clubgowi providing the thinking man's (or woman's) betting previews...........
France: Ligue 2: Le Havre- Sochaux
The goals have dried up for Le Havre, just two in their last five starts after scoring 14 in their first four outings of the season. I thought that might have changed at Brest on Friday, along with the return of Jean Phillipe Mateta who had not played in a month. HAC were unbeaten with him in the team and Brest actually scored the only goal of the game in the 90th minute after he had left the pitch. I spoke in early season about the qualities of Le Havre ahead of a trip to Tours and so they bear repeating as they also provide info for the Nimes game ......
I only went with one game last week (Tours-Le Havre) to get the Ligue 2 campaign rolling and I was pleased with it, not because Le Havre won 3-0 , that was the bonus, but because the content was really on the ball , I will reproduce that in full as I am covering both teams today and have highlighted some of what I feel are the more key lines of comment ..........
Tours had Denis Bouanga on a year long loan last season and he was a revelation, scoring 16 goals and adding six assists from midfield, he scored in 8 of their 10 wins, had an assist in another and is going to be very hard to replace, after returning to his parent club and being heavily touted for a big(ish) money move.
The hosts have made a habit of starting recent campaigns slowly and won just 1/11 through the opening three months last season, 3/14 in 15-16 and 3/15 in 14-15.
Today they will also be without last season's second top scorer Cheick Diarra and, of the six forwards named today, four are inexperienced and/or not really goalscorers and have four goals between them at this level, the two others have good scoring potential for L2, but one of those only signed on Tuesday and the other has had issues and is an out and out winger anyway. It just feels that yet again, Tours will need time.
Le Havre have been amongst the promotion favourites for the past few years, but tended to also start slow themselves, before finishing strongly , they have placed 8-4-7 in the last three seasons, missing promotion by one goal in 2015-16. Last season felt like it might have been the one, as they finally got that solid start winning their opening two games and being top three at the end of October, but they lost their head coach which was disruptive and as a result,their way. They did win their last two starts by a combined 8-1, which includes a 4-0 win here in Tours on their last away outing, that was only 11 weeks ago and will give them recent and positive memories of the game when they step off the team bus this evening. They sold left back Ferlan Mendy to Lyon for a massive fee and got 20 yo striker Jean-Philippe Mateta from the same club on a season long loan, he is very well thought of and the type who could take Ligue 2 by storm.
I found this interview with his agent from earlier this year, I think it is interesting as it gives you an insight into his young career and how teams like Lyon can perhaps take a longer term approach than their Premier League counterparts ...........
"Despite the short playing time he had with the first team, he is a player who has made a lot of progress. I had the opportunity to see all the matches he made with the reserve and some practice with the pros, and he is a player who has really evolved. On that side, we are very happy, because that was the program we had planned. We know that we signed a long contract (five years), and that the aim was to prepare him at the highest level. For a player coming from National, there are stages to cross. He is in a first stage to continue training him, to teach him the very high level, to allow him to progress physically, to have him train with very great players like Lacazette, Fekir, Valbuena, or Nkoulou who have a great experience. He learns from day to day, we are in this first part of the project. "
"It must not be forgotten that he had only one year of training in Chateauroux before coming to the OL. It is a player who is not yet "finished", even if I think he would play in other clubs of Ligue 1 because he really has qualities of striker. He has not yet been able to show that he could score goals and was still more ready than that. There was a discrepancy between the expectations of the general public, namely a real lining in Lacazette, and the programming made for the player. " It is a project on the long Term, and President Aulas makes thoughtful investments. If he decides to take Mateta for € 5 million, it is because he knows that the potential is very important. If it takes a year or two before it explodes, it's not a problem.2
"We talk quite regularly about his evolution with the various coaches or Florian Maurice (recruitment manager). They see him evolving, even if he still lacks a few goals in CFA (he scored a goal for the moment) while he has found quite a few times the posts on the last matches. But in the content, there is a real evolution, his matches are good, his buddies of the reserve and the pro team know him better and better. There is a real evolution, when there are specific training strikers we see that he progressed right foot and left foot. It's going well, it just takes a little bit of time to see it at the OL and, why not, by the end of the season whether it's for a full game or half an hour of play. "
HAC have also brought in a number of other talented players and have a good record with "raw" or players who have not quite fulfilled their potential elsewhere and a famed youth set up, I especially like the signing of defensive midfielder Amos Youga from Gazelec, who lost 7/15 when he was absent last season, "just" 6/23 when he played. Early last season I spoke about Zinedine Ferhat............... His absence will have got the attention of Le Havre new signing Algerian winger Zinedine Ferhat, who could go down the same route as HAC's last "name" Algerian signing Rihad Mahrez, Ferhat has every trick in the book and then some and there will be plenty of entertainment in watching him this season.
