The postponement of their home EPL opener has meant that newcomers Luton Town have started life in the top flight away to Brighton and Chelsea. They lost the first 4-1 and in that they gave up "over" 4.0 xGA, 27 attempts, 20 ITB, 12 on target and the Seagulls were denied by eight saves and the woodwork three times. Brighton are a very good team, but those are massive numbers and to call the game a reality check for the Hatters is an understatement and the fears I had for them coming into the campaign remain...........

 

 

I doubt the fact that they have had to stew on that game for 13 days has done them any favours and getting used to the lack of midweek fixtures , no early cup involvement and schedule changes are other factors of life in the top flight, if Town had stayed in the Championship, they would already be four games into their campaign, by the first week of November they will have played 10 games, at the same stage last season 19.

 

Chelsea were average at best last season.......... They finished 12th, their lowest position since 1993-94 and with a  -9 goal difference (usually a good indicator), scoring the 5th fewest goals (38) , exactly half the number scored in 21/22. XP placed them similarly and they were 12th on merit. They were simply not very good! All that after spending, circa £700m in two transfer windows. This summer they had a clear out and brought in some £230m in transfer fees and looked to be a little more reserved in spending, at least trying to build a team with a clear game plan, but things have gone crazy once more and they have surpassed than in spending by another £100m+ and their total outlay since summer last year is now around the £1bn mark! Which is just insane!

 

The Blues opened with a 1-1 draw here at Stamford Bridge against Liverpool, they might have been two down early, but played well after that and probably deserved the win, last weekend they went to the London Stadium and lost 3-1 to West Ham United, with the Hammers playing 30 minutes with 10 men. That's four goals conceded, might have been more and just two goals scored, with one point on board and there are still far more questions than answers.  They have now spent £300m on FOUR defensive midfielders since January! It is the old telegram from the casino joke rewritten, "system going well, please send more money!"

 

There is a huge gulf in class, we could argue about this all day, but if one Luton Town player was good enough to make the Chelsea squad (not starting 11 , or bench), he would doubtless be in it. No one expects them to win today and they shouldn't and this is a far bigger game for the hosts and head coach Mauricio Pochettino, but can we trust them? They have won once in 14 EPL starts (since March) and only four times in 25 outings in 2023, being without a clean sheet in 11 and have averaged exactly one goal per game since the start of last season (40 in 40) and all this after the biggest spending spree in history!

 

Chelsea have scored more than 2 goals just once in 20 month's worth of home starts in the EPL, but anything less than that today has to be viewed as another failure.

 

 

Good luck!