The new league starts next week and it feels like a good time to take an early look at who is likely to improve or take a backward step. I write often about J-League and the Bundesliga being the two leagues that lend themselves best to stats and 2021 JL-1 expected numbers certainly highlighted some good teams to follow/oppose last season.

 

Looking at the 2021 actual table, compared to xP , there were three teams who had overperformed big time compared to their numbers and they were .........

 

Vissel Kobe: 3rd on 73 points, xP gave them 59.............they finished 13th last season (2022).

Nagoya Grampus: 5th on 66 points, xP gave them 57..........they dropped to 8th.

Avispa Fukuoka: 8th on 54 points, xP gave them just 37, a whopping 17 fewer and they finished 14th last season.

 

The trio who played better than the table indicated were......

 

FC Tokyo:  they were 9th with 53 points, xP 18 more on 71 and they improved to 6th.

Consadole Sapporo: who were 10th with 61, they should have had 12 more, they again finished 10th, albeit with fewer points pg.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: were 10th with 49 points, xP gave them a massive 26 more and that was proved correct with a fine 3rd place finish .

 

It is hard not to be impressed with that and this season I can again highlight six teams, three potential improvers and three whom we should treat with caution.

 

Nagoya Grampus 8th with 46 points, xP  gives them 55......+9

Avispa Fukuoka 14th with 38 points, xP gives them 50.........+12

Urawa Reds 9th with 45 points, xP gives them 71 ..........+26

 

FC Tokyo were 6th on 49 points, xP only gives them 35 .........-14

Sagan Tosu were 11th on 42 points, xP says that should be 24 ..........-18

Gamba Osaka finished 15th with 37 points, xP just 18 points ..........-19

 

I will talk a little more about these six next week, but for now, I will add that long term clubgowi darlings Gamba Osaka were already very low in 15th, so might not have much downside and they are a name club, expected to do well. However, their -11 goals difference was the worst outside the drop zone and that is hardly a ringing endorsement and definite caution is advised until they prove that the real Gamba are back.

 

Urawa Reds are definitely much better than last season's league results suggest, in addition to their xP, they had the best goal difference (+9) outside the top 3 and I wrote often about them concentrating on the AFC Champions League and they reached the final of that back in August, but still await the winner of the West region to face over two legs on April 29th and May 6th this year! Seems crazy to play a 2022 final in the middle of 2023, but that is the situation. They will surely give their full concentration to matters domestic in the interim.