There is a follow up newsletter today @ 16.00 UK time with the final look this week at English football outright markets and I think I have some really interesting stuff in those notes.
Schedule for the rest of this week .............
Email #1 @ 10.00 UK time with focus on Ligue 2.
Email #2 @ 16.00 with a look at the Saturday "morning" J-League games.
Saturday 17/10
Email #1 @ 09.00 with the English Premier and Football League fixtures.
Email #2 @11.00 rounding up the rest of the Saturday football action.
Sunday 18/10
Email #1 @ 10.00 including early football kick offs and golf.
Email #2 @13.00 with late Sunday football, main focus on Brazilian matches.
Email #3 @16.00 featuring NFL.
A win for Atletico Mineiro last night saw them close to within two points of Corinthians at the top of the table and the leaders will want to extend that back up to five by following suit this evening. The top two will have clear priorities ahead of their meeting in Belo Horizonte in 17 days time, AMG will be looking to reduce the deficit to three or less, Corinthians will want to make the trip with as big an advantage as possible, but definitely 4 points +, which would take the pressure off that potentially title deciding game.
The hosts have been very solid against bottom ten teams, posting a 7-0-0 record at home with a 16-1 goal difference, winning five by 2+ goals, on the road they are 5-3-0 versus the same teams and remember how difficult it is to win away in Brazil, that means that they have collected 2.6 pts per game when playing any bottom ten side and are keeping a clean sheet in 67% of those meetings. Gois are in trouble, two points from safety, they are not yet a lost cause, as the four teams directly above them are all within three points, they are going to have to up their game , but I doubt it will be in fixtures like this, or Sunday's trip to Santos which will ultimately decide their fate, but how they fare against the other strugglers and in all home starts from now on in. Corinthians have scored five goals in two of the last three h2h meetings in SP and whilst that might not be possible this evening, I do expect another two goal win . Since early June when Corinthians hit their stride, they are 8-1-0 next time out when coming off a draw or defeat , they get a couple of defenders back tonight who were not available for the 2-2 draw at Ponte Preta last time out and it is difficult to see Goias stopping another bounce back performance. Also returning from international duty and named as starters are
Gil and Renato Augusto (pictured), they should have been three up at PP before some very sloppy and un-Corinthians like defending let the home side take the lead and we can expect a far more professional and disciplined showing this evening and with so many more options, a comfortable win.
1.75 units Corinthians -1.25 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Most of you know that I am very keen on Santos and I am quite proud of the fact that I highlighted them as a team to watch out for back in July, since when, their progress has been fairly relentless. I spoke about this ahead of their home game with Chapecoense at the beginning of last month ....
I see this match as similar to the recent Santos- Avai game, notes on which are reproduced in full below the "good luck" sign off (edit: see the Thursday newsletter). I spoke there about how I had targeted Santos as a potential improver in early July, I was about a week early, they sat in 17th place two points off the bottom of the table just eight weeks ago, now they are in 9th, 17 above Vasco who are in last place and just four points adrift of a Copa Libertadores spot and having knocked league leaders Corinthians out of the Copa do Brasil ! They are unbeaten in ten, have scored two or more goals in seven of those, including that 5-2 defeat of Avai. Now it is poor travellers Chapecoense who are in town and Santos will be looking for a repeat of last year's 3-0 win in this fixture and the three points which will take them up to a dizzy 7th spot.
They won that 3-1 and ahead of their next road game I wrote .....whilst their away form, like most teams in Brazil, has left a little to be desired, there have been recent signs that that was changing (for them and the league in general) and they have now kept back to back clean sheets in their last two road league games taking four points and also posted a road win at league leaders Corinthians in the Copa do Brasil. They have all the momentum in the world, have proved that they can win without Lucas Lima and a visit to Recife to face a team who have gone the opposite direction and failed to win in eight,or score in two, or in two of three home starts, should hold few fears. Santos played some wonderful free flowing football in midweek (link) and on another day would have scored six, Corinthians aside, I doubt there is a better team in Brazil right now. If you watch those highlights look out for #11 Geuvânio who is an absolute joy to watch, he scored the second goal and also veteran striker Ricardo Oliveira who scored the other two goals, he is at the peak of his powers right now .
They drew that and have still only won once on the road all season in the league and that is fairly poor, even in Serie A where I have banged on and on about the big homefield advantage............
The rest of today's match previews are only avavilable to subscribers to the clubgowi newsletter service.
Good Luck.
