A quick look at any league table will tell you how many games each team has won and the number of points they have collected, but there are many ways to arrive at the win and three points and, with live betting offered on so many games and more fixtures than ever set to be televised once sport restarts, we can take a look at a few of those today.

 

I have chosen the Championship in England which is often called the 6th biggest in Europe, but it should be ranked far higher in terms of competitiveness and small margins are always likely to decide games in this league. It is also the one I watch most often and where I get to see circa 35-40 games live each season.

 

I want to throw up a few examples of the kind of thing I think we should be looking for and try to offer explanations for why they may occur and whilst a little knowledge is often cited as a dangerous thing, when allied to stats, something seen with your own eyes can certainly help us to view the bigger picture.

 

There are any number of stats available and a little research can go a long way and if you can find your own way to utilise this information you will be a step ahead of the betting markets and I think there is huge value available "in running" in all leagues.

 

Anyway, let's throw out a few stats and then take a look at them in greater depth, in terms of first and second half betting I want to highlight three teams....... "newly" promoted Charlton Athletic who are struggling, mid table Sheffield Wednesday and highflying promotion hopefuls Nottingham Forest, which gives us a good cross section of ability.

 

Athletic have collected 26 points at the Valley, winning 7 games which is probably about average for a bottom three team through 37 games, anything less and you are unlikely to survive, I guess most of you know my thoughts on whether or not The Addicks will stay up, but that is not the point of today's notes. Charlton are awful after the break, winning just three second halves and collecting 16 points, totals which rank them #24 (bottom) in the Championship . However, in the opening 45 minutes they have a 8-9-2 record, giving them 33 points and a #2 ranking, also scoring 60% of home goals in this period which is the "wrong way round" (with the majority of goals in football coming after the break).  Charlton started the season well in terms of results, but their ITB stats were always poor and in early season when Athletic were top 2, I noted " they (Charlton) do not look as strong on paper as the team who finished third in League 1 last season, infact, they are definitely not and the losses of key players in Dijksteel, Bauer and Aribo were always going to be tough to overcome."

 

Charlton are not very good and are paying the price for a lack of investment in two transfer windows, when that was not what was promised by owners. I repeat that they are substandard to the team who came up from the third tier and that is never going to work out well in the Championship. They have a youthful squad (5th youngest), that alone doesn't have to be a bad thing, but of the 8 youngest groups in the second tier only one is top 10 (4th placed Brentford ......more of whom later) and the other seven make up three of the bottom four and have an average league placing of 18.4 . It is a journeyman squad, what they have by way of experience is perhaps a bit too long in the tooth and with limited bench options, they are always likely to struggle later rather than sooner in games and that goes doubly so for later in the season, once opposition have more data on them and meaning a high tempo start to games cannot be kept up for the full 90 minutes. The Valley is not the most intimidating of venues either and opponents can be further inspired by kicking towards a usually fairly full away end in the second half, when there are plenty of empty seats elsewhere in home areas.

 

Sheffield Wednesday look safe in lower mid table on 48 points ( a possible points deduction need not bother us today) and they have a very similar home record to Charlton, collecting the same 7 wins and 26 points. However, those points have been picked up in a mirror image to the Addicks, with Wednesday ranked #24 before the break ( 3 wins and 17 points), but a very decent 9-5-4 (32 points) good for 5th place in the second half table.  The Owls are an odd one, they are a club and set of supporters who I have a lot of time for, but have off the pitch issues and whilst stats (XP and ITB) have been good and of playoff level, there has been something "wrong" with them and after I saw them at Hillsborough in early December in what was a microcosm of their home season (HT 0-1, FT 2-1)  I noted: I saw Wednesday- Brentford on Saturday, late injury and illness meant that the Bees were without two of their starting back four in Pontus Jansson and Henrik Dalsgaard, the latter was replaced by young Danish right back Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (future star !) who was making his first team debut start. Despite that,Brentford dominated the first half , led 1-0 at the break and should have been two or three up at that time, it was the archetypal game of two halves though and Wednesday scored twice inside 3-4 minutes midway through the second, both from the same flank, with Kadeen Harris providing each from the side protected by Roerslev. The first was a gifted handball/penalty in a defining moment of the game.

At the time Wednesday were 6th just 3 points off second, now they are 15th.

 

It took them an age to get going that day and most other games too it seems, with 75% of home goals scored after the break and 57% of those conceded coming before it ! One thing that Wednesday do have in stark contrast to Charlton is a large number of quality experienced players like Steven Fletcher, Fernando Forestieri and the always excellent Barry Bannan and they are the second oldest group in the Championship. I am not sure that is ideal, you need a mix of age, but when games are close and in the balance, these options and experience are vital through the hour mark and beyond. It is different for them when games are "lost" , either reduced to ten men or two+ goals down , as I think it is then too easy for the old hands to think I will save something for another day and I have seen that several times from them this season, especially on the road. At Hillsborough they almost always have a big crowd backing them and teams will usually raise their game early at the famous old ground, but worth looking at Wednesday late on at home when trailing by a single goal or level and with points still in the balance.

