18 rounds played, 20 still remain.

 

 

2023/24				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Inter	18	14	3	1	42	8	+34	45	XWWW	9	7	1	1	23	5	9	7	2	0	19	3
	2		Juventus	18	13	4	1	27	11	+16	43	WWXW	9	7	2	0	13	4	9	6	2	1	14	7
	3		Milan	18	11	3	4	32	20	+12	36	WXWL	9	7	0	2	15	4	9	4	3	2	17	16
	4		Fiorentina	18	10	3	5	27	18	+9	33	WWWX	9	6	1	2	15	8	9	4	2	3	12	10
	5		Bologna	18	8	7	3	21	15	+6	31	LWWW	9	7	1	1	13	4	9	1	6	2	8	11
	6		Atalanta	18	9	2	7	29	20	+9	29	WLWW	9	6	1	2	17	7	9	3	1	5	12	13
	7		Roma	18	8	4	6	30	20	+10	28	LWLX	9	6	2	1	21	7	9	2	2	5	9	13
	8		Napoli	18	8	4	6	28	21	+7	28	OLWL	9	3	2	4	12	13	9	5	2	2	16	8
	9		Lazio	18	8	3	7	21	19	+2	27	WWLX	9	5	2	2	11	7	9	3	1	5	10	12
	10		Torino	18	6	6	6	15	18	-3	24	LXWO	9	4	4	1	9	6	9	2	2	5	6	12
	11		Monza	18	5	7	6	16	18	-2	22	OLLW	9	3	4	2	10	6	9	2	3	4	6	12
	12		Genoa	18	5	5	8	19	23	-4	20	XWXL	9	3	4	2	12	11	9	2	1	6	7	12
	13		Lecce	18	4	8	6	19	24	-5	20	LLWX	9	4	3	2	11	11	9	0	5	4	8	13
	14		Frosinone	18	5	4	9	23	31	-8	19	LLLO	9	5	2	2	15	12	9	0	2	7	8	19
	15		Udinese	18	2	11	5	18	28	-10	17	WXXL	9	1	6	2	12	14	9	1	5	3	6	14
	16		Sassuolo	18	4	4	10	25	33	-8	16	LLXL	9	2	2	5	12	15	9	2	2	5	13	18
	17		Verona	18	3	5	10	15	24	-9	14	LWLX	9	2	3	4	9	12	9	1	2	6	6	12
	18		Cagliari	18	3	5	10	16	31	-15	14	OLLW	9	3	3	3	11	15	9	0	2	7	5	16
	19		Empoli	18	3	4	11	10	30	-20	13	OLLX	9	1	2	6	5	14	9	2	2	5	5	16
	20		Salernitana	18	2	6	10	15	36	-21	12	WXLL	9	1	4	4	9	18	9	1	2	6	6	18

The current top 11 all finished top 11 last season albeit in a different order.

 

 

Last season: finished 3rd, 2nd for xP, 35 points collected over their final 20 games, won Coppa Italia and reached the Champions League final.

 

This season: xGD 38-14, xP 40.

 

Last six games: net BC's +10, net ITB attempts +11.

 

Inter are top on merit and would probably have finished top 2 for a fourth straight season in 22/23 without the Champions League and Coppa Italia distraction and they will not have the latter this season. Any team who finishes above them will be champions.

 

Last season: finished 7th (3rd without points deduction), 5th for xP, 40 points collected over their final 20 games.

 

This season: xGD 31-13 , xP 36.

 

Last six games: net BC's +9, net ITB attempts +13.

 

Juventus have no European campaign to worry about and seem certain to put in a big title push, if they collect those 40 points again from their remaining games, it will take every team apart from Inter out of the equation and really put pressure on the current leaders. Juve's next four starts are all against bottom 8 teams and a chance to really put their foot on the accelerator before they travel to Milan to play Inter next month. There is some 5.0+ around for Juventus to win the scudetto and that seems on the big side.

 

 

Last season: finished 4th, 3rd for xP, 32 points collected over their final 20 games.

