The Magnificent Six .............
Sep 08, 2019
Yesterday I wrote "I have just sent today's notes which ran to 4,700 words and including full previews of six games " and posted a preview of the Rapids game (see post below), the six selections were...........
New York City FC to win and both teams to score.....odds 3.0............. result 2-1....... W
Toronto FC -1 ball .......odds 2.51 .........result 5-1 .......... W
Colorado Rapids -0.5 ball 2.12 .......odds 2.12 .......result 2-0 .............W
Internacional -0.5 ball .....odds 2.49........result 1-0 ..........W
Fluminense level ball .......odds 2.31..........result 1-0 .......W
Bianca Andreescu to beat Serena Williams ......odds 3.41 .......result 6-3/7-5 .....W
Odds for all six 312-1 !!
Saturday's full newletter which included a lot of other stats and info is reproduced below in full ................
Saturday September 7th
Next newsletter will be sent on Sunday @ 10.00 UK time.
MLS:
Colorado Rapids- Seattle Sounders
Rapids 14 home games have seen 30 goals total at 2.14 per game before the break a HUGE number.
Colorado have scored 8 in their last two home starts, Seattle's last 6 starts have produced 28 goals and there have been 3+ goals in 6/7 h2h games in Commerce City.
Rapids came into this season with huge hopes for the campaign, but 9 points from their opening 14 starts put paid to those ambitions and head coach Brad Friedel lost his job to be replaced by Conor Casey and the improvement was almost immediate and early in that revival I wrote .............
That came ahead of a 3-1 defeat of FC Cincinnati last week, a game in which Rapids also missed a further four big scoring opportunities, they have now scored in their last nine home starts, at an average of 2.11 per game, with 2+ goals in 7 of those , including 12 in the last five. They are clearly scoring and creating freely here at the rarified atmosphere of Commerce City which is at 1,574m above sea level and stopped giving away the silly goals which were plaguing them early season. Midfielder Jack Price told the club's main supporter blog this week that the biggest difference is one thing: “Getting our first win. It’s given the lads a lot of confidence. Since then we’ve shown we can win games in this league, training’s been good, we’ve worked hard for each other. That’s a key point—everyone’s working well, training well—I think that’s important. You train how you play.”
Interim HC Conor Casey has taken the reigns and made subtle tweaks to the daily regimen allowing the Rapids to get back to basics, according to Price. “There’s more freedom for the lads,” said the Pride of Shropsire. “Mentally, we’ve got less to deal with in terms of training. We’re just going out in training and enjoying it. There’s days where it’s just football and they can enjoy it.”
“It wasn’t anything to do with the previous manager, but when you go on a run like that you start to not enjoy it as much. Getting that win, getting that laughter back in training helps. Conor doesn’t give us too much to think about in terms of tactics and I think that’s helped a few of the lads,” he said. “We just concentrate on what we can affect today. You don’t think about anything else apart from your role and your job on a Saturday and so far, so good.”
Casey echoed those thoughts earlier in the week, saying he just wants the players to focus on their jobs day-to-day. “We’re only talking about processes and what we’re doing each day,” said the former Rapids striker. “I think they listen to me, but more importantly they’re listening to each other, and that’s the part that is the strongest thing.”
Pre season Rapids had big hopes for this season and are at least showing signs of that, even if it is too soon to really call it a turnaround.
They have subsequently taken 21 points from their last 14 starts and that is top 6 form. They are too far off that top 6 to get into the playoffs, but are playing well, are under no pressure and I suspect why Rapids opted to appoint Robin Fraser as permanent head coach early last week in a bit of a surprise appointment given how well Caey had done, giving him a chance to build now for next season. But Fraser started with a 2-0 win away to NYRB last weekend and will be very keen to win on his home debut, he will be without four players on international duty, but that is as nothing compared to Sounders who are without ten due to call ups.........Arreaga (Ecuador),Delem (Martinique),Jones (T&T),Morris (USA),Nouhou (Cameroon U-23),Ocampo-Chavez (USA U-17),C. Roldan (USA),Ruidíaz (Peru),Smith (Australia),Svensson (Sweden). That's five players who started their last league game, six who played and leaves them very short defensively. Home win.
1.75 units Colorado Rapids -0.5 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
Orlando City- LAFC
OC have scored 7 of 13 home second half goals in the final 15 minutes.
LAFC have scored 10 road goals in that same final 15 minutes. They have scored 2+ goals in their last five away starts, 14 total.
