Round of 32 , last five seasons, that's 80 games at this first leg stage have seen 31 home wins ( 38.75%) , 25 draws ( 31.25%) and 24 aways ( 30%) which equates to odds of 2.58 /3.125/ 3.33 and highlights the close nature of the opening tie. This is further emphasized by "only" 30 producing three or more goals (37.5% odds 2.67).
Of the 55 "wins" 27 have come by exactly one goal, 28 by two or more (16 by exactly two) not certain what any of that tells us beyond probably needing a good reason and decent odds to go "over".
70yo head coach Yuri Semin (pictured) is in his fourth spell in charge of Lokomotiv Moscow, he has taken them eight points clear at the top of Premier Liga after 20 rounds and on course for their first title since 2004 , they have actually won twice before in 04 and 02 and Semin was also at the helm for both of those and he just knows what makes this club tick. In total, as player and coach he has spent 23 years here. Semin has also taken teams to the last four of European competitions three times (Lokomotiv and Dynamo Kiev) and we can be sure with such a big lead domestically, that his team will be giving the Europa League their best shot. Russian teams always treat this competition with great respect, they have to battle through this round as the winter break leaves them at a disadvantage, but that swings later in the season, when they are fresher than most, witness the wins of CSKA and clubgowi favourites Zenit.
Semin has a HUGELY experienced squad and has got the very best out of them including Eder, Ari, Jefferson Farfan, Verdan Corluka and bad boy but supremely talented Igor Denisov who could start an argument in an empty room, but who has thrived at Lokomotiv and been made captain. What a career he should have had (it was still pretty good, he was wonderful in that great Zenit team), but Denisov has been demoted to the second team at all the clubs he has ever represented due to criticism of the head coach and just cannot keep quiet. Having said that, it finally looks like he has found one he respects and this is the last chance to win something big for all these players. The league title would be great and looks likely, a deep run in this the icing on the cake and some international recognition.
Nice are a pale imitation of the team who finished top 4 in the last two seasons and are conceding far more freely ( most of any team inside the top 12) and scoring less frequently , they have already lost five times at home and play with far too high a defensive line and with massive gaps between the two centre backs at times, some of the defending at Dijon last weekend was awful and they will get punished for anything similar this evening. Lokomotiv have played more than a dozen warm up games, most with a very settled side, so know what they will be going with tonight, we have to take on trust that they will be ready, but odds are good enough for us to do that.
1.5 units Lokomotiv Moscow +0.25 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
