Perhaps not the most interesting round of Ligue 2 fixtures, but I feel there is good value on
three games. This round to start the New Year usually produces goals and since the Christmas break was shortened, 83% of games played "today" have produced two or more goals, 61% have gone "over" and 35% had at least four goals. Which is a big increase on this season's average of 64%, 39% and 26% respectively.
We have spoken about Le Havre a lot this season and my notes ahead of their last road game went a lot like this ...........
Most of you know that I am quite keen on this Le Havre group and ahead of a recent road win at Laval I wrote .........
Le Havre are starting to build some momentum and we look to have decided to side with them at exactly the right time, backing them in each of their last three wins, victories which have taken them up to 4th in Ligue 2 and with eyes firmly on a promotion spot. Notes from last week's win at Tours are reproduced at the foot of this email, in those I spoke about how I had been impressed by their preparation and the togetherness in the squad and on the club website yesterday, Cedric Gambon outlined how good the mood at the club was, even when results were not forthcoming saying that "the laughter never stopped" and adding that confidence was currently sky high. They will be missing Ghislain Gimbert upfront today, but will get central defender and club captain Steven Fortes back from suspension.
The visitors have a decent record in this fixture and have not lost in four visits and have scored in the last six, two or more goals in four. The hosts have started to get back into that routine of drawing games 21 of 28 last season ended all square, as have their last four and this is a team who need to gamble and go for results a little more, but as soon as they open up at present, they concede and they look happier on the road in any case, when they can sit back and play on the break. They have already lost three home starts and conceded nine goals here and it is hard to see them keeping HAC scoreless this evening. Obviously, I have no desire to ditch Le Havre, they are now in the position they have been targeting for two seasons and I am expecting a big promotion push.
The international break followed that game, during which HAC decided to change coach, the timing of which probably seemed very odd to outsiders, but I spoke about the reasoning behind the decision ahead of a home game with Brest ........
Since the last win, former US head coach Bob Bradley has taken charge of the club, this has been in the offering for a while, with US businessman Vincent Volpe buying a major shareholding in the club over the summer. Timing was a little odd, given the upturn in results, but the players knew this was coming, Bradley has had two weeks at the club and he will be desperate to win on his home debut. Ghislain Gimbert (see above) returns today, but there is a doubt over goalkeeper Fabien Farnolle (see preview below), he is a very big presence and personality and I would prefer that he played, but likely replacement Stephan Milosavljevic has already made three starts ( two wins) this season so would not be coming in "cold".
They dominated that , but had to settle for a point and then despite taking an early lead at promotion rival Nancy, lost 3-1 and the early reign of Bradley was not off to the best start, however, they managed to edge past Evian at home last time out by the odd goal in five, a match is which they had to take the lead three times, but the debut win and points for the new coach were huge. With only two teams promoted this season and Le Havre now six adrift of Dijon and Nancy who look strong, any team with hopes of breaking into the "party" cannot afford to drop too many points and certainly not to bottom of the league opposition and even if we gave Nimes their eight point deduction back, they would still only be two off the foot of the table and this is a match that the visitors have to look to win.
However, they have had to make the trip without striker Mathieu Duhamel and defensive midfielder Jean-Pascal Fontaine, since Duhamel joined, HAC are 6-3-2 when he plays 20 minutes plus, 0-0-3 when he does not, Fontaine has missed 12 matches in the last two years, just two wins and only a single clean sheet, conceding at the rate of 1.5 goals per game, giving up two or more in 50%. Therefore, Le Havre are obviously more vulnerable , especially defensively in their absence, they still have a proven goalscorer in Ghislain Gimbert and one in form, as he notched two against Evian last time out. Nimes really need the win and will have to gamble, Le Havre are probably going to need to score twice to win this, I feel "over" offers the best value and a 3-2 win either way, or even a repeat of last season's 3-3 draw in this fixture would not surprise.
That ended 2-2 which suited our purposes and Le Havre followed up with a home win over Auxerre and those four points have taken them back firmly into promotion contention, placed in 4th, albeit six points behind the top two. However, with only two promtion spots on offer this season, they are going to have to gamble and look to turn one point into three, even if occasionally it means losing out...........faint heart never won fair lady, or promotion when there are only two places up for grabs!
They have all their offensive weapons in the squad tonight with the return of Matthieu Duhamel and will perhaps be tighter defensively as Jean-Pascal Fontaine will also start (see both above), BUT goalkeeper Fabien Farnolle (pictured) is absent, I have already spoken about his "presence" and again in the Tours notes at the foot of this email and he will be a big loss both on and off the pitch. Replacement Stephan Milosavljevic has made four starts this season, with the two road games producing seven goals, four conceded, HAC have allowed just 9 in 9 when Farnolle plays.
Ajaccio have hauled themselves out of the drop zone and have done so with more adventurous play, their last eight starts have all produced at least two goals , they ended last year with a 3-0 away loss to Sochaux, a team who had only scored 11 goals in 18 starts previously and it was a terrible defensive showing from Ajaccio, with players just allowed to run into the box unchallenged on numerous occasions. The home side have spoken this week about knowing their fate will be decided on home soil and pledge to be 100% going for the win this evening.
To be honest, I would be very keen on Le Havre if Farnolle was playing, but have to admit that his absence is a concern, given that and the fact that the hosts have scored six in their lat three home starts and four of the last five h2h meetings on the island have gone "over", I feel there is better value with ............
1.75 units "over" 2 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
AC Ajaccio : Abergel, Babiloni, Cavalli, Cissé, Diabaté, Diallo, Frikeche, Gonçalves, Madri, Mandanda, Marchetti, Nouri, Panyukov, Sollacaro, Toudic, Vidémont.
Le Havre: Milosavljevic, Bois - Chebake, Fortes, Mendy, Bain, Cambon - Fontaine, M'Bami, Manzala, Bonnet, Louiserre - Mendes, Duhamel, Gimbert, Mousset.
Le Havre have posted more (5) first half road wins than any other L2 team and their away starts have averaged a second highest 1.3 per game goals before the break. Ajaccio have scored 67% of home and 69% of all goals in the first half and the FH over goal line has to also make plenty of appeal.
Good Luck.