New York City FC- New England Patriots
NYCFC have a +2 first half goal difference, which sky rockets to +11 in the second half.
NER have a fine +4 road goal difference in the opening hour of games, but fall away to -12 in the final 30.
City have won 7/10 with both teams scoring in 9 of those.
Both teams have scored in 7 of 10 Revolution starts, including their last four.
H2h wise both teams have scored in 4/5 meetings in Yankee Stadium.
We have done well with City to win and both teams to score this season and notes on a recent home game are reproduced at the foot of this email.
Ahead of last week's trip to Vancouver I updated with ............. Notes on NYCFC below and they followed up that big win at FCC with back to back home victories at Yankee Stadium and sit third in the Eastern Conference a point behind both Atlanta and Philly, with one and two games in hand respectively. They have still to play both and need to take maximum points from other games to ease the pressure for those title deciding clashes. This is a long trip West to beautiful Vancouver, but City have had a free week to make it and prepare and will be facing the only real rival to FCC as worst team in MLS. Whitecaps are coming off a very short week haing travelled to Montreal and back for a Wednesday game and I spoke earlier in the season about their poor form and how they handled (badly) a quick turnaround against quality teams .
They won that 3-1 and now have three straight home games. Given how strong City are after the break and that Revolution tend to fall away late in away games ( see stats above) it is easy to see this playing out similarly and I have to stick with City to win and BTS, but will also be keen on backing City "in play". NYCFC are without three starters from last week including top scorer Heber which is not ideal, but they are likely to get Tajouri- Shradi back which helps and all teams playing this weekend have to handle losses.
1.75 units New York City to win and both teams to score @ 2.90-3.0 general quote.
FC Cincinnati- Toronto FC
FCC have conceded 24 of 28 home goals in the last hour of games.
TFC have scored 10/14 road goals in the last 30 minutes, conceding 16/21 away goals after the break.
FCC last 10 starts have seen both to score in 9 , losing 7 of the last 9.
Both teams have scored in 7 of Toronto's last 8.
FCC played at Dallas last week ........
Last weekend I previewed FCC- Crew and those notes also included a look at NYCFC and all are reproduced below the "Good Luck" sign off, Crew won that 3-1 after leading by three at half time. FCC are sub standard, but they don't lie down or give up and will keep pushing to score, as they have done in their last 7 away starts, losing 5 of those, but it should have been all seven as they were outplayed in the two games in which they avoided defeat. FCD have conceded in 9/14 home starts , including 5 of their eight wins, scoring 10 and conceding four in the two most recent. FCD are a point outside the playoff zone in the Western Conference having played a game more than almost everyone, so need to make the most of this and all remaining home fixtures. Both teams to score and FCD to win by 2+ goals 3-1/4-1.
That did indeed finish 3-1 and now it is TFC's opportunity to pick up the "free points" on offer, as, whilst we know FCC will not give up easily, they are below MLS standard and Toronto's need is great with them sitting just a point off playoff pace and facing a daunting trip to NYCFC up next. Both teams are missing a host of players, but TFC have the greater need and depth of squad and I expect them to win.
2 units Toronto FC -1 ball 2.51 asian line/Sportmarket.
Brazil: Serie A:
Corinthians - Ceara
Corinthians have not conceded a home first half goal , or in any game before the 31st minute.
Ceara have not scored in first 30 minutes on the road, only conceding one in that sequence, but did ship 5 in the final 15 minutes of the opening half.
Vasco da Gama- Bahia
Vasco have not scored at home in the opening 30 minutes ,but won the last four h2h meetings as host.
Goias- Palmeiras
Goias have a +/- zero first half goal difference, +4 in the second half. They are unbeaten in six h2h league games as host, winning five.
Internacional - Sao Paulo
Internacional have a +6 first half goal difference, not conceding in the opening 30 minutes.
Inter are very strong at home 7-2-0 and need the win today sitting in the final Copa Libertadores spot with tough away trips to Flamengo and CAM in their next two starts. The hosts stats give them a good chance of getting a solid foothold in this game and SP arrive with issues on the right flank, missing both RB Daniel Alves and RW Anthony and they have not scored in two starts. Inter are now out of Copa for this season and now able and starting to use their best 11 in domestic games, winning the last two and scoring six goals in the process. Home win.
2 units Internacional -0.5 ball 2.49 asian line/Sportmarket.
