clubgowi subscribers were sent 47 previews last week, plus 20 from LGF (see previous post), 67 previews in total and that is a LOT of unique content/information and this week they are likely to receive 40-45 , plus 10 "extras" from Ligue 1.
On Saturday subscribers received notes on the Sunday "morning" J-League games, we were one goal away (Gamba 3-3) from a clean sweep, with all the other selections winning comfortably.
Remember, this is just one of 10-12 newsletters sent out each and every week !
Saturday September 24th #2
Next newsletter will be sent @ 09.00 UK time on Sunday.
Japan: J-League
Two weeks ago I wrote .....
After 15 rounds of Stage 1, I spoke about the shortage of home wins and goals in J-League ............
Where have all the home wins gone !
We are one match short of 15 rounds played in JL1 and home wins are running at 34.33% (away wins 39.55%) , this is an ongoing trend, 2013 saw 46.41% of games end in a home win. 40.85 % through 2014 and 38.56% last season. It has to stop somewhere and definitely feels way below where it should be currently and surely we will see an upturn in the coming months. Goals are correspondingly down too, which I suppose is to be expected, they have averaged 2.69 over the last three seasons and we are more than a quarter goal down on that at 2.42. We often look at these numbers and big dips and increases usually even out, at least a little, over the full campaign and we should expect an increase in both.
Since writing that, across 109 games, home wins have run at 44.03% and goals at 2.72 ,this is why I regularly take a look at these kind of stats in our leagues, they can give us a very firm indication of where these numbers are likely to "go" in the short /medium term. J-League is still running at 38.68% homes and 2.555 goals overall, so there is no real reason to expect the increase to fall away over the final rounds, given that goals tend to increase at the end of most leagues and ,as more teams have less to play for, motivation for road games should decrease a little.
Seven rounds left to play and it is very much about motivation and priorities from here on in, Japanese players do not give in easily, but the game is played at high tempo and even a small dip in intensity, which usually tends to come in the second half of games, something we have discussed quite a bit in previous seasons and will do so again over the coming weeks, can make the difference. Team news has far less importance at this stage of the campaign.
Last week I updated with ......that round saw five home wins and no draws, with goals at the rate of 2.67 pg (albeit not with a very even split). Just six rounds left to play and over the last three seasons, these rounds, that's 162 games in total, have produced just 31 draws (19.14%) so a good possibility that the shortage of stalemates will continue and that can only help !
Round 29 played out with two draws and 31 goals (3.44 pg) .
Urawa Reds- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka - FC Tokyo
Reds are closing in on the overall title and now trail Kawasaki Frontale by just two points, they have also taken the sole lead in Stage 2, but have Gamba Osaka breathing down their neck, also two points adrift. Gamba and Urawa have title "history" with Osaka steamrolling Reds aside over the closing weeks in their triple winning 2014 season, coming from five points back with four rounds left to play. Both teams will remember that all too well and with the pair set to meet in Saitama next weekend, I expect very focused performances from both today and favour each to collect maximum points and perfectly set up that titanic clash next Saturday.
Sanfrecce have only slim hopes of keeping post season dreams alive and will have to come to the capital suburbs looking only for three points and surely an open, free scoring encounter is on the cards. Urawa have scored 2+ goals in 14 of 17 starts and Sanfrecce's last three outings have produced 15 goals, with the team from Hiroshima on the wrong end of nine. The two played out a six goal thriller in the reverse meeting where we sided with 4-2 winner Sanfrecce, but at the time, Urawa were exhausted and running on empty and I expect them to serve up some revenge today. Failure to do so will put them under increased pressure for the visit from Gamba, which is the last thing they need.
1.75 units Urawa Reds -0.75 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
Last Saturday FC Tokyo lost 3-1 at home to Urawa , it has been a hugely disappointing campiagn for them and we touched upon that several times and I doubt they can match the intensity of Gamba who were at around the same time winning 3-1 at Nagoya ahead of which I wrote .............
Nagoya are four points from safety and every point between now and the end of the season will have value and they might take a draw now if one were offered, but it is hard to see any circumstances where Gamba, who are just two points off Stage 2 title pace, but behind two teams and with another four within three points of them, would allow that to happen and the visitors will surely be gambling 100% for all three points. They again made hard work of winning last week, coming from behind to beat Kofu 2-1, ahead of which I wrote .............Gamba will be really buoyed by the six goals they put past Sanfrecce, which was a wonderful confidence boost. They will want to post a fifth JL win in six starts and to continue to put pressure on the top two in Stage 2 who they trail now by just two points and they still have to play both. Gamba are used to these late season charges and whilst they are not the team of two seasons ago, unlike many other teams in the now wide open race to win Stage 2, they will be expecting, not hoping to take the title and that gives them a real advantage.
