France: Ligue 1 stats................big chances and ITB

Oct 23, 2020

France: Ligue 1:

ITB numbers through 7 rounds.

Lille 49-45

PSG 87-28

Rennes 57-44

Nice 41-68

Lens 61-29

Marseille 40-65

Montpellier 54-59

Monaco 72-39

Lyon 88-32

St Etienne 39-57

Angers 51-53

Bordeaux 42-42

Brest 61-58

Metz 41-42

Nantes 44-62

Nîmes 46-66

Lorient 33-50

Strasbourg 56-44

Reims 31-65

Dijon 32-77

League table order, all teams have played 7 games.

What we are really looking for is teams who are over/ underperforming in relation to results and especially, those who have had sudden improvement or tailing off numbers wise. So through the season we will mostly be interested in the last 4-6 games, but 7 into a new campaign feels about the perfect place to start.

Eight teams are on positive numbers which is about right and the top 8 after 38 rounds should all be + or very close to it, so anyone in the top half of the table with net negative numbers should be treated with caution and those in the bottom half with + ITB figures are likely to come good at some stage, but this is early days and, as I always end this part by saying, these stats are only ever a starting point for our analysis.

Lille lead on 17 points, they have created 49 attempts inside the box, given up 45, putting them on +4 which is low for what they have achieved, but they have some sensational BC numbers across their last five games and look a very good team, that is my stating the obvious comment of the day, which I will get out of the way early !

PSG are the best team for ITB and BC, who knew ? As poor as they looked against Manchester United the other night and the body language and "appetite" of a couple of "names" was awful, the rest of Ligue 1 are only playing for second place. However, what I will say is that despite being a net +19 for BC's (32-12), they have conceded 2+ in four of the six games in which they have faced 11 men and right now, they can be got at defensively.

The Lens and Lyon figures are very good indeed and they are also ranked #2 and #3 respectively for BC's. RCL slipped up last time out, but had two men sent off, prior to that they were a net +4, +4, +3. +5, +1, +4 BC for their first six games, , given up just 2 total and those are sensational numbers . Lyon are building up a head of steam and have had 6 BC's in each of their last two starts.

St Etienne are toiling after winning their first three games and their ITB and BC (1-11 for last three) stats have gone from bad to worse and you need good reason to back them right now, but maybe you have one !

We have some other things of note, one Ligue 1 team who is averaging 0.5 big chances per game across their last six starts, which makes it difficult to win ! A "top" team who have created zero or just a single BC in 5 of their last 6 starts, another who has given up as many BC's in their last three games as 13 teams have all season, but I have to save something for the game previews !

Glossary:

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

Good luck !