I wanted to take on Vissel Kobe at FC Tokyo last week ..........J-League stats tend to hold up well long term and we have done really well following/opposing teams who under/overperformed the previous season in recent years and we can start our first look at the new season focussing on a couple of those.

 

Vissel Kobe won their first ever title last season, it has been a long time coming and follows eight years or so of huge investment from Hiroshi Mikitani (Rakuten) with his company known as the Amazon of Asia. When it finally came, it was a surprise of sorts as they had finished 13th the season before and had been in relegation trouble for many months. Last season the xP table gave them 51 points, 20 fewer and placed them 5th-6th and there is very likely to be some levelling off and whilst they opened with a 2-0 win at newly promoted Jubilo Iwata, they lost 1-0 at home to Kashiwa Reysol last week and those two face off in the other game we are going to touch upon today.

 

They won 2-1, but did not have an attempt on target in the first half and FCT led and the game changed after the hosts were reduced to 10 men shortly after the hour mark. Now they are at home where they have already lost and hosting Sanfrecce Hiroshima who have finished 3rd in each of the last two campaigns and were statistically the best team in J-League last season, with a 25 point xP swing over Kobe. The visitors have looked really good and improved under head coach Michael Skibbe in the last two campaigns with him at the helm and at the end of last season I wrote that they have averaged 1.76 ppg from 87 matches (all competitions), xP suggests that should be 2.4 ppg on the road in 2023.

 

Hiroshima fell 8-9 goals of expected levels last season and looked to address that in the off season with the addition of Yuki Ohashi ( who has already scored three goals for his new team), Marcus Junior ( 38 top flight goals to his name)and Mutsuki Kato ( who has an assist already). They look genuine title contenders if not favourites even and are at their best on the road and we are not going to get odds like this too often and they have to be taken.

 

 

 

 

Sagan Tosu have statistically been the worst team in J-League 1 over the last two seasons averaging just 0.97 xP and 0.86 xGF across all 72 games. They operate on a small budget and lose their best players most seasons and that has again been the case coming into this campaign and I wonder how long that can continue, along with basically underperforming on the pitch and also surviving, surely something has to give.

 

Cerezo have been clubgowi favourites over the last two and a half seasons and pretty much with one play, which was for them to score two goals and that has worked incredibly well. They had finished top 5 in 4 of 6 seasons prior to last season when another top 5 finish looked likely, before they lost 6 of their last 8 with the goals drying up. They did have Leo Ceara, who is prolific at this level, last season and he scored 12 goals and had 3 assists, but needed help and got it big time in this last window with the addition of countryman and playmaker Vitor Bueno from Athletico Paranaense. He has only played for top teams and has 35 Serie A and Copa Libertadores goals and 15 assists to his name, he is a very classy signing and for big money in JL1 terms. He has been working up to full fitness and has not played much through three starts, but Cerezo scored 5 in those anyway and that offensive production seems sure to rise once he is starting and they look a team to watch once again.

 

Good luck!