2024/25				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Inter	32	21	8	3	72	31	+41	71	WXWW	16	12	3	1	37	18	16	9	5	2	35	13
	2		Napoli	32	20	8	4	51	25	+26	68	WXWO	16	12	2	2	26	11	16	8	6	2	25	14
	3		Atalanta	32	18	7	7	65	30	+35	61	WLLL	16	8	4	4	31	19	16	10	3	3	34	11
	4		Juventus	32	15	14	3	49	30	+19	59	WXWL	17	9	7	1	27	15	15	6	7	2	22	15
	5		Bologna	32	15	12	5	51	37	+14	57	LXWW	16	9	6	1	30	14	16	6	6	4	21	23
	6		Lazio	32	16	8	8	53	43	+10	56	XWXL	16	7	7	2	30	22	16	9	1	6	23	21
	7		Roma	32	15	9	8	47	32	+15	54	XXWW	16	10	2	4	32	14	16	5	7	4	15	18
	8		Fiorentina	32	15	8	9	49	32	+17	53	OXWW	17	10	4	3	27	15	15	5	4	6	22	17
	9		Milan	32	14	9	9	51	37	+14	51	WXLW	16	7	7	2	25	14	16	7	2	7	26	23
	10		Torino	32	9	13	10	36	37	-1	40	LXXW	15	5	6	4	14	13	17	4	7	6	22	24

 

Big game for all four teams ( see table above), although Milan are in an odd position, and whilst they would accept Europa League football for next season, I doubt they would be as well disposed to the Conference.  However, we do have a huge game on Wednesday hanging over these fixtures like the Sword of Damocles ( I was a little obsessed by that parable and especially the Richard Westall painting as a child), the Coppa Italia semi final second leg Milan derby, with the scores tied at 1-1. Inter also have the small matter of their Champions League semi final with Barcelona on the near horizon and they play six games, all huge, in a 16 day period and you do feel something will have to give.

 

Inter had their tough second leg with Bayern in midweek and have struggled in recent seasons with Bologna, with the hosts unbeaten in three trips to Milan and winning 2 of 3 h2h meetings on home soil. It is hard to see how Bologna are going to clinch top 4 and a return to the Champions League without winning today, although 5th might still be good enough if Inter were to win the CL, but they are not favourites to do so. Inter will also not give up the title lightly, but would stay in first with a draw and on goal difference (h2h with Napoli is all square) were they to lose, so I think that Bologna off level ball has to be the shout.

 

 

Atalanta are the second biggest scorers in Serie A and also hold the same position for xG. Milan comes in third for xG with an additional 10 goals and both they and the visitors should have conceded an extra 4-5 each. The last four h2h meetings have seen BTS in each and an average of 3.25 goals and I expect those trends to continue. Over 3 goals will be my call, but I am keen on the 2-2 draw if you want to be BRAVE, that would see the Bergamo side hold a three point advantage over Juventus who play tomorrow and also allow Milan to go into their game with Inter on an unbeaten run of four games. Milan's last 10 starts have seen BTS in 9 and also in 8 of 9 here in the San Siro.

 

 

Good luck!