The second half of yesterday's newsletter ...................

Jul 09, 2020

You saw the first half of yesterday's newsletter with the J-league notes (previous post) and to complete the picture I have reproduced the European previews below. It was a good day all round, but what I feel is of more interest is that you can see how the newsletters tell a story, the ending of which is never on that one day . You saw recent Sassuolo notes ahead of their win at Fiorentina last midweek and they were allied to the fact that Bologna were /are incapable of keeping a clean sheet and similarly, the Fiorentina home issues were again the main focus of their notes yesterday.....................

Championship: Birmingham City- Swansea City

Swansea and Cardiff are very big rivals and both trying to secure what looks increasingly like one remaining playoff spot, although Forest are doing their best to make that two ! The Bluebirds loss last night would have been enjoyable for the Swans and opens up that postseason race. If Swansea win tonight they close to within a point of their most hated rival and keep their season alive.

The Blues need a result to stop their rot, but are winless in nine and they have failed to to score in 3/4 including their last two and they have conceded three goals in each of their last four starts here at St Andrews. They came against Hull, Wednesday, Reading and Huddersfield, all teams with issues and/or scoring problems and inferior to Swansea, who have themselves scored 10 goals in their last five road games and won the reverse fixture 3-0. In that the Blues had just 27% possession ( I know it doesn't mean much, but that is super low in the Championship) and zero attempts on target.

1.75 units Swansea City -0.5 ball 2.61 asian line/Sportmarket.

Serie A:

Fiorentina- Cagliari

Bologna - Sassuolo

Last midweek I previewed Fiorentina - Sassuolo..............

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Fiorentina's last home game was a visit from basement club Brescia .......

Fiorentina have a net seasonal +185 ITB advantage over Brescia and are +45 for the last eight games, through which the basement club have created very few attempts ITB on goal. Brescia are nine points from safety and have won just four times all season (losing 18) and it is tough to make a case for them putting in a survival bid, or even being good enough to do so. All they have is a need and they will have to gamble and look for maximum points in all games, but nothing in any of their statistics to indicate that they are capable of going toe toe toe with anyone or that they can keep things tight and try to steal a goal on the break. Fiorentina are almost certainly the best bottom half of the table team, ranking 9th for xP and 8th for ITB, they are not yet safe from relegation fears, but a couple of wins should ensure their safety and after that I suspect they will look at a top ten finish, having been top 8 in six of the last seven seasons. On paper it is easy to see one of those wins coming today .

Brescia have lost 12/13 starts against teams with positive ITB numbers , but have scored in 8 of those and 9 of those defeats came by exactly one goal. Now things get further complicated, Fiorentina have conceded in 21 of 28 home games and their last three wins have all been by a single goal, but most incredible of all,is that in that sequence (28 games) they have actually won just four a 14.29% win rate and do we really want to get involved in a team winning 1/7 as host across a 20 month period regardless of quality of opposition ? 50% (14) of those games have been draws.

We went with BTS and it finished 1-1, the hosts created plenty of chances, but only two of real note and that record of just four wins in 29 starts as host is not just poor, it is criminal ! Such runs are also very difficult to get out of, the issues become deep rooted and manifest themselves as soon as the opposition score or equalise , or if a goal doesn't come early. Anyway , a large red warning sign should be flashing over Fiorentina as host and we should be very wary of them at present. CB Martín Cáceres (lost last three, conceding six that he has sat out) and forward Dušan Vlahović (six goals, one assist.......only won once in 18 starts without a goal from him) will also be suspended for Fiorentina and this is another issue, ill discipline, they have finished with ten men in four of their last five starts and quite a lot seems wrong at the Stadio Artemio Franchi and head coach Giuseppe Iachini who has switched between 4-3-3 and 5-3-2 in his last two starts and was himself suspended in the latter, looks on borrowed time .

Sassuolo boss Roberto de Zerbi has been heavily touted as his replacement , but has just signed an extension at his current club and whilst you can never say never in Italian football, that now seems unlikely and who can blame him. as there is an awful lot of work to be done in Florence. His own team have made the notes several times recently and they are very good offensively, they attack quickly, with all their wide players happy to cut in and lots of vertical passing patterns with an understanding of where teammates will be, which is much rarer than it should be !

Ahead of their last away game, a trip to Inter, I noted ................

Sassuolo created 7 BC's at Atalanta last weekend, the game was over when almost all occurred but if nothing else it tells us they will not lie down at even at 0-3 early in a game and that when they throw caution to the wind they can create chances and they don't really have any relegation concerns, so no pressure on them to get a result today. That is all on Inter who need the win to stay in the title race a little longer but they have kept just 2 clean sheets in 14 starts, including conceding in 8 straight home games.

Sassuolo have scored 5 goals in four unbeaten trips to the San Siro to play Inter and lost the reverse fixture by the odd goal in seven and again they refused to lay down after trailing 4-1 with 20 minutes remaining and almost salvaged a point. It is very easy to like their attitude.

I think both will score, but odds of circa 1.8 are below my minimum.

Inter to win and BTS is 2.90 and looks ok and I have bet something small on that, but I do feel the real value might be "in running" with Sassuolo goal markets, especially if Inter are ahead by a goal or two.

That played out well , 2-1 to Inter at HT and 3-3 at the final whistle, unfortunately they did not beat Verona on Sunday, but again shared six goals and that means 10 scored in four games, including road trips to two of the top four and 14 BC's in that quartet of starts is eye catching. They "beat" Verona in terms of attempts on goal 20-7, on target 9-3, ITB 12-4, saves 0-6 (!) and corner kicks 12-2 and posted some hugely impressive passing stats.

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Sassuolo won that 3-1 and followed up with a 4-2 win over Lecce at the weekend, they have now scored 17 in their last six and probably wish there were 20 games remaining ! They have moved into the top 10 now , one point behind Bologna and a win today could take them 8th and I think they will look to ride the momentum for as long as the season allows. They are certainly on fire offensively, they have scored on their last four trips to Bologna and won the reverse fixture 3-1 , with 20 attempts, 7 on target, 12 ITB and created 5 BC's. Now the really good news, Bologna have not kept a clean sheet in 26 starts which is incredible considering they are 9th, their last at home was back in August ! In that 26 game sequence they have conceded at the rate of 1.73 pg and we have to stick with our tried and tested Sassuolo policy. CM Roberto Soriano is suspended for Bologna, they are 2-3-5 in the ten games he has missed since his arrival in the January 2019 transfer window.

Fiorentina won away to Parma over the weekend, but it is here in Florence they struggle with just 4 wins in 30 starts, would you feel comfortable taking them at odds of sub 2.0 against, well, almost anyone ? Cagliari have lowly numbers , but are very unpredictable and capable of scoring anywhere and getting a result versus any team, they have avoided defeat in 4 of 5 visits here and won the reverse fixture 5-2 , so, with positive memories of playing Fiorentina home and away and no one fearing a trip to the Stadio Artemio Franchi I am happy to take a little on the visitors getting a handicap start at good odds against. The hosts' problems are now mental rather than physical and as such, very difficult to address as I mentioned prior to the last home game ( see above). CB Germán Pezzella is suspended for Fiorentina

1.5 units Sassuolo level ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.

1.5 units Sassuolo to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.10 general quote.

1.75 units Cagliari +0.25 ball 2.32 asian line/Sportmarket.

Stay safe and good luck !