UEFA Champions League betting tip: Ferencvaros - Young Boys
Aug 24, 2021
UEFA Champions League: Ferencvaros - Young Boys (2-3)
Ahead of Ferencvaros' home tie in the previous round I wrote ............
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Ferencvaros have landed two very small bets for us already in this competition ...............
Clubs taking part today who will have budgeted for a good slice of that huge prize fund include Ludogorets (see above) they have played in the group stage of one the two big competitions in 7/8 years, Cluj, Malmo and Ferencvaros who are a "name" club back on the rise and who built on a Europa League group stage in 2019-20 , to make into the Champions League group stage 12 months ago and now have a taste for the money and glory. Dinamo Zagreb are top of the pile, they have played group stage football in 13/14 seasons and their forecast accounts will come up short were they not to make it and heads would roll ! These clubs are the Bayern/ Barcelona/ Real/ Man City of qualification.
Even making it past this round will give clubs a second chance of group stage football , as next round losers go to Europa League qualifying, so this is huge and no one can afford to slip up.
Ferencvaros lead 3-0 and outclassed FC Prishtina from Kosovo in the first leg, with the visitor not having an attempt on target. FCP had to prequalify with games against teams from San Marino and Andorra to reach this stage and that was probably their target. The Hungarian side will doubtless be fitter this evening and football will be buoyed by the exploits of the national team in the Euros and if they "try" this evening, another two goal win seems likely. Ferencvaros knocked out Djurgardens, Celtic, Dinamo Zagreb and Molde (made R16 in Europa League) in qualifying last year, some massive and impressive scalps there.
Ferencvaros won that second leg 3-1 and now host Zalgiris of Lithuania who have already reached "their stage" having lost 5/5 Qualifying Round 2 ties and we can expect another comfortable home win for the ever improving hosts.
They have won all four CL games by 2 goals and are very motivated to qualify now that they have a taste of all those CL euros, but will need to up their game and Slavia are another "name" and will be equally hungry. The visitors won a third straight Czech title last season when they were unbeaten domestically, doing the double and reaching the last 8 of the Europa League.In the playoff round of the CL they lost 4-1 to Midtjylland on aggregate, but eliminated Leicester City and Rangers in the Europa League and ahead of the leg in Glasgow , where they won 2-0, my very lengthy notes included ...........
Ahead of last week's first leg I wrote ..............
Slavia Prague are having a fantastic season, they are unbeaten through 22 games in 1.Liga and hold an 11 point lead over Sparta, Czech teams always show this competition huge respect and they were firmly in charge of the two R32 games with Leicester City and scored eight goals in their three home group stage games where they faced a trio of strong opponents.
Slavia dominated and led early, before Rangers equalised and held the upper hand through the middle third of the game, Slavia ended on the front foot and looked to have scored the winner, but visiting veteran goalkeeper Allan McGregor made what has been dubbed a "wonder save", somehow clawing out a ball which looked to have already passed him. Still a lot of football to be played this evening and I doubt that Rangers will get the open game they crave and have thrived in this season domestically and in Europe .Slavia showed in that 2-0 away win at Premier League highfliers Leicester City in the last round how tactically aware they are and they will have learned a lot from the first leg.Slavia lost Vladimir Coufal and midfielder Tomas Soucek to West Ham last year and several more of their players are attracting interest from Premier League teams and will be playing not just for the win and to impress, but a big money move. Soucek told his team mates before that game that they were a better team than the Foxes and so it proved, at least on the night.
Slavia head coach Jindrich Trpisovsky said: "We know that Rangers are a tough, strong and resilient opponent and it will be very difficult to make them play our own way, but we have had time to prepare."They will not rush forward. "They have fast players and will wait for our mistakes and launch counter-attacks. "I expect a similar game to those in the Czech league when we hold the ball and the other team relies on dangerous quick attacks."
Slavia are about a point longer than for last week's game and with home field advantage lessened in these COVID times and having already shown themselves suited to playing on the road, those odds feel too big.
They lost to Arsenal in the last 8 stage, but no shame in that and they are going to provide stern opposition. However, it all comes down to odds and those on Ferencvaros are big and they will not want to be making the relatively short trip to Prague trailing. Good chance of a draw, but I think decent value with Ferencvaros off level ball.
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They won 2-0 and prior to the away leg I updated with ...............
They have won all five qualifying games by two goals and clearly fear no one , yet continue to be underrated. Slavia need to throw caution to the wind and look to score those two goals (minimum) and have a fearsome home record domestically , but Arsenal did inflict a heavy defeat on them here in Prague scoring four goals and they drew with and might have lost to Rangers, however unjust that might have been and they also drew 0-0 here with Midtjylland (Ferencvaros would consider themselves better/on a par) and Leicester last season , when they seemed happier on the road. Ferencvaros are on the rise, only Barcelona have beaten them by more than a single goal in 15 away games in Europe .
They lost that 1-0 but progressed , despite having to play the last 12 minutes or so with 10 men.
They also lost the first leg to Young Boys last week 3-2, so need to play catch up this time and against a talented team, albeit one with a head coach I just do not like. I did side with YB against Cluj in the previous qualifying round when I noted .............
I talk sometimes of teams or head coaches drinking in the last chance saloon and that surely applies to David Wagner, who has taken over at Young Boys this season. His recent record is beyond awful and I hated the way he had both Huddersfield Town and Schalke playing and all I can say is that this guy must interview well !
What I will say in his favour is that he tends to start well at clubs and as he has only been at Young Boys for two months, there is no real need for me to start berating him just yet. He inherited a team who had just won the Super League for the fourth season running and by 31 points , with a +45 goal difference, such was their dominance that only two other teams had a positive GD and they were +7 and+3 ! They made the last 16 of the Europa League last season and will be expecting another lengthy run in Europe and reaching the CL group stage would buy Wagner a lot of goodwill and look good on his CV and he needs that. They have yet to fire under him, but look a class side and as good as Cluj have been in Europe recently, Young Boys bossed the first leg, it ended 1-1, but they were 18-6 attempts, 7-1 on target, 9-2 ITB and 0-5 saves, with 74% possession and the Romanian side are going to have to dodge just as many, if not more bullets this evening and will be spending most of the game on the back foot and their goal last week was clearly offside . YB look a level above this version of Cluj and if Wagner stays out of the way and lets his players get on with things, it should be a comfortable home win.
I don't feel Wagner is brave enough and I can easily see him reverting to type and wanting to set up to protect the lead and play a style that doesn't suit his squad, or play to their strengths. The visitors have some injury and suspension issues and have drawn both CL away starts and under the new coach have kept just two clean sheets in 10 starts. I see the hosts chance to win as greater than 30% and with YB happy with the draw, big value in Ferencvaros off level ball.
2.25 units Ferencvaros level ball 2.46 asian line.
Good luck !
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