Today's subscriber newsletter ............
Jul 27, 2021
Tuesday July 27th
Schedule for the rest of this week is pretty standard, one email each day @ 10:00 UK time , apart from Friday when it will be at 08:30, in case we cover the single J-League game taking place that day (10:00 kick off) .
Japan: J-League 1:
The two JL-1 games taking place this week are two catch up games for Gamba Osaka following their early season COVID issues.
Gamba Osaka - Oita Trinita (11:00 kick off )
Gamba are one spot and point outside the bottom three , albeit with four games in hand on most teams, Oita are two places and one point further back, having played three games more than their hosts.
Oita have not played for 17 days since they edged past Urawa Reds 1-0 in Oita ahead of which my notes spoke about their awful form .............
Ahead of a trip to Consadole Sapporo in mid June I wrote ................
it is hard not to see them (Consadole) beating struggling Oita today. The visitors numbers were actually not bad until recently, when they were battered at home by Marinos (whom Consadole have just beaten over two legs), the scoreline only said 0-1, but the stats read more like 0-4. Oita lost too many key players in the offseason, something we discussed earlier in the campaign and have already lost 10 times .
They lost that 2-0 and have not scored either in three subsequent losses, across all four they were a combined 2-11 for BC's and averaged 4.0 attempts ITB, which is simply not good enough.
It was a much improved showing from Oita, but a total no show from Urawa who created almost nothing from 95 minutes of football through which they had 71% possession, that means little in modern football, but the fact they did so little offensively is probably noteworthy, but might say more about Reds than Oita. As a starting point, I am expecting Gamba to see plenty of the ball.
Gamba are coming off a home game with Antlers at the weekend when I wrote .............
I might have backed the visitors at 2.25 + but think odds on quotes for them are wrong, win, lose or hopefully draw, the price feels far too short. Games between these two old rivals are invariably close, 4 of the last 5 h2h meetings have ended all square and Antlers have scored either zero or one goal in each of their last 7 visits to play Gamba in Osaka. Draws are up some 5% in J-L1 currently over recent campaigns and Gamba games are averaging just 1.47 goals and they have drawn 10/17 first halves and with Antlers having scored inside 81 minutes in just one of their last five starts, it is easy to see this game settling into a pattern early.
It was 0-0 at half time and still scoreless as we entered the 73rd minute and it looked good for that draw, but Antlers forced a late winner (1-0). It was fully deserved, but Gamba will welcome the lesser level of opposition and 72.2 % of their points have come versus bottom half of the table teams (just one defeat) and they are 2-2-0 in the four of those played in Osaka, conceding just one goal.
Oita are 1-0-9 on the road and lost both games to Gamba last season by a single goal. The home side play 4/5 away from Osaka after this and the home games in that sequence is to 4th placed Marinos, so in addition to seeing more of the ball than usual, they should be hungry for the points and 17 days is a long break without playing and Gamba might be match fresher in that regard.
1.75 units Gamba Osaka -0.5 ball 2.20 asian line.
I will make that the official selection, but Gamba to win by exactly one goal at circa 3.80 looks decent value if you want a bigger priced option.
Oita have scored a JL-1 low five second half goals, none on the road.
UEFA Champions League: Omonia Nicosia- Dinamo Zagreb
We have done ok with the Champions League qualifiers so far, but tomorrow is the more interesting day.
By the way, is everyone aware that the away goal rule has now been abolished from all UEFA club competitions ? Well, it has !
Early this month I noted .............
For some teams just playing at this stage is a success, but for others competing over the next month, failure to play Champions League group stage football would be very hard felt and is just "unacceptable" given the hit to their spending power. The prize money just to reach the group stage is now up to 15.7m euros and if you could even finish third, collecting say six points and then play Europa League we could be talking about 25-28m as a minimum.
Clubs taking part today who will have budgeted for a good slice of that huge prize fund include Ludogorets (see above) they have played in the group stage of one the two big competitions in 7/8 years, Cluj, Malmo and Ferencvaros who are a "name" club back on the rise and who built on a Europa League group stage in 2019-20 , to make into the Champions League group 12 months ago and now have a taste for the money and glory. Dinamo Zagreb are top of the pile, they have played group stage football in 13/14 seasons and their forecast accounts will come up short were they not to make it and heads would roll ! These clubs are the Bayern/ Barcelona/ Real/ Man City of qualification.
This is a very big deal for both, but Dinamo are hungry after coming up short in QR3 last season and then making the last eight of the Europa League. It was still a hugely successful campaign, but the CL is the holy grail and they will fight tooth and nail this evening to hold on to their 2-0 first leg lead. It is going to be pushing 40 degrees (38+) in Nicosia at kick off and will feel like playing in a sauna and if you offered Dinamo a one goal defeat , they would snatch your hand off and stay in Zagreb.
Omonia made it to the playoff round last season, beating Legia Warsaw and Crvena Zvezda and lost out narrowly to Olympiakos who are big players on the European stage. They look to have improved further under head coach Henning Berg and won the domestic title in May by 5 points, it was their 21st title, but first in 11 years and a very big deal. They will strip fitter today with the Zagreb leg their first competitive fixture of the new season, despite which they created more chances than Dinamo and they look overpriced today given that the visitors will not be too concerned to lose by a single goal.
The visitors have not only the home side, passionate crowd and gruelling conditions to overcome, but Arijan Ademi and Luka Inanusec both left the first leg with injuries and the former will not play this evening.
1.75 units Omonia Nicosia level ball 2.26 asian line.
Good luck !
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