 

This season: xGD 28-23, xP 29.

 

Last six games: net BC's +5, net ITB attempts -10.

 

Some of the Milan numbers give cause for concern and they got a statistical battering from Atalanta and Cagliari in the build up to Christmas and were fortunate to come away with a point at Salernitana and they give up a LOT of ITB attempts on their own goal and struggle for consistency. They also lost their way from March to early May last season, winning just 4/16 games and might again struggle with a (too) heavy schedule. They have also picked up a league high 5 red cards and need to sort that out asap.

 

 

Last season: finished 8th, 7th for xP, 33 points collected over their final 20 games, finished runner up in the Coppa Italia and European Conference League final.

 

This season: xGD 23-25, xP 25.

 

Last six games: net BC's -6, net ITB attempts +17.

 

La Viola were unfortunate not to win some silverware last season and impressed at times, but less so this season despite their lofty league position and were beyond awful in a recent home game with Verona where they could have conceded 5-6 goals and I am struggling to get that performance out of my mind. When they are on song they can beat anyone and I think that is how they should be bet, back them at big odds, but be very cautious about them at skinny quotes. 

 

 

Last season: finished 9th, 12th for xP, 32 points collected over their final 20 games.

 

This season: xGD 22-18, xP 27.

 

Last six games: net BC's 0, net ITB attempts +5.

 

Great 2023 for Bologna, last season they recorded their first finish (9th) inside the top 10 since promotion in 2015 and that has given them a solid platform to build on and they have done so, sitting 5th coming into this round and in the Coppa Italia quarter finals for the first time since 2012/13. It was 4th until a blip at Udinese last week, but it was just their second defeat in 19 starts and they had faced Atalanta-Inter- Roma inside 13 days prior to that, beating all three (Inter on the road after extra time) , so we can cut them a little slack.  Head coach Thiago Motta will be on the short list of any top job that comes up and that is a concern, but right now they look genuine European contenders and they and Juventus are the only top 9 teams not involved in European football which is an advantage.

 

 

Last season: finished 5th, 6th for xP, 30 points collected over their final 20 games.

 

This season: xGD 27-19, xP 31.

 

Last six games: net BC's -1, net ITB attempts +23.

 

Atalanta looked to be finding some form in December and numbers in a few games looked very good indeed and they can forget about Europe until March and have progressed in the Coppa Italia this week. They should record an eighth straight top 8 finish which is a remarkable achievement for a club of their size, but target will surely be a return to Champions league football, which means top 4 or 5 (Serie A is in pole position to claim a 5th spot for next season, see above) or by winning the Europa League.

 

 

Last season: finished 6th, 4th for xP, 29 points collected over their final 20 games (fewest amongst the top 11), runner up in the Europa League. XGD suggests they should have been a net 16 goals better off.

 

This season: xGD 26-18, xP 30.

 

Last six games: net BC's +3, net ITB attempts +9.

 

Roma have scored 7 more goals than at this stage last season , when they did not play up to their numbers ( see above) and they took just 7 points from their final 8 league games, putting all their eggs into a Europe League basket and they ended up broken. They basically threw away a Champions League place that was there for the taking and they cannot allow that to happen again if the chance comes about. However, a big cause for concern about them in the most important fixtures when the pressure is on, they lost that European final and have now gone 10 games with beating a team currently above them in the table, losing 7 of those and that is not good enough. 

 

 

Last season: finished as champions, also 1st for xP, 43 points collected over their final 20 games (most in Serie A).

 

This season: xGD 33-20, xP 33.

 

Last six games: net BC's +5, net ITB attempts +13.

 

Five defeats and five without a goal in Napoli's last 8 games and second head coach of the season, Walter Mazzarri, has yet to turn things around and must already be under pressure and certainly is in the Italian sporting press, who ripped him to shreds after their last game. It is a dire title defence so far and the wild and crazy scenes of celebration in Naples of last May already seem like a long forgotten memory. However, underlying numbers are not bad and they are creating plenty of chances, the loss of top scorer Victor Osimhen to the ACN hardly helps in that regard, but they did win 8 of the 10 games he sat out last season (league and Champions League), scoring 24 goals ( 11 different scorers, although Raspadori and Simeone had 9 between them, a respective 4 and 5). Maybe his absence will force the head coach into being braver and/or more aggressive, things cannot get much worse. 