 

Nottingham Forest are 5th and look good for the playoffs, but all stats indicate they are not of that level, neither are they a team I want to watch very often, as head coach Sabri Lamouchi is way too negative for my liking and is of the one goal is plenty philosophy and very much of a reactive rather than proactive mindset. They are a team very happy at 0-0 and it is only when they fall behind that we see full use of their expensively assembled squad, or late in the game when they might take a few more chances. I do not think this is how football should be played and whilst it was initially successful for Huddersfield and Middlesbrough two teams who set up similarly prior to promotion, it has ended, if not in tears, then with both having eventually gone backwards in terms of league position and finances. It is just not the way to thrive in modern football.

 

Having said that, and this is what makes it all the more frustrating, Lamouchi is tactically astute and makes good adjustments, albeit only when "needed", his team are ranked #23 for the first half of home games with an identical opening 45 minute record to Sheffield Wednesday, but they are #1 and unbeaten after it, with a 8-10-0 record and league high 34 points, in all games played home and away Forest have lost just one of 37 second halves, but will too often settle for a point when three might well be up for grabs.

 

All three teams are pretty average at home, Forest below so for a top 5 team, but they and Wednesday are always worth a look in the second half and Charlton in the opening period.

 

Something else I mention regularly are the 15 minute splits for games and I feel they are a great aid to "in play" betting and I would like to discuss two teams in this regard, Leeds United and Brentford whom both ITB and XP have ranked as top 2 almost all season.

 

Let's start with the Bees who on a very limited budget compared to some very big spending second tier clubs, but who have outperformed most outsiders expectations in six straight Championship seasons, for my money they are the best run club in world football ,as they have achieved this whilst turning an enormous profit in the transfer window thanks to access to a very talented and huge analytics department , always selling if the price ir right and then upgrading at lower, but increasingly rising prices . Spending at first in the £1m range and selling for £6-8m, they are now buying around the £3-4m level and have four players valued in the £20-30m range, policy is to also largely only sign young players to maximise sell on value and it is a youthful set up, the second youngest squad in the Championship. They have also delivered a brand new stadium ready to move into next season, debt free and actually at a profit and they are run unlike any other football club

 

Anyway, I digress, in the second 15 minute split, that's between the 16th and 30th minute of games, the second best team has an 8-4 (+4) goal difference, Brentford are 19-2 (+17) ! Through the final "15" of games which is the 76th minute onwards and could run to 20 minutes or more of course, Brentford are also #1 with a 13-2 goal difference, second best is +8 and every other team has conceded between 7-18 goals through this sequence.

 

The numbers for late in the game are perhaps easier to explain, Brentford players have fitness levels beyond most teams and through the last 5-7 seasons they have tended to improve through games, especially after the break. This season they have improved defensively out of all recognition, they and Leeds have put up by far the best numbers at the back all season, way clear of the rest of the Championship and the Bees have recently edged ahead in this category of a very good United side. The 16th -30th minute stats are remarkable, Brentford are not the best starters and are sometimes guilty of falling out of the blocks and they have trailed inside 15 minutes in 5 of their 11 defeats and this is clearly an area where they can improve and might be put up as a reason for them "chasing" games early and then improving, but that hardly explains such an immediate turnaround in so many games. We have already touched upon the huge amount of data Brentford have on their opponents and I have seen them going through so much of this on the sidelines (pictured) and attempting to get this information to players at every opportunity and getting input back from players every time there is a break in play ,once they see how the opposition is set up. I think this explains it better, we expect something similar from all teams in the second half and especially around the hour mark, but, always looking to innovate, I think Brentford are changing things up as early as possible and the 16th to 30th minute is the new 66th-75th , you heard it here first !

 

A sign of a well coached team are the tactical changes made during games especially use of the bench and these occur most of all and are easiest to implement at half time and in the early part of the second half and this is when so many games are won at every level and even nowadays, bench strength is undervalued IMO and it is then that a great coaching staff can come into its own.  Leeds have a stunning 23-6 goal difference between the 46th -75th minutes and, Marcelo Bielsa who most would name as the best coach in the Championship, has not sat on a bucket for the first hour of games to then sit on his hands when it comes time to take action ! It is not easy to bet one of the best teams in any division at good odds, but with this kind of information we can do so at big prices and when the team is at their most productive.

 

We have a mountain of stats at our disposal in every league and most can be used to our advantage with a little thought, especially if we can reason why such trends are happening. Although I started by saying "small margins are always likely to decide games in this league", shrewd tactical adjustments, utilizing a strong bench and knowing when teams are likely to step on or off the gas, are not small margins. 

 

I have used the Championship today, to be honest with 37 out of 46 games played it is perhaps a bit late in the campaign, but doesn't make the way of thinking in the future any less worthy or worthwhile, it is just that late in the season there are other considerations, I would usually suggest taking a good look at these kind of numbers once say 25% of games have been played and that they are of most value though the middle 50% of a season.