The future is unwritten..................or maybe not !
Aug 18, 2019
You can read a full copy of Saturday's subscriber newsletter below, 6 of the 7 suggested bets won, but the real reason for reproducing them is to give you some idea about how we look at games/events, with an eye not just on the day in question, but also the future. I updated this morning with a few words about the losing selection .............
"Brentford denied us a clean sweep yesterday, but we did go 6/7, no complaints with that result, Hull City were better than I thought and looked possibly upper mid table. Grant McCann has got them well organised very quickly and they worked incredibly hard, tried to get forward at every opportunity and pressed high and hard, there was much to like, Having said that, my pre match comments about Bowen and Grosicki remain and. I would at least be looking at the possibility of opposing them if either were missing. Bees were denied a clear penalty late on and at the death missed an absolute sitter of a chance, but really, no arguments with the result and we learned something which is always good and the Tigers will be a good barometer against which to judge other Championship teams. Brentford will improve from this point on, got 20-25 minutes out of star player Said Benrahma, front three of him Mbeumo and Watkins have unlimited potential and could run riot if they really click and the Bees will be very good in a month's time when all the new signings will be more up to speed with this very tough and unforgiving league."
I know some of you are only interested in today and maybe even solely what is happening in the next ten minutes, but you really ought to be looking at the bigger picture and trying to find something that puts you ahead of the pack and can be of help possibly multi times in the near future.
I have previewed four events today with five selections which I hope will be of value today, but I have highlighted two teams , one I expect to thrive, the other to struggle going forward and I feel pretty certain they will repay following in the coming weeks and see that as what sets clubgowi apart and it has done for 13 + years. The email below cost an established, long term clubgowi subscriber about 1 euro.
Saturday August 17th
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Sunday .
Premier League:
Aston Villa - AFC Bournemouth
Bournemouth featured heavily in my pre season notes and they were reproduced last Saturday, if you want to take another look, ahead of a 1-1 draw with Sheffield United. The Cherries never really got going there, conditions did not help, wind and a slow pitch was not to their advantage, but in truth they did not play with a lot of rhythm or tempo and it was all fairly lacklustre, head coach Eddie Howe was at a bit of a loss to understand why, but they did lead and looked likely to win anyway, until an error from a set piece so I am not going to overly worry about that now. They now travel to what will be a rammed Villa Park with home supporters of this massive club buoyed by what they saw at Tottenham last week, Villa looked the better team early and were still leading with 17 minutes remaining. However, they lost 3-1 and they looked exhausted even with 25-30 minutes remaining and the ball was just coming back time and time again and Villa unable to get outside their own half, ot third of the pitch is probably truer. The substitutions didn't help much, especially Jota who has a wand of a left foot,but the right is just for standing on and maybe that is not enough at this level, anyway, he needs to step up and has a lot to prove, as do Villa, despite how well they played early. Games last for 90 minutes +, not 60 and I cannot get out of my head how little they had in the tank late in the game, we expect all teams to tire in the opening game or two, but this was something else. The pace of the game in England surprises a lot of players, of the 13 outfield players who featured at WHL, none played top flight football last season, nine never have and four have never played a competitive match of any sort in the country at any level. That is a lot to try and integrate and head coach Dean Smith also has no top flight experience, it is a learning curve for all.
Personally, I think I will be looking to bet against Villa late in games until I see that those issues have been dealt with and players come up to pace/speed with football at this level and that will be the case for today, but if that option is not available to you, I do think there is still a little value in the visitors off level ball.
1.5 units Bournemouth level ball 2.22 asian line/Sportmarket.
Championship:
Brentford- Hull City
The Bees kick started things last week with a win at Middlesbrough, I wrote some lengthy notes on that game, but the Brentford part read .............
Last Saturday I wrote a few words about Brentford- Birmingham City ...............
