Both Arsenal and Villa have upcoming midweek Champions League games. The Gunners go to Madrid on Wednesday to play Real holding a 3-0 lead. THe Villans host PSG looking to overturn a 3-1 defeat in Paris.

 

As soon as the CL draw was made I made a big circle around Arsenal-Brentford as, being the filling in a Real Madrid sandwich, felt the ideal time for the Bees to be visiting the Emirates and, if the Gunners had won the first leg by 1 or even 2 goals it would have been perfect for the West London giants. However, three goals is a bit different and it is 23 months since Arsenal lost to anyone by 3. Having said that, even as beaten,  bloodied, shocked and lost as Real looked in midweek, you can never rule them out totally in this competition. The Madrid giants have scored 19 goals in six home games in the CL this season and faced European elite in three of those and in the last two years have beaten Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool at the Bernabeu. No one ever feels Real are beaten until the final whistle goes and that goes double in "their" competition. So, in truth, I am a little confused about how Arsenal will approach today. Brentford have scored in all four competitive visits to the Emirates and have won 5 of 6 road games, scoring 15 goals and it should have been more and they felt robbed at Newcastle last week. The Bees have a lot of pace in the starting 11 and off the bench again now and can trouble anyone, but it is also true that they are really only jostling for position in the EPL and only 10th place is realistically up for grabs, but that would be a big achievement for a club of their size.

 

Villa are in a very odd position, as they will feel they can turn their tie around as they are strong at Villa Park and they "only" trail by 2. However, they have to try and finish top 5 and as such, three points here at St Mary's is hugely important and it is at this point I would usually say that they risk being caught between two stools. That seems less likely on this occasion as they are playing Southampton who appear desperate to break the record for lowest points total in the EPL! They would have to "lose out" to claim that, as that record is 11 and they already have 10 points, but they are 2-7-34 in the EPL since March 2023 so don't totally rule that out! Of course I jest and no one want that record and now that relegation is confirmed, any pressure they might have felt has been lifted, but the players are playing for jobs and in one or two cases a move away, so will be looking to impress and also, their last four performances have shown a little more goal threat and improvement and last week ahead of their trip to Tottenham I highlighted that......Saints are the worst team in the EPL, but their last three performances were improved and they scored in each, including at Anfield, "beating" Wolves by 1.0 xG and led inform Palace for 72 minutes and I expect them to score today.

 

They kept battling even at 2-0 down and pulled a goal back and they can score for the 5th game running today and for the 5th time in 6 home starts.

 

 

 

 

Last six h2h meetings here at the Etihad have finished 2-2/4-2/0-2/4-0/2-2/2-3 and that was when City were good! To continue the two goals for Palace trend, the last two at Selhurst Park have played out 2-2/2-4. City have more at stake in the league, but were poor at Old Trafford last week in the Manchester derby where both teams showed limited ambition and it was like watching paint dry!

 

The Eagles opened the season 1-6-6 and are subsequently 10-4-3 averaging 2.0 points per game, which equates to second place form and they are also in the FA Cup semi finals. We have been here before with teams coached by Oliver Glasner and others he has managed have started the season slowly and ended it on fire and even last season Palace picked up 19 points in the first half of the season, 31 in the second. The visitors also look ideally suited to playing on the road where they have the pace and excellence in transition to trouble any one and two goals for the sixth time in seven visits has to be the shout.

 

 

Good luck!