Last five seasons have seen the 20 quarter final first legs end with an 11-6-3 split, so 55% home wins, just 15% going to the visitor. 55% have also gone over, including all the three away wins.
Ahead of the last round I spoke about some reservations about Bayern .........
Ahead of the first leg I wrote ............
I have spoken before about my "issues" with Bayern and that I do not feel they are tested enough at domestic level and that makes things very tough for them once we get into the business end of the Champions League and it really has to be an exceptional Bayern, and we have seen the odd version of that down the years, to thrive. I am not certain this is one of them. However, oddsmakers always seem to price their games in the competition as though they are and circa 25-1 for Besiktas to win is too big for my money.
The visitors look decent and have lost just 2/24 in all competitions and already won away to Porto (3-1), Monaco (2-1) and to RB Leipzig (2-1), the only side to have won all three of their away games in the Champions League this season and the latter will have been a good training exercise for today. Visiting head coach Senol Gunes has lost just 2/18 in the competition proper, one was seven years ago and in addition to the three wins this season, he has also overseen away victories at Inter Milan and Napoli.He seems confident in build up and said yesterday: "Our work is difficult but we do not regard this difficulty as a negativity. "We will try to play our own game. "We will do our job well. "Tomorrow we will score a goal or goals which will give us an advantage." They also have huge experience on the field, especially in the backline with Real Madrid legend Pepe, former Barcelona left back Adriano having 149 Champions League starts between them and with the former and Gary Medel in the line up, you know there will be plenty of "bite" to go along with the know how. Upfront Anderson Talisca , Ricardo Quaresma, Wagner Love, Alvaro Negredo and Ryan Babel give them options and again, huge experience. They are not a team you see "freezing" in the Allianz Arena.
Bayern are once again dominating the Bundesliga and lead by 19 points, but have "only" won 5 of their 23 starts by more than two goals and only one of their last six knockout stage home games in this competition have come by more than a single goal. They are treating this very seriously and rotated ten players last weekend, they will probably win, but I doubt it will be along with a clean sheet and I expect this to still be in the balance for the return......2-1.
Bayern won 5-0, but the game was ruined as a contest when Domagoj Vida was sent off for the visitors after 16 minutes , despite which, Besiktas had the better early chances and were brave and inventive on the attack and should have scored. It was always going to be a matter of time after they were a man short, but I saw enough to feel it would have been a game at 11 v 11. Of course, this tie is now over, Bayern can dream about the last eight and the upcoming draw and need not overly worry about the Bundesliga, but they could officially be crowned champions before the end of March and against Dortmund at the Allianz Arena and I guess they would like to do that, so maybe they will be thinking about the weekend trip to Leipzig and Bayern would not be German if they did not take a pragmatic approach to tonight's game and it would be crazy to pick up a needless injury or suspension in a "meaningless" tie. Robben is out, Lewandowski, Kimmich and Rudy all face suspensions if they receive another yellow card and it is unlikely that any of them play. We might see Sandro Wagner lead the offense in his first Champions League start for Bayern.
Besiktas have won all three Super Lig games subsequently and are second in the table , three points adrift of Galatasaray (still to play) and above Başakşehir on goal difference and they travel to the third placed club on Sunday and that now has to be their priority. They are also without both starting central defenders in Dukso Tosic and Pepe while Vida will serve his suspension, add in the injury to back up Atnic Nukan and that will leave 20 yo Fatih Aksoy who has 18 minutes of first team football to his name and , I assume ,1.71m Gary Medel in the middle of the backline ! Or someone else out of position. I really wanted to back Besiktas but that just makes it impossible, regardless of the Bayern line up and it is not as though Ribery, Vidal, James, Muller etc do not give them a big threat in any case. Bayern also came to the Emirates last year at this stage with a 5-1 lead and won 5-1 again, scoring 10 on aggregate.
Both to score this time I think, possibly twice and I will suggest as the best value .......
That played out better with Bayern winning 3-1 and we recouped our money from the first leg with a little interest. But again, I saw nothing to make those concerns totally fade away.
Sevilla played Manchester United in the round of 16 and ahead of the second leg my notes included ............
United head coach Jose Mourinho is a "master tactician" but too negative to be respected by the masses, he used to be funny/odd in interviews and good value because of that, but that persona has turned grumpy and worn thin and he is hard to love when not in charge of your team and even then, as a fan you have to adapt a pragmatic approach, which he certainly does. They came away from Seville with a 0-0 draw thanks to David de Gea in the United goal (8 saves) and some woeful finishing from the home side who had 25 attempts on goal and faced no offensive threat of note from the Reds. I am sorry, a result at any cost is not for me.
Sevilla have played more european games than anyone in the last few years and in addition to winning the Europa League three seasons running from 13/14 to 15/16 they have also played another 22 Champions League games and know that 0-0 at home is not a terrible result and that it still gives you options. They have scored in all four road games this season in the competition and in the 23 Eurupa League games played outside of Seville, they scored in 18, two or more goals in 15 and also at Liverpool in the group stage back in September. I expect them to score tonight, would be surprised if they didn't, so feel United need two to win this as a minimum and any value in the "to qualify" market is, for me, with the visitors @ circa 2.96.
They won 2-1 and sometimes justice is done and, as I love to say, you win little in modern football with a (too) defensive mindset. I am not accusing Bayern of that, but I feel they will face the kind of test today that they all too rarely do and Sevilla, who were all over Barcelona at the weekend for 88 minutes have the talent and european experience to trouble the Bavarian giants this evening. This is also noteworthy,
Bayern have lost on their last five trips to Spain, whereas Sevilla are unbeaten in 11 games against German opposition. The suspension to Ever Banega is far from ideal, but odds make it a no brainer for me and I take the hosts to keep this alive for the second leg. I often talk about a pragmatic approach from German sides and Bayern are well aware they have five players a booking away from missing the second leg and will not want to go into that 2-3 players short.
1.5 units Sevilla +0.75 ball 2.20 asian line/ Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
