Japan : J-League 1 betting tip:Gamba Osaka - FC Tokyo
May 03, 2019
Japan : J-League 1:Gamba Osaka - FC Tokyo
Gamba are struggling, just one point from a possible 15 at home and last week a loss at Vegalta Sendai, who look one of the two worst teams in JL-1 ahead of that I wrote .............
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Pre season I wrote ...........
Sendai are dealing with several injuries and have had an uninspiring off season and Gakuto Notsuda who was influential last season on loan (lost 5/11 in his absence) for one, has not been adequately replaced . They collected only 44.4% of their points over the second half of the season ( Takumi Nishimura sold to CSKA Moscow in August scored in 7 of 12 wins, only 2 of which came after his departure). Vegalta also lost Okuno, Nakano and Itakura in the winter (they averaged 25 + games each and contributed 7 goals) and look much weaker at both ends of the pitch.
They are second bottom above Sagan Tosu on goal difference, I have few doubts that they are one of the two worst teams in JL-1 right now and in their rightful place, their only win came in that bottom of the table clash with Tosu. Gamba are struggling and sit in 15th due to some awful home form, picking up just one point from a possible 15 in Osaka, but 6 from 9 on the road. It is difficult to be sure about the reasons why, but Gamba have much more ability than a normal bottom 6 team and in early season I wrote ..........
........we can begin today with Gamba, they were very big favourites for us in the second half of the season under their new coach and I spoke often about having "our" Gamba back and Tsuneyasu Miyamoto understanding the club and what made it tick. I have reproduced the notes on their home game with Marinos which came late last season below the "good luck" sign off and have highlighted a couple of passage today. Gamba won that 2-1 but I was equally as impressed with Yokohama that day, maybe more so as they had over 700 passes v Gamba and no one outpasses them to that degree. Infact, it is rare for Gamba to complete under 500 passes and they were held to 330 that day.
Gamba finished the season 9th, just 3 points off 5th and won 9/10 to finish the campaign, collecting 33 of 48 points in the second half of the season.
They won for us that day, 4-2 away to SSP, but not much else has gone their way subsequently. However, I remain steadfast in my belief that they will come good and whilst League Cup form is almost worthless, Gamba needed a boost and a 4-1 home win over Jubilo in midweek was a start. They are more comfortable at present on the road, where they have won 6/8 scoring 17 goals and 3/4 h2h viists to Sendai, scoring 10.
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Gamba led , but conceded in added time at the end of both halves for one of the most frustrating defeats possible, but, to be fair, Vegalta did create a lot of chances and 11 attempts on target and 9 saves having to be made makes sorry reading for the proud team from Osaka, but the most concerning thing was that they were out passed by Sendai at times, which is close to impossible and worrying times for Gamba.
FC Tokyo are unbeaten, have conceded just 5 goals and hold a four point lead at the top of J-league 1, ahead of a home game with Urawa last month my notes included .........
Only 30km separates these two rivals and the fixture will have added spice today with FC Tokyo holding top spot in J-League 1, a position Urawa always feel they should at least be challenging for. The two teams met her in Saitama at the end of last season, just 3-4 months ago, with Urawa winning 3-2 and that has been (free scoring) how these games have tended to play out, last 10 h2h meetings here have averaged 3.6 goals, both teams have scored in 8 of those, FCT 2+ in 4/8 and Urawa 3+ in 4/5 , Reds have also scored 17 in 7 trips to the Ajinomoto Stadium in the reverse fixture, where both have also scored in 7/8. This is all noteworthy as FCT are not know as exactly free scoring, but will go toe to toe on occasion and this is one of those match ups that, for whatever reason, always seems to develop into a bit of a shoot out. FCT will know they need goals today to stay top, Urawa will move level on points with the visitors with the win. We have been here before with FCT ( a fast start) and were second for much of the first half of last season , averaging 2.0 points pg from their first 17 starts, 0.94 from the final 17, the first would have taken them to within a point of the title across the full 34 starts, the latter down to JL2 ! They do make a bit of a habit of fast starts, so I would not fully buy into them yet as the real deal.
They are, obviously, still going strong, but my concerns remain, however, no doubt that head coach Kenta Hasegawa is doing a great job and he will be super motivated returning to Osaka to face his former team, the club he led through those glory years, including the domestic treble in 2014 (happy days !).
Gamba ARE better than results suggest, they could easily have another 5-6 points on board and have goals in them ,FCT have scored just one more, but have conceded a whopping 14 fewer. The hosts are at a low point, but score and we expect them to improve at some stage, FCT are on a roll, but sooner or later they will dip, if you had shown me the odds for this game pre season, I would have fallen over my own feet in the rush to back the home win at circa 3.40 and the "upset" would not surprise me at all. Having said that, goals always look likely when Gamba play and Tokyo are not as defensive minded as people think or the table might suggest.Also, this is a fixture which traditionally produces goals with the last 10 meetings in Osaka averaging 3.9 goals, with 9 producing 3+ , FCT scoring in 8 and Gamba notching 2+ in the last 9 ! I think, win or lose the "over" is a wonderful price and have to take plenty of that and I am feeling very weak this morning, so will personally take just a little on Gamba too , with Tokyo not having won here since 2008. Gamba to win 2-1 !
2.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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