Next I will discuss Brentford-Birmingham, but I am not going to look at the Bees, we have already touched on them this week, so just the Blues. What a mess this club is and how badly they have been run for many years ! But for today I will only look at the summer's business. They have got rid of Garry Monk and given Pep Clotet the gig, the consensus on the new head coach is that he is a decent coach, but poor manager and with some terrible man management skills. His only managerial role was at Oxford United and boy, I have heard some stories about that ! Anyway, for now , let's just say he has a lot to prove and City have again switched a competent boss for an untried one and it is never worked out well before ! City sold Che Adams ( started every game , 22 goals 5 assists) and fomer Bees star Jota (3 goals, 9 assists), these were their two main attacking outlets contributing to 39 goals (some overlap) in a team who scored 64, so 61%, they were the two most skillful players too and replaced them with Dan Crowley of Willem II, he has potential, but played just 850 minutes of English football and at L1 level. They are looking to add and had 7m to spend, so what did they do, sign a defensive midfielder for the whole sum, as good as Ivan Sunjic might be, that is a position with limited sell on value and not what they need, they have two players on free transfer from the Spanish third tier (?) who might both start today and City look suspect at the back and short of options up top. They were awful in a 4-0 loss to Brighton last week , Maikel Kieftenbeld is out until January with a serious cruciate ligament injury(won 1 in 14 in his absence).
City won that 1-0, I re-watched the game this week and still find it hard to know how the Blues avoided a very heavy defea,t let alone won ! 75% possession, attempts 15-1, inside box 10-0, hit woodwork 4-0, 718 passes (500 more than City) all in favour of the Bees. City scored with the only chance they created, a header from outside the box no less, they crossed the half way line I think three times in the first half and should have been 3-4 goals down at the break. Nothing happened that I didn't expect, Bees looked very good, despite being a little short handed and have made a quantum leap forward defensively with the additions of Pontus Jansson and Ethan Pinnock at the back, they will have more options today with Christian Norgaard, Joel Valencia and Bryan Mbeumo all pushing to be included, Kamohelo Mokotjo and Said Benrahma will both also be available soon and the squad is looking immense. Mathias Jensen was MOTM for the first 60 minutes on his debut last week and will be better up to speed with the pace of the Championship for today.
We can talk about Town again another day, with regard to Boro, I liked what I saw in that they did attack and this was as far removed from a Karanka team as possible and that can only be good for Boro long term and their supporters. However, they look suspect at the back and they were a bit one dimensional in that offensive play and it will continue to cost them, especially against the stronger Championship teams. I think we will see a lot of "overs" from them, but Brentford look as solid at the back as at anytime in five Championship seasons ( it is not even close) and they have to be the pick off level ball.
That was a game of two halves, Boro were better in the opening 45 minutes, Brentford in the second, but the win was a big factor and the Bees knew that if they held out until the break, Boro could never press them into the wind in the second half and that worked perfectly and when Brentford scored early in the second period the result was never in doubt and the visiting goal not tested. Players and management celebrated long with supporters after the game and it felt like a big result , albeit early in the campaign. Now they need to get that City loss out of the system at Griffin Park .
Hull City have started with a loss at Swansea and win at home to what looks a very weak Reading, both by the same 2-1 scoreline. The Tigers feel like another transition team and there are a lot of them in the Championship this season, they have continued to off load big earners and this has been a long two year process and new head coach Grant McCann who took over from Nigel Adkins in the summer, replaced them with what he nows and what the budget would allow, which was lower league players and some loanees. That doesn't have to be bad, but Adkins had done a good job in very difficult circumstances and he would have stayed at most clubs. City have a very young group and head coach with little Championship experience, they did keep Jarrod Bowen and Kamil Grosicki which was huge and the duo have already 2 goals and an assist between them, they had 31-16 combined last season and pose almost all of their attacking threat . Teams should know more about the duo now and the other main City contributors in Frazier Campbell and Evandro have left, so the threat is not exactly all over the pitch. Bees should have increased options for today with players returning, but in truth, a repeat of the opening day chances should be enough to win this comfortably.
1.75 units Brentford -1 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.