Fortaleza- Fluminense
Fortaleza have a +4 first half goal difference, but are -2 after the break.
On Monday I previewed Fluminense's "must win" home game with Avai................
Avai are yet to win, have seven points from 7 draws (9 defeats) and are already 11 points from safety, 5 behind Fluminense who sit in 18th place, also in big trouble. The visitors have to at least look to win, which I am not sure has been the case too often with just 8 goals scored and that should ensure this opens up at some stage. Flu are much the better team IMO and it is not even close, the hosts have had little luck in front of goal, but have still scored 19 time and have a game in hand on almost everyone, two including this, but have to be looking to catch teams who currently have a 10 point advantage over them, so their need is great too and they know that games do not come much easier than this. Flu's last two home starts illustrate what they are capable of, they beat Copa Libertadores contenders Internacional 2-1 and lost 1-0 to struggling CSA, in the first they "won" attempts 22-15, on target 6-4, big chances 3-1, hit woodwork 1-0 , attempts inside box 14-5, passes 640-412 , completions 89%-84%, in the second, for the same categories they were 33-5, 12-3, 3-0, 1-0, 16-3, 686-344 , 91%-73%. They were worthy winners of the first and could not lose the second with those numbers again even if they tried ! Looking at their stats for the 15 games played it is difficult not to see them as midtable level and surely things have to balance out for Flu sometime soon.
Avai have also been suffering from ill discipline recently with a player sent off in three of their last four starts, that means that today captain and best defender centre back Betao is suspended, only game time he has missed this season were the 16 minutes after his dismissal and a home game with Ceara which Avai lost 2-1, the winner is otherwise 0-1-6 on the road. Betao missed just three games last season in their Serie B promotion camapign all were at home and they lost two, with just 7 defeats in the 35 games he played, that loss rate going from 20% to 67% in his absence, even worse than that if we give home "weighting" to those numbers.
Once again Flu bossed the game ......26 attempts, 20 inside the box, 10 on target. 10 saves, 4 big chances missed and it is becoming a bit of a broken record, but they are clearly better than results indicate and their need is great and they have scored most of their goals late with 18 of 19 goals scored after the 31st minute, which also mirrors when Fortaleza fade (see stats) and we have to give the visitors another chance at these odds.
1.75 units Fluminense level ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket.
WTA: US Open tennis:
Serena Williams- Bianca Andreescu
Serena was a very easy winner over Elina Svitolina in the semi finals at least after she got to 4-1 in the first set and grew in confidence and it has to be said, played very well from that point. However, it could easily have been 1-4 at the time, with Svitolina missing a host of game points and you have to take those against Williams. The Ukranian was also FAR too cautious, standing well behind the baseline to receive even second serves and giving Serena too much time to hit shots and position herself. Ahead of that I wrote ....... My bigger concern with Williams the younger is how much she wants another slam, sometimes you can crave something too much and it puts huge pressure on yourself and Serena is already walking a tightrope in that regard, we spoke about this ahead of slam finals in NY and Wimbledon last year, when to be brutal, she was a no show, similarly at Wimbledon this year.
I am not sure that didn't happen as Serena was shaky early, but Svitolina did not give herself enough chances to take advantage and in truth, was not brave enough, Andreescu is too good and too young , with the fearlessness that brings not to at least have a go and how the early stages of their Toronto final played out last month, with Serena retiring at 1-3 will have given her some additional self belief she can win this, although I doubt that belief is something she lacks. Srena has lost all her three recent slam finals and easily and if Andreescu can hang on in there early, I feel she is great value today and I wonder when again we will get odds of 3.0 + about such a big talent on this surface (never ?).
1.75 units Bianca Andreescu to win 3.41 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
MLS: New York City FC-Sporting KC (written July 26th)
I was keen on SKC last weekend when they hosted FC Dallas, the visitors are poor on the road and Sporting's numbers were good and they looked they they might have turned a corner ...............
Night follows day, day follows night, the sun rises in the East and sets in the West and Sporting KC make the post season !
Since Peter Vermes took charge a decade ago SKC have ALWAYS been a contender and are looking for a 9th straight playoff season, they won the MLS Cup in 2013 and were the "Best in the West " last season. However, two games back they were last in the Western Conference, with just 4 wins from 18 starts and 7 points off post season pace. Back to back wins, at home to a decent Chicago Fire (1-0) and away to struggling Whitecaps (3-0........see next preview) have steadied the ship and taken them off the foot of the table and to within four points of top 6. I have been waiting for them to turn a corner as their numbers have been good. They are 3rd best team offensively , second best defensively in the West and in terms of expected goal difference and X points, second in both.
