League 2 : Luton Town- Carlisle United
Ahead of Luton's last home game, a visit from Barnet I wrote ........
Town have posted back to back road wins over Dagenham and Crawley Town and notes from both were included in last week's preview which is reproduced in full below. Now John Still's men will be looking to follow up in front of their own supporters and three points today would really be a momentum builder for them and take them back into playoff contention, although that will be their minimum ambition. Barnet have regrouped after a slow start to life back in the Football League and are unbeaten in five starts in all competitions, winning four, they remain without first choice keeper Graham Stack and central defender Bira Dembele, they have lost both road games the left footed Frenchman has missed, maybe we should not read too much into that as the Bees are 1-1-6 away from home in any case, but that sole win did come last time out at highflying Oxford United and the uncompromising Dembele was a key figure there. He should have been dismissed for a reckless first half challenge and we might then have seen a different result, all the Barnet goals in that game came in a wild five minute spell around the 30 minute mark and apart from that period, United were much the better team. Dembele plays on the right side of defence alongside very inexperienced right back Josh Clarke who is on loan from Brentford. Obviously I know Josh quite well, he is talented, but still learning his craft and can get caught out of position in his eagerness to push forward and the absence of the vastly more experienced centre back is a concern and an area that Town can exploit. The Hatters have never lost in five h2h meetings with their near neighbour and can post a fifth win in that sequence today.
They won that 2-0 and to be honest, the margin of victory did not do them justice and they should have added a third or fourth goal, still, that was a hat-trick of wins for them (and us) and it was tempting to back them for the short trip to Steveage at the weekend where they were supported by 2,000 travelling fans. Luckily I avoided the temptation, as the match ended 0-0, which meant a third league clean sheet in a row and again they were a little wasteful in front of goal, following a very poor first half from both teams Town stepped up after the break, dominated play and were twice denied by the woodwork, including once when already down to ten men after the late dismissal of Paul Benson. They are creating chances and with the treatment room emptying fast, have options and competition for places, boss John Still ( pictured and see below) opted to make four changes for the Barnet game and stuck with that 11 for the weekend, which meant that there were a host of regulars keen to get back into the picture and at least one will get a chance this evening, with Jack Marriott and Craig Mackail-Smith jostling to replace the suspended Benson . Still has options to freshen up elsewhere if he chooses and the quick turnaround should always favour the stronger squad with greater depth and that is Town.
United have regrouped after three straight relegation campaigns and are themselves pushing to get into the playoff picture, but they lack the quality of the Hatters and have had a very tough/physically demanding run of games this last month, with some of their longest trips of the season against League 2's better sides and playing Portsmouth and Town back to back inside four days is a big ask and even tougher when you factor in the ten hour round trip by bus for a midweek fixture. U's were very fortunate to draw that match with Pompey, forcing an equaliser deep , deep in injury time after spending almost the entire game on the back foot chasing the ball and the 2-2 scoreline was extremely flattering, Carlisle scoring their opener with their only shot at goal in the first half and Portsmouth missed any number of chances and were denied a clear penalty. Tiredness will play a part tonight and I expect Town to make more of their chances this time and United to ride their luck a little less, home win.
1.5 units Luton Town -0.75 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
FA Cup: Crawley Town- Luton Town (written November 7th)
Luton Town did us a favour last weekend with a 2-0 win at Dagenham, my preview ahead of that game went an awful lot like this .....
Town are a very big club in League 2 terms and simply have to be, at the very least, challenging for promotion, a run of four games without a win ( five in all competitions) has left them down in 15th place and whilst that is "only" six points adrift of the play off spots, this feels very much like draw a line in the sand time and a match the Hatters have to find a way to win.
In comparison, Daggers are tiny, operate on small crowds and a similar sized budget and the fact that they have been a Football League club for nine years and even enjoyed one single season in League 1 is almost solely down to one man and that is Luton boss John Still, who vitually single handedly overhauled the club from top to bottom, saved them from relegation out of the Conference, took them into the FL and then even L1 and did so on a playing budget most managers would have looked at and thought it was the expenses for the ball boys and tea ladies ! Daggers have always stayed within budget, which meant even by Conference standards it is small and they have to sell to even stick to that and what Still did at the club was simply amazing. He knows everyone at Dagenham and I am talking about everyone, including probably half the supporters by name, actually Still knows almost everyove in football, but his heart, or at least a large part of it remains in this corner of East London and speaking about returning this week, it has been almost too painful and he said he just wants to go, play and leave as soon as possible. I guess it is like seeing an old girlfriend you still have feelings for .
It is not his first return, Town took four points from the h2h meetings last year, drawing 0-0 here, where they played an hour with ten men following a hotly disputed sending off and were later denied what looked a stonewall penalty, that and Town's need for all three points will ensure that there is not too much sympathy, at least on the pitch and the visiting supporters who are going to form at least 50% (1,200 advance tickets sold) of the crowd, can make the trip home happy. Team news is not overly important, the Town squad is on another level, but it is worth noting that Craig Mackail-Smith has busted a gut to get fit for this, he was more or less the first signing that Still made at Dagenham, joining from what was basically 8th tier football (!), he went on to make two big money moves and a good living from football and turned down the offer of League 1 football from at least two clubs to play for his former boss once more. CMS is desperate to play one more time at tiny Victoria Road.
Town have been getting into good positions, but not seeing out games well, they have led in two of the last three and were level entering injury time in the other and yet only took one point from those games and that has to stop, a free midweek and the extra day to prepare solely for this will have helped after six games inside 21 days previously and I feel we will see a very focused performance from the visitors today.
That result was much needed and whilst the league will be priority for the Hatters, they will surely be looking to build some momentum and can freshen up the starting eleven without weakening it today with Paul Benson back from injury and needing game time and Ryan Hall available following suspension. We can expect John Still to name a side to win this and Town will want revenge for a 2-1 league loss here just three weeks ago. That was one of those games ( see above) where Luton led and basically threw the points away. I have just read Still's post match notes from that game and he said that when leading 1-0 at the break , he said to his coaching staff that they only way we can not collect three points here is by making silly mistakes and gifting Crawley goals and that is exactly what they did ! If the visitors are as dominant again in the opening period, I doubt they will be so free and easy and right now it is all about focus for the away team.
Hosts have receovered after a poor start to their season and all credit to boss Mark Yates who has had a terrbly difficult job to do with funds in short supply, he has had to bring in a lot of players with a very limited budget and try to build a team, this was something we spoke about in pre and early season. Anyway he has a competitive starting eleven now, but options outside of that are limited and having already had one loanee recalled, Birmingham City have refused to allow promising left back Mitch Hancox to play today, not wanting him cup tied. Since Hancox arrived , Town have won 4/6, without him 2/10 , they are likely to have to play someone out of position on that defensive flank and will also lose quite a bit of offensive threat too, with Hancox equally effective as a winger. Away win.
1.5 units Luton Town -0.25 ball 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