Wigan Athletic- Leeds United
I think leeds are at their best on the road (when teams come onto them more and don't just sit back) and in early season, when all those double and treble training sessions give them an edge, before it is worn away by a 46 game gruelling Championship campaign, something we spoke of often last season. anyway, they looked very good in an opening weekend win at a decent Bristol City team, where United appeared on another level and they also ran in three without reply at Salford in the cup on Tuesday. They return to Greater Manchester today and the wide open spaces of the DW stadium should suit them very well indeed as it did last season in a comfortable win. There is also the small matter of some revenge for the April win at Elland Road from Wigan, which came totally out of the blue and was the catalyst for United blowing their automatic promotion spot. Athletic were a goal and player down early in the game and somehow won after almost 80 minutes a man light. Marcelo Bielsa said a month later that still didn't understand how that happened, so we know it hasn't been forgotten and time for a little payback.
I was a little surprised that Athletic beat Cardiff City here on opening day, but the truth is that the visitors conceded three poor goals and should have perhaps scored more, the Latics then went to Preston and lost 3-0 and were fortunate to score nil ! They might have sconceded 8-9 across the two games and there has to be goals in this for United. The visitors will have circa 6,000 supporters in the ground and will make up some 40% of the attendance.
1.75 units Leeds United -0.75 ball 2.18 asian line/Sportmarket.
J-League 1:
Vissel Kobe- Urawa Reds
Oita Trinita- Kashima Antlers
Oita Trinita- Vissel Kobe was one of our previews last weekend ................
Last week I previewed Vissel- Gamba ............
Two teams we have discussed as much as any other in world football over the last 3-4 seasons. I have always been a fan of Gamba, their style of football involves a lot of passes and is heavy on possession, but when it all works it is very effective and pleasing on the eye, after a bad start last season, they got back to winning ways under head coach Tsuneyasu Miyamoto and ended 2018 on fire. He understands the club, what makes them tick and has overseen a bit of a transition to a more youthful squad and that is a work in progress, but it is being done in a balanced way and slowly. They again fell out of the blocks this time around, albeit not quite to the extent of last year, but have refound their form, their only loss in 9 starts was away to leaders FC Tokyo,but Gamba led for 32 minutes, missed some big chances and looked the better team there, the game changing in three minutes late in the first half. They have re-signed favourite son and oft discussed Takashi Usami who scored last week on his THIRD debut for the club and also added (re-signed) prolific striker Patric this last week, he contributed to 62 strikes (goals and assists) in 112 games when at the club between 2014-17 and I really like these two additions. They know the club well, can slip almost seemlessly in, as Usami already has and will help convert some of the multi chances the team has been creating.
Vissel seem in a bit of a mess on and off the pitch, they have huge potential, ambition and funding (search any of my multiple previews), but nothing has worked and they look to have gone backwards rather than forwards, the additions of three more names including Thomas Vermaelen all sounds good, but Podolski (injured) , Iniesta and Villa have not overly helped and it is going to require more than simply throwing money at what are deep lying issues, we are already on a third head coach of the campaign, the third, Thorsten Fink has overseen two two goal losses so far and is probably already feeling the heat !
Miyamoto has just completed a year in charge (last week) he has collected 57 points from those games , enough for second place last season, his XP from those would be far higher, we spoke many times last season about how Gamba were unable to hold onto leads early in his tenure despite dominating and this is basically a Champions League team in 11th place, so huge room for growth. The same is obviously true of Vissel, but they have to turn that corner again first. Just 30km separate the two clubs, there will be huge Gamba support in the stadium and I expect them to go home with the spoils as they have on 4/5 JL1 visits.
It was all going so well for Gamba who led by two goals for almost 30 minutes and until we entered the 80th minute, but all credit to Vissel, he said through gritted teeth, that they never gave up, actually created a LOT of chances and whilst those numbers can sometimes be misleading when one team has a healthy lead and is sitting back , something we discussed this recently. However, 12 attempts on target and five big chances and great passing numbers against a team as comfortable with the ball as Gamba is eyecatching and we have done well with teams in the past who have posted good stats against "our" team, so maybe that was the "corner" Vissel needed to turn. Kobe also signed Noriaki Fujimoto from Oita this week, not sure if terms of that deal allow him to play today (I would be surprised if they did) , but he will anyway be a loss to the host, who do not score many goals at all, considering their league position ( six fewer than Vissel) and Fujimo has scored 8 and assisted for two more and he has contributed in 7 of their 9 wins and they have won just once since May without his aid.