FCD are 7th on the same number of points as the team in 6th, so a big game for Sporting, with big playoff ramifications and one they will be busting a gut to win. Dallas are not a great road team, even by MLS standards, especially given the success they have achieved, they have lost 54/112 road starts , including 7/10 this season. The visitors have just sold DP Carlos Gruezo to Augsburg, he has played almost 100 MLS games in his three and a bit seasons in Dallas, he has missed 21 (just 4 wins) , but it is on the road his contribution will be hardest felt, in his absence, that poor away form switches to dire and they are 0-2-9 with a 5-23 goal difference. SKC have lost just 1/10 h2h games as host, scoring 2.6 goals pg, sole win here in that sequence came last season in a 3-2 win, thanks mainly to a hat-trick from Micheal Barrios, he has not scored since March and with him out of form and goals in short supply for FCD ( 15 in 13 ...........in a very high scoring league ), plus Gruezo now gone, it has to be SKC.
All the advantages with SKC and they had a lot of possession and attempts on goal, but it was all a bit toothless, only one on target and they ran out of ideas after falling behind on a very hot and humid day in KC and lost 2-0. Now they travel East to play NYCFC who got back to winning ways themselves with a road win at fast improving Colorado Rapids last week, that game turned in City's favour after the hosts were reduced to ten men, but it is still a noteworthy win and the home team will want to bounce back after losing their last start in the Big Apple, a 1-0 defeat to Portland Timbers. That is rare, over the last three seasons they are 35-14-6 at Yankee stadium and I have spoken often about the unique dimensions of this baseball field giving them an advantage and the small pitch should not help the possession base game of SKC . The visitors are without top scorer Felipe Gutierrez who is suspended, he is ever present this year, but did miss an away game in Panana in the CL ( lost 2-1) and played just 30 minutes in a 1-1 draw at Cincinnati in MLS play, so they can still score in his absence. Roger Espinoza will probably step in, but the veteran has played just 25 minutes since April and is just returning from injury and 45 minutes is the best they can hope for from him.
Across those 35 home wins already discussed, City have conceded in 20, so "true" odds for the home win are 63.64% (odds 1.57) and to win with a clean sheet 27.27 % (3.67) and with both teams scoring 36.36 % (2.75). But we also know that within those numbers that NYCFC are a little worse defensively and rode their luck in home games last season, something we discussed many times and whilst that would have not stopped them winning, there are more games in which they should have conceded. This season they look the best team in MLS defensively and have allowed the fewest attempts on target, but again they should have conceded an extra 7 goals, having sad that, it still leaves them #1 ranked for XG against. So, value has to be ...........
1.75 units New York City to win and both teams score @ 3.0-3.10 general quote.
NYCFC have a +8 home goal difference, but it is all after the break. they are +/- zero in the first half (when they have conceded 6), but a fine 10-2 (scored-conceded) in the second 45 minutes. The only team to score a second half goal here since March were trailing by three at the time (the other was the best team in MLS at present in LAFC).
MLS: FC Cincinnati- Columbus Crew
This is pretty much a derby with 100 minutes of highway driving between the two cities, just over an hour if my wife is behind the wheel !
Last weekend I previewed Columbus Crew- Toronto FC/ FC Cincinatti- New York City FC and those notes included a look at Crew-FCC which took place two weeks back....................
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I looked at two of these teams last weekend when Crew hosted FCC.............
I have spoken about some big issues with both teams this season and we have done fine opposing both, ahead of FCC's home game with a DC United team in a slump last month I wrote ..............
