6 for ITB and 8-2 for BC across their last three starts and priced at HUGE odds and another who has failed to create an attempt of note in 7/10 starts.
Glossary
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good luck !
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