Oita are doing well and sit in sixth place, but at the end of May I wrote ..............Oita have overperformed since promotion last season, they have had just 10 attempts on target in 5 league starts, they were in the third tier in 2016 and you would expect this meteoric rise to catch up with them at some stage and maybe we are now witnessing the start of that.
They have taken 9 points from 9 games since I wrote that (my maths is good so I can tell you that works out at 1 point per game !) , after averaging 2.0 from their first 12 outings, so there is a big drop off. 2 points per game is title form, just 1 is relegation level, table suggests they are 11 points and 9 places better than Kobe but I would not be surprised to see little between them come December 7th (Round 34).
Vissel led at half time, but the game finished 1-1 the Oita goal coming via a pair of real defensive howlers from Sergi Samper in the opening exchanges of the second half, overall they defended ok and Thomas Vermaelen made his debut, he felt quite comfortable and thought the backline gave few chances away, but will improve with further time together. Kobe added to defensive options again this week with Japan national team defender Gotoku Sakai signing from Hamburger SV on Tuesday. I think they will be fine and get to enjoy the final 12 rounds of the season. HC Thomas Fink felt it was a much "calmer" performance and that they only allowed one real chance to Oita and that from an individual error and he praised the contribution from Vermaelen. He also singled out keeper Hiroki Iikura who joined after some 300 games with Marinos saying that he suits the possession heavy style of the team and is a "modern goalkeeper".
They host Urawa whom we have discussed as having other targets for the season, namely Emperor's Cup and especially AFC Champions League, they cannot match Kobe's motivation for today, have no real league ambitions and I strongly favour the home win, with Vissel further boosted by a big midweek cup win and clean sheet (Fujimoto, see above, scored on his home debut).
Oita now host Kashima Antlers who I, and almost everyone else who follows J-L1, hold(s) in high regard and ahead of a trip to Sendai last month my notes included ..............
Vegalta have been in very good home form, picking up 19 of 22 points in Sendai, where they have won six times and collected some big scalps. But they are due a defeat here and no scalp comes bigger than that of Kashima Antlers ,who I have spoken of often as the best team in JL1 over recent years and who are building up a head of steam. They are 4th, 8 points behind FC Tokyo with a game in hand, but only two off second. We have been siding with them recently and the gist of all that was ......
I have spoken often over the last five years or so of Antlers being the best team in J-League, they have not won the title since 2016, but only failed to defend it on goal difference the following season and were third last year, also picked up an Emperor's Cup, Champions League and reaching the final of the World Club Cup in that three year stretch, making a big name for themselves on the international stage. All this success means that the early season, with AFC CL commitments and coming off a tight and very short pre season, is always a bit of a struggle.
They have looked more like the old Antlers since the international break, after appearing jaded running into it, February-June is always a period for them to get through, rather than thrive and it is only about matters domestic for the time being. They have won on 4/5 JL1 visits to Sendai , including 3-0 last season and have won 13 of 20 (65%) h2h meetings , all of which suggests value at these odds.
They won that 4-0 and have averaged 2 points per game in every start since writing those comments. They are now second, but still 7 points adrift of FC Tokyo who looked to be flagging, but have found a second wind. Antlers host FCT next month and will want to close the gap in the interim, over many seasons Kashima have developed a nice habit of winning , regadless of opponent , when they absolutely have to and this game feels like must win, given the gap at the top of the table.
2 units Vissel Kobe -0.25 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
2 units Kashima Antlers -0.5 ball 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
MLS:
Columbus Crew- Toronto FC
FC Cincinatti- New York City FC
I looked at two of these teams last weekend when Crew hosted FCC.............
I have spoken about some big issues with both teams this season and we have done fine opposing both, ahead of FCC's home game with a DC United team in a slump last month I wrote ..............
