Not sure that he was a sports bettor, but Cervantes knew what he was talking about!
Feb 02, 2023
Coppa Italia: Juventus- Lazio
| 2022/23 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Napoli | 20 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 15 | +33 | 53 | WWWW | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 7 | ||
| 2 | 3 | Inter | 20 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 26 | +14 | 40 | WLWX | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 21 | |
| 3 | Lazio | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 16 | +20 | 38 | XWWX | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 6 | ||
| 4 | 2 | Atalanta | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 23 | +16 | 38 | WXWW | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 10 | |
| 5 | 3 | Milan | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 29 | +8 | 38 | LLXX | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 13 | |
| 6 | 2 | Roma | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 37 | LWWX | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 13 | |
| 7 | Udinese | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 29 | XWLL | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | ||
| 8 | Torino | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 27 | XWLX | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | ||
| 9 | Empoli | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 26 | XWWX | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 14 | ||
| 10 | 1 | Bologna | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 26 | WXWL | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 21 | |
| 11 | 2 | Monza | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 25 | WXWX | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 24 | XLLW | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | ||
| 13 | 3 | Juventus1 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 23 | LXLW | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
Above is the Serie A table as it currently stands. This week the Italian FA issued a 36 page document explaining the full reasons for the 15 point penalty given to Juventus, which the club have already announced they will appeal against. The case centres around inflated player transfer fees, with the belief, and the FA state that there is "confessional value" in official documents signed by Juventus directors, that the club was registering unrealistic figures as plusvalenza (capital gains).
I don't know if that appeal will be successful, but with it in place, Juventus are out of top 6 contention and winning the Coppa Italia offers the only realistic domestic route into European football next season. However, the current 15 point penalty might just be the tip of the iceberg and apparently, the club is facing further sporting and legal sanctions, with the government/ Italian securities regulatory body investigating another matter or matters, including players paid "off the books" during the pandemic and both parties avoiding tax, which, as a publicly traded company, with legal obligations to the stock market, would be classified as fraud.
For my stating the obvious claim of the day, that doesn't sound good at all and whilst Juventus are openly talking in bullish fashion about the appeal, behind closed doors the club and maybe even some players know the truth and we might not even see Juve playing in the top flight next season. This is not unknown, not just in Italian football, but at Juventus and in July 2006, following a match fixing scandal (Calciopoli), they were stripped of their 04/05 and 05/06 titles and relegated to Serie B.
That would leave motivation for games limited at best and they are coming off a 2-0 home defeat to Monza (last Sunday) and a 3-3 draw here in Turin with Atalanta prior to that. Five goals conceded in back to back home games is as many as they have given up in their ten previous starts at Lo Stadium.
Lazio are making their second trip of the season to Juventus Stadium, having lost 3-0 here in the league just before the World Cup break, the visitors had been on top and were controlling the tempo of the game before the home side scored against the run of play, immediately before and after the break. The Biancocelesti were without both Ciro Immobile and Mattia Zaccagni ( a combined 16 goals and 10assists from the duo this season), the former returned at the weekend and saw some game time from the bench and might do similar this evening, Zaccagni is starting regularly once more. The visitors have a stated aim to win the Coppa and have spoken openly about that in build up. Ahead of that heavy November loss in Turin, I touched upon how strong Lazio and all Maurizio Sarri teams are on the road and they had just won the last four away starts by a combined 11-0.
They had served us very well with back to back big wins away to Fiorentina and Atalanta and notes on both featured in the latter ......
I wrote a glowing write up for Lazio ahead of their most recent league road start, a 4-0 win at Fiorentina.........
Fiorentina won easily in Edinburgh on Thursday when we sided with them, but to be honest that was more about opposing the Scottish side Hearts, than being desperate to back La Viola. The hosts are struggling domestically, they have won just once in seven starts, scoring only three goals total and in all competitions, they have failed to score in 6/11. Lazio could move up to T3rd with the win and have played with great freedom on the road under Maurizio Sarri, as almost all his teams do, they have lost 1/11 away starts and incredibly, scored 3+ goals in 8 of their last 15 Serie A road outings, including a 3-0 win here at the Artemio Franchi Stadium in February. The head coach has lost only 1/11 h2h games with Fiorentina and La Viola have not scored in the last four of those. His Fiorentina counterpart Vicenzo Italiano has lost all four meetings with Lazio, the double last year and the same the previous season with his former club. Sarri and his backroom staff revamped this squad in the off season and this group is now very much at ease with his tried and tested fluid and at times electric 4-3-3 ,which can overwhelm the opposition, especially on the road. In transition, it is the blueprint from where that fine Napoli away form we discuss so often originally came from. He has done all this while also tightening things up defensively and Lazio have not conceded in three starts with a 10-0 goal difference and 11-2 for BC's . Away win.
Lazio have now scored 3+ goals in 9 of their last 16 Serie A road outings which is an incredible record in such a competitive league and were massive odds to do so in Florence. They also kept a 4th straight clean sheet, they have played twice subsequently, both draws one in the Europa League ( not concerned with that) and the other, 0-0 at home to Udinese, I can even take positives from that as Udinese have been scoring freely (80 since the start of last season, at the rate of 1.67 pg. But it is back on the road where they interest me, especially in this fixture given their recent scoring exploits as they like the air in Bergamo and have scored 2+ goals in 7/8 visits .
They won that 2-0 and then "on the road" again, albeit in their shared stadium with Roma.
Either side of the break they suffered that loss to Juve and one in Lecce, but are back on track now, winning 2-0 at Sassuolo and 4-0 at home to Milan in their last three starts and,in their last 23 league and cup away games against top flight opponents, they have scored.....
0 goals..... 4 times
1 goal .....6 times
2 goals......4 times
3 goals......5 times
4 goals .......4 times
If we take those on merit and it a lengthy number of games and across a 26 month period, they have scored in 82.6% ,two or more in 56.52%, three + in 39.13%, they equate to odds of 1.21, 1.77 and 2.55, but are priced at a respective 1.50, 3.40 and 9.0 + this evening. They have also won 12 of those (52.17%) and are quoted at 3.70+ ( 27.03%) to do so again. Of course, you can argue a lot of things, that Juventus are better than the average opponent and that the home side might be more interested in the Coppa now than the league and the reverse could be true of Lazio, despite comments to the contrary. But no getting away from the fact that this is a low point for Juve, both as a team and club and who knows what kind of further sanctions individuals might be facing. We can also add in that Lazio have scored 3-2-0-3-1-1-2-0 in the last eight h2h games with Juve played outside of Rome and they were without two key offensive players for the last of those.
This is a very interesting game anyway, certainly in terms of showing us what we might see from Juventus in the coming weeks. But for me the value and it is only ever about that, has to be in the upper end of those goal quotes for the free scoring visitors , they have scored 2+ in 50% of the last four "away" games with Juve and the hosts have conceded two to Monza (inferior to Lazio) and three to Atalanta (similar level) in the last 11 days.
Lazio to score "over" 1.5 goals 3.40 general quote.
Lazio to score "over" 2.5 goals 9.0+ general quote.
I will "officially" put up 1.75 units on the former, but probably play a little something on the bigger quote, ever mindful that in the words of Cervantes, "faint heart never won fair maiden."
Good luck!
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