Ventforet came for a point and with a very negative mindset, Gamba made all the running and if they had taken one of the earlier chances, being denied by the woodwork and an inspired former player in the visiting goal, they would probably have run away with that, as they did against Hiroshima. But it was another win and they are cranking up the pressure at the top. I would not totally rule out the draw, as if this is level late on, Nagoya might well park the bus, especially if the two teams immediately above them have dropped points in the early games. However, I expect both of these two to be looking for the win until then and the visitors need and desire will dictate that and Gamba at odds against look value to me, in what has become a very familiar scenario for them, especially if we allocate less percentage/value to the draw. Nagoya have scored just four goals in 11 Stage 2 starts and certainly look less well equipped to handle a shoot out and Gamba could even win this easily if they could score first.
Having said team news is not as important, the loss of defensive midfielder Ryota Isomura to suspension looks tough for Grampus, he has just got fully fit again and results were starting to improve, they have played ten games against teams currently in the top six in the last two years without him and "boast" a 0-0-10 record, losing seven by 2+ goals and also conceding three or more in seven.
Wow ! That was good as Gamba won by two and scored three !
Gamba are really very good when they get into end of season mode and will be tough to stop, FCT could do so on a going day, but with nothing to play for in the league , it will surely be all about the two cups for them from here on in and they have a two legged League Cup semi final with Urawa very early next month. Gamba have a 7-2-1 record in this series in the last ten meetings in Osaka, with FCT scoring in eight and this match really has a 2-1/3-1 feel, with six of Gamba's last nine wins coming by one or other of those scorelines (three of each).
1.5 units Gamba Osaka -0.75 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.5 units Gamba Osaka -FC Tokyo "over" 2.5 goals 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.
Kawasaki Frontale- Yokohoma F. Marinos
Frontale are now under huge pressure from Urawa (see above) and remember, they led Stage 1 by a point with two rounds remaining and came up one short. So do not think for one moment they will not be feeling it big time ! Marinos only have a slim title chance now and will have one eye on their LC semi with Gamba, but they have refound their goal touch, scoring seven in the last eight days and they pose a big offensive threat when firing and they could take advantage of a nervous home side. Frontale played an hour with ten men at Omiya Ardija last week, battled away to come from behind to lead 2-1 late , only to then concede two heart breaking goals, they then needed extra time to beat second tier JEF United in midweek and I could again see them making hard work of this, they are six without a clean sheet , conceding 12 in that sequence. They will be without veteran and prolific top scorer Yoshito Okubo who is suspended, but have scored 9 goals in the 414 J-League minutes he has missed in the last three seasons and with 14 goal Yu Kobayashi in good form, their offense threat remains and motivation is great....along with nerves....goals !
1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
Vegalta Sendai- Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya were champions in 2010 and have played in Japan's top flight of football every year since its inception in 1993. That proud record might be about to end, as they are four points from safety with five rounds left to play. However, there are two, possibly even three teams they could catch and three wins would give them a chance and remaining fixtures are kind and right now, you could not ask for more than to play a team with "nothing" at stake and one who do not really do draws. Vegalta are safe and are 2-0-4 at home in Stage 2, 6-0-8 all season here in Sendai and Nagoya will make the long trip North with hope you feel and the 1-0 win at Albirex Niigata who had a lot more motivation, as they are one of the teams Grampus are hoping to catch, offers encouragement and they showed plenty of fight and desire in their 3-1 loss to Gamba (see above) last week. Sendai are without a win in four, or goal in two home starts and this really feels like a chance for Nagoya. The straight away win at good odds appeals, but a draw might not be a disaster, so on this occasion ..............
1.5 units Nagoya Grampus +0.25 ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.
Avispa Fukuoka - Vissel Kobe
Vissel's home draw with Reysol last week probably ended both of their Stage 2 title ambitions, ahead of that I spoke about Kobe as an offensive unit and the fact that they had two prolific strikers and one, Leandro was in top scorer contention ...........
I have been "tipping" Vissel Kobe as a potential improver and warning of their offensive potential for 12-15 months and am pleased that they have come good this season and a Stage 2 title push will do wonders for them and I expect them to be able to build on this next season. No point in going over all that again, so briefly last week my notes included .............Kobe were disappointed to lose out to Urawa Reds in the League Cup, but did post a 7-1 home win over Suzuka Unlimited in midweek, the visiting team were actually very limited and might look for a name change. The match was over as a contest inside 15 minutes and the value done to Vissel confidence levels would have far outdone any minimal energy levels expended by those regular first teamers who played. The visitors are 5th, but only three points off Stage 2 title pace , that is a big deal for them, an opportunity to extend their season and it will get their full attention.
They won 4-3 at Jubilo Iwata and whilst that was not for the faint hearted, they showed great determination to take the points and a brace of goals for Leandro and Pedro Jr, mean they have three players in double figures for the campaign, only two teams have more than one and they are the top two. Leandro is now joint second in the goal scoring charts, two behind Peter Utaka of Sanfrecce and this is additional motivation for him and the club, if any were needed.
Leandro scored , as did Utaka, so the gap remains two, but Leandro is second on his own now and with Okubo suspended, it is starting to look like a two horse race and Vissel will be keen to give him as much help as possible. Avispa moved above Shonan at the foot of the table with a 2-0 road win, they are still eight points from safety and a chance is a chance (very profound !) , so they will gamble and there should be plenty of space for both to exploit.
1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