 

 

Last season: finished 2nd, 8th for xP, 40 points collected over their final 20 games. XGD suggests they should have been a net 24 goals worse off.

 

This season: xGD 26-20, xP 29.

 

Last six games: net BC's +4, net ITB attempts +22.

 

Lazio were very fortunate to finish 2nd last season and everything suggested they were more like 7th/8th place level and that is where they are currently, but they did come on strong over those final 20 games, with only Napoli collecting more points. They have scored 10 goals fewer than at this stage last season and 15 fewer than in 2021/22, they have lost Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to Saudi, he contributed 11 goals and 11 assists in 21/22 and 9 and 8 last season and Ciro Immobile, with a respective 27-3 and 12-5 will be 34 years old next month and being used increasingly sparingly and no one has, of yet, picked up the slack.

 

 

Last season: finished 10th, 9th for xP, 30 points collected over their final 20 games.

 

This season: xGD 19-19, xP 25.

 

Last six games: net BC's +2, net ITB attempts +11.

 

10th last season when they were 9th for xP, they are currently in exactly the same positions and they are the most average team in Serie A, but nothing wrong with that and all their numbers remain remarkably similar. They do not score or concede many goals and have scored either nil or one goals in 25 of their last 30 league starts and it is hard to find a betting angle with which to side with them, having said that ,7 of those 30 have finished 1-1 and that is a far better option than both teams to score , which has occured just a total of ten times in that sequence.

 

 

Last season, their first ever in the top flight: finished 11th, 13th for xP, 31 points collected over their final 20 games.

 

This season: xGD 22-29, xP 20.

 

Last six games: net BC's -12, net ITB attempts -33.

 

I was full of praise and hope for Monza last season, their first ever in Serie A and hard to see how it could have gone much better, especially as they took just a single point from their first six games, after which they played at 8th place level (1.59375 points pg), finishing 11th. They are in the same position currently, but their expected numbers are nowhere near that level and for the last six games are the worst in the division by some way, just four goals scored in their last seven starts and I would advise caution until we see an upturn in performance levels.

 

 

Promoted.

 

This season: xGD 17-20, xP 21.

 

Last six games: net BC's -3, net ITB attempts +22.

 

Fine start from promoted Genoa who would not be the first team to benefit from a season in the second tier, sometimes it offers the opportunity to restore confidence and press the restart button. Their last three games have seen them win at Sassuolo and draw with the top 2 and on the back of a further three games where they were a net +24 for ITB attempts, that makes impressive reading, not a team to oppose lightly at present.

 

 

Last season: finished 16th, 14th for xP, 20 points collected over their final 20 games.

 

This season: xGD 20-34, xP 15.

 

Last six games: net BC's -6, net ITB attempts -26.

 

Lecce got very close to the drop zone at the end of last season and despite being 13th currently, they look in trouble, with xP placing them 19th and xGA suggesting they should have conceded an additional 10 goals, all backed up by last six game numbers. The loss of DM Morten Hjulmand who was sold for a big fee in the summer has been reflected in Lecce's expected numbers, but not yet fully in results.

 

 

Promoted.

 

This season: xGD 22-29, xP 20.

 

Last six games: net BC's +1, net ITB attempts -21.

 

This is Frosinone's third season in the top flight in the last decade, they were relegated in the other two, but have made a better start this season, picking up a respective 9 and 4 points more. However, they lost 12 and 13 of their last 20 games in those two campaigns and it would be a surprise were they not to get dragged into the relegation battle at some stage.

 

 

Last season: finished 12th, 11th for xP, 21 points collected over their final 20 games, which was the second fewest amongst clubs who survived.

 

This season: xGD 23-26, xP 24.