I spoke about FCC's own woes ahead of a recent trip to Minnesota and they were hammered there 7-1, but they have taken six points, scoring five goals in two subsequent starts, that is as many points as they have taken from their previous 15 starts and goals scored in six outings. The second of those was an away win at Chicago Fire, where they made some big changes and played very defensively, that is not their usual style, it worked, so I do not doubt we will see it again on the road, but we do not need to overly concern ourselves with that for today. In the home win (3-2 over Dynamo) Allan Cruz was the star and headline maker, featuring in all three goals and his pressing caused Houston huge issues in the first half, with the youngster working well with Frankie Amaya and Leonardo Bertone in the middle, that was the first time all season Cruz has played in his natural position and it gave hope for the future and something/someone that FCC can build around. However, once Amaya left the field with an injury, it forced FCC into a change and it was a different story, with Dynamo then having 6 of their 7 attempts on target. At that stage we once again saw the lack of pace in the home team, especially at the back and they have conceded 27 goals in 8 starts, 2+ in seven and their opponent missing two penalties in the game where they only conceded once ! Cruz needs help, at present it feels like that has to come from Amaya and he is a big doubt for tonight and anyway, I don't think that even with that help, that Cruz can run himself into the ground for 90 minutes and that vulnerability at the back remains.
They have lost all four subsequent games (conceding 10 goals), including at home to Whitecaps last time out, their only rival as "worst team in MLS" and all that makes pretty poor reading. As bad a run as Crew had been on, which has been well documented in these notes, they look to have turned a corner and are unbeaten in four, which includes draws at Fire, Earthquakes (very impressed by those two results) and a win at NYRB, picking up 8 points and scoring the same number of goals. Leonardo Bertone ( see above) is suspended for the visitors. 3-1.
I backed Crew and goals, it finished 2-2 so no damage done, but hugely frustrating as Columbus had more than twice the number of attempts inside the box, missed several big chances and hit the woodwork twice, but clearly they have not resolved those dedensive issues and it is easy to see their game with Toronto who have scored 39 goals (5th highest in the East), conceded 41 (4th most), developing into another shootout, these teams shared six goals here last season and a repeat, or similar, is certainly not out of the question.
FCC are the worst team in MLS, any doubts about that were removed in their last home game a 2-1 loss to Vancouver Whitecaps who were /are their only rival for that "honour". FCC will claim they were unlucky there and it is true and they might also take heart from that point in Columbus, but we have already discussed that and at the end of the day, the new MLS fanchise team have lost 17 starts (3 more than any one else) and conceded 57 goals (10 more than next worse) at the rate of 2.28 per game and needing to score three to win on average makes victories hard to come by. Today they host NYCFC who have been a bit up and down recently, but are amongst the MLS elite and ahead of their last home start, I wrote ...........
I see this very similar to NYCFC's last home game which was played at the end of last month and my notes for that are reproduced under the "good luck" sign off.
That finished 3-1 which was ideal, SKC ended the game with 10 men, but City were already two up at the time of the dismissal, however, the first goal took 42 minutes to arrive and the notes below in blue type are definitely worth rereading and highlight when the hosts tend to get their business done and doubtless they will again provide good value in running. Houston are probably better than the league table suggests, but are 2-0-8 on the road and arrive with striker Alberth Elis suspended, he has 7 goals and 7 assists in 17 apperances and Dynamo have lost 7/8 starts on the road that he has sat out in the last two seasons, but they did score in five, including three in the most recent and they have also scored on their last two trips to Yankee Stadium. City should be very focused on the points with back to back road games up next , including a daunting looking trip on quick turnaround to Atlanta in three day's time.
City in play is good, but we have doone ok with them plus BTS here in NY so let's stick with that.
That worked out perfectly with City coming from behind to win 3-2. They have played once subsequently losing 2-1 at Atlanta last weekend, but United are the strongest host in the East and a couple of levels above FCC. Anyway, that defeat will focus NYCFC who are in 4th place in the Easter Conference, 7 points off the top, but with 2-3 games in hand on all and with 3 of their next four starts aganst possible the three worst teams in the league, so a massive opportunity to close in on that #1 spot. They are averaging 1.1 points per game more than FCC in the second half of matches and should be able to take a firm grip on this at some stage, later, if not sooner.
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That worked out fine with Crew drawing 2-2 again and FCC losing 4-1. Columbus played in midweek making the relatively short (in MLS terms) trip East to New York to face City, they also lost, but only 1-0 and gave a decent account of themselves in the second half creating some good chances, but that was pretty much down to NY who look as good as at anytime this season in the opening 45 minutes and would probably have led most games 2/3-0 at that stage, but were poor after, completely losing their way and stopped doing what was working, it was all a little odd. Anyway, I guess this week was always about today for Crew in terms of where the win was most likely and if they play as well as they did in the recent h2h meeting they will coast this and will get a little more space tonight and not face the same kind of hard press they did at Yankee Stadium in the first half. Away win.
2 units Columbus Crew -0.25 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.