Hat-trick is on the cards: Spurs at the double!
May 13, 2023
Premier League: Aston Villa- Tottenham Hotspur
| 2022/23 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Manchester City | 34 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 89 | 31 | +58 | 82 | WWWW | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 14 | ||
| 2 | Arsenal | 35 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 83 | 39 | +44 | 81 | WWLX | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 17 | ||
| 3 | Newcastle United | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 61 | 29 | +32 | 65 | LWWW | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 13 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 16 | ||
| 4 | Manchester United | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 41 | +8 | 63 | LLWX | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 33 | ||
| 5 | Liverpool | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 67 | 42 | +25 | 62 | WWWW | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 45 | 16 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 26 | ||
| 6 | Tottenham Hotspur | 35 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 64 | 57 | +7 | 57 | WLXL | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 35 | ||
| 7 | Brighton & HA | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 63 | 45 | +18 | 55 | LWWL | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 26 | ||
| 8 | Aston Villa | 35 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 54 | LLWX | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 24 | ||
Tottenham have conceded the most goals amongst the top 13 teams in the EPL, actually at least seven more than the other 12 clubs and 15+ more than the team currently above them, it is an awful defensive record. However, you will note that they have a plus goal difference and that is because only the top 2 and Liverpool have scored more. We sided with them to score twice in back to back games as April turned into May, a 2-2 home draw with Manchester United and trip to Anfield ........
On Thursday Tottenham hosted Manchester United on the back of that horror show performance at Newcastle last Sunday ..........
Tottenham now have Ryan Mason in sole charge of the squad after interim boss Cristian Stellini was released after just four games, following the capitulation and shameful performance at Newcastle United on Sunday, which at times felt like watching a train wreck! Later that same day United beat Brighton on penalties to set up an all Manchester FA Cup final with City to end the campaign and with the League Cup already won and a top 4 finish there for the taking, it will be viewed as a hugely successful first season for Erik Ten Hag. However, a few question marks, they don't score enough and defeats at Liverpool (7-0) , Brentford (4-0), Man City (6-3 .... 6-1 very late) and Sevilla (3-0) make for very poor reading, hint at a soft underbelly and highlight that the head coach still has a lot of work to do. They have performed awfully away to top 9 teams........
0-7 Liverpool
0-2 Newcastle
2-3 Arsenal
1-3 Villa
3-6 City
0-4 Brentford
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1-3 Arsenal
0-4 Liverpool
1-4 City
Nine straight losses, all but one by 2+ goals, conceding at the rate of 4.0 per game on average! The more eagle eyed amongst you will have noticed that Tottenham are not on that list and United did win here in North London early last season and by 3-0, they are actually unbeaten in four visits, winning three.
Spurs have now lost two in a row, that is not unusual, they have done so on five previous occasions already this season, twice in 21/22 and twice also late in 20/21 , but it is 26 months since they lost three consecutive games and they are 7-2-0 next time out after those last nine back to back defeats. So we can expect a reaction following such an horrendous showing on Sunday and the home crowd will be absolutely demanding it. Their home average goals of 2.06 pg is 4th best and Harry Kane, who is on course for his best scoring season since 17/18 and will be eager to impress against one of the favourites for his signature. He turns 30 this summer and also enters the final year of his contract and surely, this time, he will depart. Three runner up medals is a poor career return for a striker with his quality. Kane could also score 30 EPL goals this season and not win the Golden Boot for the second time in his career, he lost out to Mo Salah in 17/18 (32 to Harry's 30) , that must be hard to swallow as he already has more goals (24) than the winner in the four interim years!
We did get a reaction from Spurs, it took a while to come and only after they left the pitch at half time to the sound of booing and trailing 2-0, but they scored twice to come away with a point and second half numbers , which suggest that was fully justified (2.2 xGF), should mean they travel north in slightly better spirits than they might otherwise have done. I did say slightly as this is not a team who look likely to keep a clean sheet or come close to it right now, they have conceded 16 goals in six starts and it might easily have been more. The visitors also have a beyond awful record at Anfield where they have won just twice in 30 visits, the last of which was 12 years ago. They have managed a few draws along the way, three in the last nine and usually score (in 8 of 9), but generally find a way to lose and doing so with both teams scoring is a bit of a staple.
I am not sure what Tottenham expect now from this season (or going forward as they need a rebuild), they look way off top 4 pace and inferior to the three teams (Villa/Liverpool/ Brighton) immediately behind them in the table. I suppose Ryan Mason's aim is stopping the rot and trying to hold on to a European spot, but do they really want one in the ECL, the Europa League is different. Liverpool are unbeaten in five, scoring 13 in the last four, but those defensive holes we have written about so often remain and in those four, they trailed 2-0 at home to Arsenal(2-2) conceded twice at home to a Forest side who have been awful on the road all season and who showed no offensive ambition at all at Brentford yesterday and won 2-1 at West Ham where they should have conceded at least twice. They did win 6-1 at Elland Road, but Leeds "gave up" in that and were defending like a poor League 2 team.
Pool cannot defend set pieces, I detailed that on Wednesday and Tottenham have scored the 3rd most EPL goals from dead balls, so a real avenue to chances for them with that and they also showed in that second half against United, what they can create with relatively little possession. Liverpool have one clean sheet in eight starts and they gave up 2.2 xGA to a team for whom the goals have dried up in that. Tottenham can score for the 6th visit to Anfield running, to get a result they will need two goals (at least).
Spurs were awful for the opening 30 minutes, barely pressed or got out of their own third of the field and found themselves 3-0 down ! However, from that point on they might have scored 5-6, did score three to draw level in added time and then conceded to lose 4-3! You could not make it up, but that is why television companies fall over themselves to pay huge money to show EPL games, they are Fun, with a capital F!
They now travel to Villa Park for a game which will go some way to deciding top 6 and it is a venue that Spurs always do well at, they have won 8 in a row here, scoring 23 goals, 2+ in all eight. It is all about them offensively , don't expect a clean sheet, they are not strong enough defensively and have to play to their strengths and it is all too obvious what they are. A 9th straight win might be likely at VP, but a 9th straight 2 goal performance offers better value . Villa do have five straight clean sheets at home, but three were against struggling teams, two others were "no shows ", they gave up 11 in the four starts prior to that including two to a League 2 team and four to one likely to be playing Championship football next season. I also saw them at Lionel Road just three weeks ago and they were very average that day and rode their luck defensively.
2.25 units Tottenham Hotspur to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.49 asian line.
Good luck!
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