I spoke about FCC's own woes ahead of a recent trip to Minnesota and they were hammered there 7-1, but they have taken six points, scoring five goals in two subsequent starts, that is as many points as they have taken from their previous 15 starts and goals scored in six outings. The second of those was an away win at Chicago Fire, where they made some big changes and played very defensively, that is not their usual style, it worked, so I do not doubt we will see it again on the road, but we do not need to overly concern ourselves with that for today. In the home win (3-2 over Dynamo) Allan Cruz was the star and headline maker, featuring in all three goals and his pressing caused Houston huge issues in the first half, with the youngster working well with Frankie Amaya and Leonardo Bertone in the middle, that was the first time all season Cruz has played in his natural position and it gave hope for the future and something/someone that FCC can build around. However, once Amaya left the field with an injury, it forced FCC into a change and it was a different story, with Dynamo then having 6 of their 7 attempts on target. At that stage we once again saw the lack of pace in the home team, especially at the back and they have conceded 27 goals in 8 starts, 2+ in seven and their opponent missing two penalties in the game where they only conceded once ! Cruz needs help, at present it feels like that has to come from Amaya and he is a big doubt for tonight and anyway, I don't think that even with that help, that Cruz can run himself into the ground for 90 minutes and that vulnerability at the back remains.
They have lost all four subsequent games (conceding 10 goals), including at home to Whitecaps last time out, their only rival as "worst team in MLS" and all that makes pretty poor reading. As bad a run as Crew had been on, which has been well documented in these notes, they look to have turned a corner and are unbeaten in four, which includes draws at Fire, Earthquakes (very impressed by those two results) and a win at NYRB, picking up 8 points and scoring the same number of goals. Leonardo Bertone ( see above) is suspended for the visitors. 3-1.
I backed Crew and goals, it finished 2-2 so no damage done, but hugely frustrating as Columbus had more than twice the number of attempts inside the box, missed several big chances and hit the woodwork twice, but clearly they have not resolved those dedensive issues and it is easy to see their game with Toronto who have scored 39 goals (5th highest in the East), conceded 41 (4th most), developing into another shootout, these teams shared six goals here last season and a repeat, or similar, is certainly not out of the question.
FCC are the worst team in MLS, any doubts about that were removed in their last home game a 2-1 loss to Vancouver Whitecaps who were /are their only rival for that "honour". FCC will claim they were unlucky there and it is true and they might also take heart from that point in Columbus, but we have already discussed that and at the end of the day, the new MLS fanchise team have lost 17 starts (3 more than any one else) and conceded 57 goals (10 more than next worse) at the rate of 2.28 per game and needing to score three to win on average makes victories hard to come by. Today they host NYCFC who have been a bit up and down recently, but are amongst the MLS elite and ahead of their last home start, I wrote ...........
I see this very similar to NYCFC's last home game which was played at the end of last month and my notes for that are reproduced under the "good luck" sign off.
That finished 3-1 which was ideal, SKC ended the game with 10 men, but City were already two up at the time of the dismissal, however, the first goal took 42 minutes to arrive and the notes below in blue type are definitely worth rereading and highlight when the hosts tend to get their business done and doubtless they will again provide good value in running. Houston are probably better than the league table suggests, but are 2-0-8 on the road and arrive with striker Alberth Elis suspended, he has 7 goals and 7 assists in 17 apperances and Dynamo have lost 7/8 starts on the road that he has sat out in the last two seasons, but they did score in five, including three in the most recent and they have also scored on their last two trips to Yankee Stadium. City should be very focused on the points with back to back road games up next , including a daunting looking trip on quick turnaround to Atlanta in three day's time.
City in play is good, but we have doone ok with them plus BTS here in NY so let's stick with that.
That worked out perfectly with City coming from behind to win 3-2. They have played once subsequently losing 2-1 at Atlanta last weekend, but United are the strongest host in the East and a couple of levels above FCC. Anyway, that defeat will focus NYCFC who are in 4th place in the Easter Conference, 7 points off the top, but with 2-3 games in hand on all and with 3 of their next four starts aganst possible the three worst teams in the league, so a massive opportunity to close in on that #1 spot. They are averaging 1.1 points per game more than FCC in the second half of matches and should be able to take a firm grip on this at some stage, later, if not sooner.
