This Friday sees the start of the 2025 J-League 1 season with the Osaka derby, this will be the last J-L campaign played in a whole calendar year. From the next season (2026-27) the league will adopt the European calendar and run from September to May.

 

The more eagle eyed amongst you will have spotted that this leaves a nine month gap without league football! 

 

There will, apparently, be a special tournament held during the first half of 2026 to fill the void, but I have no idea what that will be and doubt it will be of much interest.

 

Japanese football has featured in clubgowi notes for more than a decade, but I/we do not need another "winter" league and this therefore, will probably be the final J-L1 season I will cover and that feels a bit sad.

 

Nil desperandum ! It need not overly worry us for now and we can have a usual look at who over and under achieved in 2024 and that does have a habit of evening out, especially in Japanese football.

 

 

We need to touch upon eight teams in these notes and they are, in order of finishing position......

 

Machida Zelvia: the promoted side were the surprise package in 2024, but 59.1% of their points came in the first half of the season when opponents had less knowledge/data on them and xP suggests they should have collected 7 points fewer and it will be difficult for them to repeat those heroics. No goalscorer reached double digits and only the three relegated teams won fewer points from losing positions.

 

Gamba Osaka: collected eight points fewer in the second half of the season and expected numbers highlight them as the biggest overachieving team in the top flight. XP says they should have collected 14 points fewer, placing them 11th and xGD sees them as 12 goals worse off. They scored the fewest goals amongst the top 9 and have lost their two star young offensive players and three other key players are aged 32-37 and Gamba could be in for a long season.

 

Kashima Antlers: collected 9 points fewer in the second half of the campaign and xP sees them as those same 9 points inferior and a big 15 goals worse off for xGD. However, they were not happy with that 5th placed finish either and replaced their head coach with the eye-catching appointment of Toru Oniki after he spent eight seasons with Kawasaki Frontale, Through which they won four league titles, three League and Super Cups and two Emperor's Cups and were the dominant force in Japanese football and achieved that playing relentless offensive football. Antlers have also been big movers and shakers in the transfer market this off season and will pose a HUGE goal threat.

 

Cerezo Osaka: were 10th, xP has them a shade higher, two places and three points, but more noteworthy is the fact that xGF gives them an additional 12 goals as this is a team we have long followed in goal markets. However, they sold top scorer Leo Ceara to Antlers (see above) and he scored 21 of their 43 goals last season. They have made some inventive additions, with creative players so I expect them to continue to create chances, but they have not made a natural replacement for Ceara so it will be interesting to see how they set up.

 

Kyoto Sanga: were on fire in the second half of the campaign when they picked up an amazing 70.21% of all points and were scoring for fun, with both points and goals at 3rd place level.

 

Shonan Bellmare: they also ended the season really well, picking up 30 points in the second half of the campaign, which is top 5 level . It was their 7th straight season in J-L1 and they have yet to record a top half of the table finish, but it is possible this time around if they can build on their finish in 2024. They were the top scorers in the bottom half of the table, with three players scoring double digit goals (the only team to do so, two had two and they both finished top 4) and that threat remains and has actually been increased.

 

Albirex Niigata: They had a tough second season in the top flight after a 10th place finish in their first, but expected numbers were better and they should have recorded 7 more points, scored 3 more and conceded 9 fewer.

 

Kashiwa Reysol: are an odd one, of the teams that survived they picked up the fewest points in the second half of the season, BUT, xP gave them 56 points, a whopping 15 more and XGD was 18 goals better than the actual table suggests. However, it was much the same in 2023 when they were also 17th and they are an enigma. In both 2020 and 2022 they finished 7th and have that kind of upside, if results can start matching performance levels. A bit of a watching brief to start as they have a new head coach and have had a revolving door transfer policy this off season.

 

Gareth Southgate's former England assistant Steve Holland is the new head coach of Yokohama F. Marinos. 

The 54-year-old was Southgate's right-hand man during his eight years in charge of England. Holland worked under several managers during eight years as an assistant coach at Chelsea but his only previous experience in charge of a team was at Crewe Alexandra between 2007 and 2008.Yokohama is part of City Football Group and was coached by Tottenham's Ange Postecoglou from 2018 to 2021.

Good luck!