Monday morning EPL update...........
Apr 03, 2023
Premier League:
There were notes on the Everton- Tottenham game in the Friday newsletter.
Busy day in the EPL yesterday with Chelsea sacking Graham Potter and Leicester City waving goodbye to Brendan Rodgers.
Potter is a good coach, but left stability and a safe home at Brighton where the owner understands football and that time and patience allied to mainly correct decisions bring their own reward, to one where you throw money at any issue and if that doesn't work, you throw some more and if success comes tomorrow, that is too late. Potter has looked lost and has had that blank stare for months that all sportsmen and coaches get when they do not quite understand what is happening around them and he has made some bizarre decisions, James and Cucurella in a back 3 on Saturday comes immediately to mind!
Rodgers got an extra six months at City he did not fully merit and that was solely down to City not wanting to pay his severance package, for whatever reason. My preseason notes on the Foxes are reproduced below and if you took the 17.0 for them to be relegated you are in a strong position this morning with the club sitting in 19th place and trading at a top priced 3.75 currently .............
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 30 | WLLL | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 20 | ||
| 13 | Wolves | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 42 | -19 | 28 | XLLW | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 23 | ||
| 14 | West Ham United | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 27 | WXLW | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | ||
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 50 | -27 | 27 | XLLX | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 32 | ||
| 16 | Bournemouth | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 27 | WLWL | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 38 | ||
| 17 | Leeds United | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 26 | LWXL | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 30 | ||
| 18 | Everton | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 26 | XWXL | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | ||
| 19 | Leicester City | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 25 | LXLL | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 32 | ||
| 20 | Southampton | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 23 | LXLO | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 23 |
They do have one of the easiest remaining schedules, hence the large seeming quote, but they have taken just one point from a possible 21 and no games are easy when in freefall. They host Aston Villa on Tuesday, Bournemouth at the weekend, in what could be a pivotal week, but right now, look inferior to the former and lacking the fight of the latter.
I went to Brighton-Brentford at the weekend and enjoyed the game greatly, saw six goals and I was a little disappointed that having led three times that the Bees did not hold on to all three points, but that would have been a travesty of justice. The Seagulls are a VERY good team, they gave Brentford a bit of a battering and it is not possible that there are four better sides in the EPL, that is not to say that Brighton will finish top 4, but that is the level they are playing at and it is far from impossible that they can make a late push and life uncomfortable for the teams above them. Mitoma (unplayable at times), March, Caicedo and Mac Allister are all elite, Brentford have two high quality full backs who were turned inside out by the first two for most of the 90 minutes and to say I was impressed by Brighton does them scant justice.
Good luck!
Leicester City..............
I am quite good at picking up on managers/head coaches who are bad fits, or not up to the task and, the much maligned (in my notes) Steve Cotterill and my nemesis David Wagner, immediately spring to mind. I am not saying that either of these next two make that profile, but did write in January that I felt the time might have come for two EPL head coaches to move on ..............
Leicester City and Leeds United have underperformed, Crystal Palace overachieved, but I highlighted how little there was between those teams in "upper mid table" and that remains the case. I have seen City live twice, they did not impress on either occasion and were very reliant on a couple of players, especially Youri Tielemans and they looked a little "stale". Head coach Brendan Rodgers has never stayed anywhere longer than three years, and next month will be his third year anniversary at the King Power and I do wonder how long this relationship will last. They have kind of "evolved" but I would argue not in a good way, very few key long passes which used to be a feature ( almost none when Tielemans and Maddison are not on the pitch) less pressing and with far less intensity (last time I looked they were bottom for "sprints"). United looked very average when I saw them and we have been here before with Bielsa teams, he wants a small squad, but has run them into the ground in recent years, pick up a few injuries (United have had a lot) and you are buggered, buggered and exhausted ! The Argentine coach is a genius, but stubborn and this is already the longest he has stayed at any club side through his career.
Bielsa was gone a month later, Rodgers remains, but it strongly feels like he is on borrowed time. He is now significantly past that three year sell by date, is also now 49 yo , approaching one of those milestone birthdays which can often be an issue for anyone, especially sportsmen and has appeared increasingly frustrated and spoke often at the end of last season about needing/wanting to overhaul the squad this summer and, what has happened to date ............nothing, no signings, nada! I have heard that they have to sell before buying, which seems weird.
City finished 8th last season, but were not good in either game I saw them live and xP, depending which site you use, placed them between 15th-18th and suggested they should have scored 11-17 goals fewer and conceded 7-13 more and that last number is scary as they already shipped a top half of the table high 59 goals and only Newcastle United (who looked booked for relegation prior to the Saudi takeover) conceded more outside of the bottom six. A couple of players who have been absolutely key for years are now very long in the tooth, Kasper Schmeichel , Jonny Evans and Jamie Vardy are each either 34 or 35 yo. City collected an additional 0.46 points pg when Evans played last season ( started/missed an even number) and have won just 4/18 without Vardy since the start of 2020 and it is too easy to see the two outfield players getting far less game time going forward.
They are very reliant on a few players, I would name Wesley Fofana, Youri Tielemans and James Maddison (love him or hate him, many are in the second camp), he is pivotal in that 8 role and they are only a couple of injuries, or a transfer (both Tielemans and Maddison are being courted) deal away from a crisis. Fofana is only recently back from a serious injury and the saying in Leicester is that Rodgers forgets about defending if Evans or Fofana are missing !
City were 8th, but fine margins in the EPL, they were only 7 points ahead of Villa in 14th and xP put them just a handful of points above the "expected" bottom three and that trio were indeed all relegated. A shine was put on their season by wins over Southampton, Watford and Norwich in the closing 11 days of the season, but two were already down and the other going through the motions. They were an average -0.54 xGD per game last season (which is awful) and they are rated price wise on a par with teams who posted both real and expected positive numbers and when we add in the other issues, I am not sure in what universe that can be correct!
City have a tough start facing four Big Six teams in their first eight starts (prior to the September international break), opening at home to Brentford (!) and with other games against Villa and Brighton which I see as difficult, but are any games in this league easy ?
They are 16-1 to be relegated, that is not really my reason for writing, but it does feel big, especially given those first eight games.
I just found this in an article Rodgers gave to the local newspaper.......
No transfer war... Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers.
Leicester City’s transfer business is on hold until the club sell players, manager Brendan Rodgers has admitted, but insists he will “not go to war” with the hierarchy over the lack of activity.City are the only Premier League club not to make a signing this summer window, even with Rodgers planning five or six transfer as part of a healthy shake-up. He now says his plans will not be completed as fully as he had hoped.But the manager said he would never criticise the club, and understood the realities of City’s situation as they seek buyers for the players they want to offload in order to give them the financial wiggle room to bring in new recruits. If they cannot do that, Rodgers said they would struggle to compete at the higher end of the table.
“Hopefully we can improve the squad, but my honest opinion is that it’s not going to be the level I would have wanted, that’s just unfortunate."
I have also seen 10-1 for Rodgers to be the first EPL manager to leave and do believe he won't see out the season , but that is not a market I have ever bet in, or given too much consideration to, it is too negative for me. Interesting to see how much business , in or out, is conducted before the window closes at the King Power, but definitely something to keep an eye on and a club to monitor.
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