2 units Crew-TFC "over" 3 goals 2.15 asian line/Sportmarket.
2 units New York City FC -0.5 ball 2.10 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
MLS: New York City FC-Sporting KC (written July 26th)
I was keen on SKC last weekend when they hosted FC Dallas, the visitors are poor on the road and Sporting's numbers were good and they looked they they might have turned a corner ...............
Night follows day, day follows night, the sun rises in the East and sets in the West and Sporting KC make the post season !
Since Peter Vermes took charge a decade ago SKC have ALWAYS been a contender and are looking for a 9th straight playoff season, they won the MLS Cup in 2013 and were the "Best in the West " last season. However, two games back they were last in the Western Conference, with just 4 wins from 18 starts and 7 points off post season pace. Back to back wins, at home to a decent Chicago Fire (1-0) and away to struggling Whitecaps (3-0........see next preview) have steadied the ship and taken them off the foot of the table and to within four points of top 6. I have been waiting for them to turn a corner as their numbers have been good. They are 3rd best team offensively , second best defensively in the West and in terms of expected goal difference and X points, second in both.
FCD are 7th on the same number of points as the team in 6th, so a big game for Sporting, with big playoff ramifications and one they will be busting a gut to win. Dallas are not a great road team, even by MLS standards, especially given the success they have achieved, they have lost 54/112 road starts , including 7/10 this season. The visitors have just sold DP Carlos Gruezo to Augsburg, he has played almost 100 MLS games in his three and a bit seasons in Dallas, he has missed 21 (just 4 wins) , but it is on the road his contribution will be hardest felt, in his absence, that poor away form switches to dire and they are 0-2-9 with a 5-23 goal difference. SKC have lost just 1/10 h2h games as host, scoring 2.6 goals pg, sole win here in that sequence came last season in a 3-2 win, thanks mainly to a hat-trick from Micheal Barrios, he has not scored since March and with him out of form and goals in short supply for FCD ( 15 in 13 ...........in a very high scoring league ), plus Gruezo now gone, it has to be SKC.
All the advantages with SKC and they had a lot of possession and attempts on goal, but it was all a bit toothless, only one on target and they ran out of ideas after falling behind on a very hot and humid day in KC and lost 2-0. Now they travel East to play NYCFC who got back to winning ways themselves with a road win at fast improving Colorado Rapids last week, that game turned in City's favour after the hosts were reduced to ten men, but it is still a noteworthy win and the home team will want to bounce back after losing their last start in the Big Apple, a 1-0 defeat to Portland Timbers. That is rare, over the last three seasons they are 35-14-6 at Yankee stadium and I have spoken often about the unique dimensions of this baseball field giving them an advantage and the small pitch should not help the possession base game of SKC . The visitors are without top scorer Felipe Gutierrez who is suspended, he is ever present this year, but did miss an away game in Panana in the CL ( lost 2-1) and played just 30 minutes in a 1-1 draw at Cincinnati in MLS play, so they can still score in his absence. Roger Espinoza will probably step in, but the veteran has played just 25 minutes since April and is just returning from injury and 45 minutes is the best they can hope for from him.
Across those 35 home wins already discussed, City have conceded in 20, so "true" odds for the home win are 63.64% (odds 1.57) and to win with a clean sheet 27.27 % (3.67) and with both teams scoring 36.36 % (2.75). But we also know that within those numbers that NYCFC are a little worse defensively and rode their luck in home games last season, something we discussed many times and whilst that would have not stopped them winning, there are more games in which they should have conceded. This season they look the best team in MLS defensively and have allowed the fewest attempts on target, but again they should have conceded an extra 7 goals, having sad that, it still leaves them #1 ranked for XG against. So, value has to be ...........
1.75 units New York City to win and both teams score @ 3.0-3.10 general quote.
NYCFC have a +8 home goal difference, but it is all after the break. they are +/- zero in the first half (when they have conceded 6), but a fine 10-2 (scored-conceded) in the second 45 minutes. The only team to score a second half goal here since March were trailing by three at the time (the other was the best team in MLS at present in LAFC).
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