UEFA Champions League betting preview: Bayern Munich- Atletico Madrid
UEFA Champions League: Bayern Munich- Atletico Madrid
My notes on last week's first leg are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off and my thoughts remain largely unchanged. Atletico won 1-0 and continue to be underestimated , they will run until they drop and then get up and start all over again and are as tactically strong under Diego Simeone as any team in world football. They are about a lot more than that, but their biggest strength is to be both talented and able to carry out a game plan and despite giving up a lot of possession, they allow very few attempts on goal. They have not conceded for over 600 minutes in all competitions and have kept a clean sheet in 16 of 20 starts in the Champions League, including against Juventus (twice), Real Madrid, Bayern and Barcelona, the cream of european football.
Atletico are also not predictable, they do not usually press as high up the field as some and yet at times in the quarter final with Barcelona, they were doing so as much as any team I have ever seen and often with seven players (see preview below) ! Having said that, one constant is around their own goal where they work so hard and force opponents to shoot from distance, they boss all stat categories around the box, are very difficult to complete a short pass against and that is how most of the top teams are looking to score, most of the time. That is why, for me, their record is so strong against the better teams, they are the best team without the ball by far, no one can reproduce what they do and opponents get so few games to work on a way to combat it, they will come up with one eventually, but for now, odds against Atletico, with more than a half goal start ,at any venue is wrong, and simply has to be taken. Given that Bayern had almost 70% of the ball, it is also noteworthy that both Torres and Griezmann's average position was as high up the pitch as Lewandowski's and in addition to all the problems Atletico give teams when out of possession, they are very dangerous and play at great speed when they have it !
1.5 units Atletico Madrid +0.75 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
I suspect that Diego Simeone and his team will stick with their game plan, look to mainly defend and frustrate Barce and to try and win 1-0, the scoreline which would see them progress on the away goal rule. Barcelona do not need to win to progress and might be similarly happy to play out the opening period quietly and will be mindful that when they lost out to Atletico at this stage two years ago, it was a very similar scenario, 1-0 would see the hosts progress and they took a very early lead and then played like the away team, sat back and dared Barce to break them down. To be honest, the home side were much the better team for me in that game, despite having only 36% possession and flew out of the blocks, hitting the woodwork three times in the opening 19 minutes ! Maybe they will tear at the visitors again from the off, the home crowd will definitely be willing them to do so, but whether the goal comes early or late, I favour Atletico and feel that all the value remains with them and that odds of 2.30 + off level ball are wrong about two well matched teams and there are plenty of scorelines by which the hosts can win and Barce still be in the competition after 90 minutes, which I always feel is a bonus in these situations.
Atletico have been drifting like a barge over the last 24 hours, some of you don't like that (to oppose the money), that is fine, but I like to stick to my guns (which has always worked out well long term) and the only change that I have had to make is increasing my stake a liitle, which as you know is odds related and (almost) outside of my control ! Late edit: odds dropped a little again just before sending down from 2.36/
Diego Godín is out for the home side, but we have know about that for some time and Atleti have won 5/6 in his absence this season.
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