I have already sent subscribers 11 previews for this weekend and you can read one below, there are still two days, but just two days, left to take advantage of the 100€ savings on six and twelve month subscriptions . LINK.

 

 

 

The top two meet in Yokohama. We have previewed the last four Marinos games, put up five bets and four won at odds of between 2.13-3.25 and the other was a terribly unlucky "push", so fair to say we have a good handle on them right now . That is basically that they are very strong offensively and have been for more than two and a half seasons, but are far more suspect defensively than the goals against column suggests. The preview of their trip to Osaka to play Cerezo is reproduced at the foot of this email and provides background information on the first three of those contests and ahead of their last start I wrote .....

 

Marinos are top of the table with a healthy 5 point lead but know that teams below them will come on strong and there can be no let up from them, as both they and Frontale are well off last season's pace. YFM have scored 20 goals in their last 7 starts (6-1-0), with two+ goals in each and could hardly be in better form results wise, but I touched upon how they were more vulnerable defensively than their goals against column suggests within the Cerezo notes at the foot of this email. However, they have won on their last three visits to Tosu City with a 9-2 goal difference and the hosts have lost their way and their last three starts, all at home, conceding six goals, one to a second tier team and another to the club bottom of J-League 1 at the time and they created very little across the 270+ minutes. Sagan are ranked #15 for xGF (14th at home) and YFM are top 2 in all three xGF categories (overall, home and away) and creating an average of 0.7 xG per game more than their host. Sagan had the stingiest defence in J-L1 through 12 games, conceding just 7 goals, but have shipped 15 in the last eight and their only wins in their last 10 starts came versus FC Tokyo (whom they "always" beat) and a struggling Gamba team who deserved at least a point. Having said all that, it is rare for decent JL1 teams to FTS in three straight home games and given what we know about YFM defensively, we can look for a few goals and BTS.

 

That played out perfectly in another 2-2 draw and Marinos have now conceded 2+ goals in 3/4 starts, it should have been all four and they are starting to concede in line with their defensive stats.

 

Antlers have scored 20 goals on their last ten visits to Yokohama and 21 in the last 10 h2h games as hosts, winning 13 of those match ups (65%) . One or both teams have scored 2+ goals twelve times in the last eight meetings here and another good chance for both to do so and good value in Antlers scoring twice.

 

2.25 units Kashima Antlers to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.69 asian line.

 

Good luck!