He took time to gel, had one assist from first first 18 appearances, but gradually got up to speed and had three goals and six assists from the end of January and we can expect plenty from him this season, now that he is settled. He scored the opener in that 4-0 win here and then laid on the second and will surely be looking forward to today. We can also expect to see far far more from striker Ebenezer Assifuah, who was prolific for the Ghana U20 team (top scorer at the U20 World Cup in Turkey), he played very little after his arrival last January (confidence needed rebuilding), just 87 minutes until the last two games, but he scored in both of those and we can expect far bigger things from the still only 24yo (''I decided to move because I want to play every week, Le Havre is a big club and their vision is big and I love that mentally.'') . Le Havre will miss Mendy of course, but look more solid defensively elsewhere, especially in the central spine and have two potentially free scoring strikers and a magician loading the gun, definitely a team to watch this season and lots to learn from their opening 3-4 games.
After that I updated with ...........
So much good stuff in one preview, Assifuah scored after nine minutes, Ferhat had "three" assists (officially two, but I just do not understand why he was not given one for the third !) and they also had a "good" goal disallowed.Tours were largely tootless with just two attempts on target in the 90 minutes, as opposed to nine for HAC. All in all, a very pleasing start to what might well be a thrilling campaign for Le Havre, but we have been here before with them and what they now need to do, is build on that, they struggled at home last season, but were 5-2-1 here from February onwards and will be looking to continue that form and this is a very important game for them.
I love the match videos on their website, they are always edited to give you some background "fillers", this is something we have spoken of before with HAC, the players looked incredibly relaxed arriving at Tours and did some intense warm up routines , some of which I had not seen before. Team spirit was great and all goals, including one deep in injury time, were celebrated en masse and that is always a good sign and not as common as you might think. This is a team/squad absolutely packed full of character / characters and confidence, look at this video from 04:50 onwards to get some idea. Everyone gets to see match highlights, you can learn more sometimes from what is going on around the game and that is why it is important to watch live events where possible. Anyway, Assifuah looks sharp, Ferhat might be the key playmaker in the division, Mateta is HUGE and will be a real handful, Youga a midfield boss and they were not the only players to impress !
They were on fire for the opening month, less so since, but Assifuah did hit the woodwork at Brest, they are probably better with Matata in the squad and we know 100% that they pose far more offensive threat than they have shown in recent starts.
Sochaux are (traditionally) known for their miserly ways, but have conceded 17 goals in eight league and cup games, scoring 13, it took until January 20th before the conceded their 17th goal last season. In 2016-17 they gave up 0.8 goals through their opening 20 starts, 1.39 through the next 18 and that trend has not only continued , but increased, they have conceded 2 or more in 5 of 6 (including three + in three) and there should be goals in this for HAC if they come even close to that early season potential.
The last two h2h meetings here have ended in 2-1 home wins and would not be surprised to see this play out along similar lines, but the hosts also have an advantage having played Friday, Sochaux were at home to Reims on Saturday afternoon (lost 4-2) and that means an extra training schedule for HAC, the visitors are also without Adolphe Teikeu, Florian Tardieu, Florian Martin and Yakou Meïté, all of whom are suspended ! That leaves them hugely weakened in the defensive spine and on the left flank (Ferhat could run riot on that side of the pitch !) and missing the scorers of 9 of their 12 league goals, Martin, with six, is the only player in the squad with more than a single one to his name. Without central defender Teikeu, Sochaux lost 11/21 last season, just 3/17 when he played, this capaign they have conceded eight in 252 minutes without him with two of those three games having been played on home soil ! Possibly still goals, but best value IMO with ...................
1.75 units Le Havre -1 ball 2.53 asian line/Sportmarket.
Le Havre: Thuram, Sissoko,Moukoudi, Keita, Traoré, Coulibaly, Bese, Bain,Bonnet, Youga, Ferhat, Fontaine, Lekhal, Guitane,Assifuah, Mateta, Julan, Gory.
Sochaux: Maxence Prévot, Lawrence Ati Zigi, Patrick Kapp, Jean Ruiz, Mickaël Alphonse, Florent Ogier, Zakarya Bergdich, Pierre Gibaud, Jason Pendant, Jeando Fuchs, Sofiane Daham, Moussa Sao, Mart Ristl, Yoann Touzghar, Aldo Kalulu, Faneva Andriatsima, Thomas Robinet, Axel Bakayoko ,Bryan Lasme.
Good Luck