 

Last six games: net BC's 0, net ITB attempts -22.

 

11 draws this season for Udinese, but the days of catenaccio are long gone and stalemate after stalemate will not get you far in modern football. Their last 38 league games , which is a full season's worth of fixtures, have played out 7-17-14 with a 39-55 goal difference, that would usually see a team finish 16th and after 7 straight 12th-14th place finishes, they seem to have fallen from that level. However, expected numbers suggest they are better than that and they are coming off a shock 3-0 win over highflying Bologna, but that might just be a brief respite, they were playing a weary team which I have already mentioned and it is 10 months since Udine won back to back games.

 

 

Last season: finished 13th, 10th for xP, 29 points collected over their final 20 games (most outside the top 11).

 

This season: xGD 26-31, xP 23.

 

Last six games: net BC's +3, net ITB attempts -17.

 

I will be surprised if Sassuolo do not pick up and pull away from the drop zone, they were strong in the second half of last season and regular readers know that they can raise their level even, and especially, against Serie A elite teams. Expected numbers are decent enough and they created 14 BC's and an xGF of 10.8 in their last six starts, despite collecting only 4 points, they will come good at some stage.

 

 

Last season: finished 17th, 15th for xP, 22 points collected over their final 20 games, after averaging just 0.5 per game from their first 18 starts.

 

This season: xGD 18-25 , xP 19.

 

Last six games: net BC's +7, net ITB attempts +10.

 

Verona looked booked for the drop last New Year, but upped their game to survive and xP suggests there is a little improvement to come and their last six game numbers are sensational for a bottom four team. They got a bit of a gloss from a recent trip to Fiorentina where they were 8-0 for BC's and 14-5 ITB, but, if anything, those stats flattered La Viola and it is hard to put into words just how good Verona looked that day. They appear ideally suited to playing on the road and did score three away to Udinese ( who franked that form last time out) in their away start prior to that.

 

 

Promoted.

 

This season: xGD 22-27, xP 21.

 

Last six games: net BC's -2, net ITB attempts +12.

 

We were big on Cagliari in the Serie B playoffs last season under wily and vastly experienced head coach Claudio Ranieri and I do expect him to keep the Sardinian side up.They have plenty of blue in the numbers above and finished strongly last season. Ranieri made 10 changes for this midweek's Coppa Italia game and made his priorities 100% clear, it is all about survival and all he has to concentrate on now are the remaining 20 league games. His team were only 12th in Serie B at this stage last season, so he will be expecting improvement in terms of results. They have outplayed Empoli, Sassuolo and Monza in the last month or so and have already played 7 of the top 10 on the road.

 

 

Last season: finished 14th, 16th for xP, 21 points collected over their final 20 games. XGA suggests they should have conceded an extra 15 goals.

 

This season: xGD 17-30, xP 17.

 

Last six games: net BC's -9, net ITB attempts -19.

 

Empoli have finished 18-18-14-14 in their last four seasons at this level and expected levels suggest they were perhaps fortunate to survive a third relegation last season. Having only scored 10 goals this season which is 5 fewer than anyone else and with the goals against column now on par with what it should have been in 22/23 and last six game numbers going from bad to worse , with not a single BC created in their last three outings and 3 or fewer ITB attempts created in three of their last five starts, they look in big trouble. They sold their two best defenders and goalkeeper in the summer and no surprise those defensive issues, long in the offering, have now come home to roost and with goals scored at a premium, it is going to be a long five months for Empoli supporters.

 

 

Last season: finished 15th, 18th for xP, 24 points collected over their final 20 games (second most outside the top 11).

 

This season: xGD 16-32, xP 14.

 

Last six games: net BC's -10, net ITB attempts -20.

 

Sometimes you have to note that numbers and results have been bad and just ignore them! This is one such case, as we know from experience that Salernitana can dig themselves out of a hole and last week, ahead of just their second win of the campaign my notes touched upon that and how they have started to show improvement .......

 

 

 

Numbers in blue type are good in relation to league position, numbers in red are relatively poor.