In late March I noted ......

 

A bet we have done very well with in MLS is with road teams to score twice ( "over" 1.5 goals), this is a relatively high scoring league anyway, even with a few teams bucking that trend and of course, we are usually swerving those and MLS has a less home win heavy bias than it did in the past. There were 55.6% home wins in 2017, 53.96% the following season and 52.21 in 2019, but a very steady 47.26% / 47.93% / 48.94% / 47.46% through the subsequent four seasons and that circa 8% drop off is significant.

 

We are now almost halfway through the new season and home wins are now down to circa 45.5% and goals are 0.44 per game up at this stage compared to 2023, which is a very big increase.

 

Two games appeal this weekend and first up is LA Galaxy- Atlanta United. Galaxy have been the two goal gift that keeps on giving for two seasons now, especially in those West Coast derby games and betting them to score 2+ on the road or give up 2+ at home has paid handsomely.  We opposed them in each of their three starts going into the break and all obliged with Galaxy winning two, but conceding exactly 2 in each, including at home to Colorado Rapids and Portland Timbers.

 

Galaxy are top of the Western Conference and boast a fine 9-3-1 home record, but have conceded 20 goals as host which is more than all bar two teams and that pair are placed 12th and 14th in the 14 team section. That basically tells you all you need to know about how they play, which is pretty much offense first and second at home. LAG also conceded 2+ in all three Leagues cup games played, so are on a run of 6 for 6 at present. Giving up 1.54 goals per game here in LA on average in MLS play means we are almost there and every reason to believe that Atlanta will be up for this. They have not played for 20 days which means the travel out West will be far easier than usual and they can make the journey and conduct training sessions where and when they like. United hit the ground running last season after the break, winning their first two by a combined 6-0, including the first here on the West Coast 2-0, at what was also a high flying Seattle Sounders. They averaged 2.5 goals pg after the 2023 restart, including scoring 2+ in 5 of 7 on the road. They received a major boost going into the break, beating elite MLS team Columbus Crew 2-1 and deservedly so, winning BC's 5-1.

 

2.25 units Atlanta United to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.33 asian line.

 

Good luck!