Last season's final table....

 

2022				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Palmeiras	38	23	12	3	66	27	+39	81	LWXW	19	13	4	2	39	12	19	10	8	1	27	15
	2		Internacional	38	20	13	5	58	31	+27	73	WWWL	19	13	5	1	40	14	19	7	8	4	18	17
	3		Fluminense	38	21	7	10	63	41	+22	70	WWWW	19	12	3	4	39	20	19	9	4	6	24	21
	4		Corinthians	38	18	11	9	44	36	+8	65	LXWW	19	12	4	3	24	11	19	6	7	6	20	25
	5		Flamengo	38	18	8	12	60	39	+21	62	LXLL	19	11	3	5	37	15	19	7	5	7	23	24
	6		Athlético-PR	38	16	10	12	48	48	+0	58	WXLW	19	11	6	2	31	17	19	5	4	10	17	31
	7		Atlético-MG	38	15	13	10	45	37	+8	58	WWLX	19	8	5	6	25	18	19	7	8	4	20	19
	8		Fortaleza	38	15	10	13	46	39	+7	55	WWXL	19	7	8	4	24	13	19	8	2	9	22	26
	9		São Paulo	38	13	15	10	55	42	+13	54	WLLX	19	8	6	5	32	21	19	5	9	5	23	21
	10		América-MG	38	15	8	15	40	40	+0	53	XLWW	19	9	4	6	22	18	19	6	4	9	18	22
	11		Botafogo	38	15	8	15	41	43	-2	53	LWWL	19	6	4	9	18	19	19	9	4	6	23	24
	12		Santos	38	12	11	15	44	41	+3	47	LLXW	19	8	5	6	28	19	19	4	6	9	16	22
	13		Goiás	38	11	13	14	40	53	-13	46	LLWL	19	6	8	5	20	22	19	5	5	9	20	31
	14		Red Bull Bragantino	38	11	11	16	49	59	-10	44	LLLW	19	8	5	6	29	23	19	3	6	10	20	36
	15		Coritiba	38	12	6	20	39	60	-21	42	LXWW	19	11	4	4	25	16	19	1	2	16	14	44
	16		Cuiabá	38	10	11	17	31	42	-11	41	WLXW	19	6	8	5	17	15	19	4	3	12	14	27
	17		Ceará	38	7	16	15	34	41	-7	37	WLLL	19	4	8	7	20	22	19	3	8	8	14	19
	18		Atlético-GO	38	8	12	18	39	57	-18	36	XXXL	19	6	5	8	22	23	19	2	7	10	17	34
	19		Avaí	38	9	8	21	34	60	-26	35	WWXL	19	7	4	8	24	26	19	2	4	13	10	34
	20		Juventude	38	3	13	22	29	69	-40	22	LXLL	19	2	9	8	18	27	19	1	4	14	11	42

Last season's four promoted teams from Serie B.......

 

2022				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Cruzeiro	38	23	9	6	57	26	+31	78	WWLL	19	15	3	1	32	8	19	8	6	5	25	18
	2		Grêmio	38	17	14	7	50	26	+24	65	WXWX	19	14	3	2	37	10	19	3	11	5	13	16
	3		Vasco da Gama	38	18	10	10	50	35	+15	64	WLWW	19	12	6	1	32	10	19	6	4	9	18	25
	4		Bahia	38	17	11	10	43	29	+14	62	WXXX	19	12	5	2	29	11	19	5	6	8	14	18
	5		Sampaio Corrêa	38	16	10	12	48	42	+6	58	WWLW	19	14	4	1	37	15	19	2	6	11	11	27

 

These must be the four biggest clubs to have come up from Serie B at the same time in history, Cruzeiro won back to back Serie A titles in 2013-14 and did the same in the Copa do Brasil in 2017-18 and they, Gremio and Vasco have six Copa Libertadores wins between them and another four runner up medals. Bahia are less illustrious, but do have two Serie A titles in their history and spent five straight seasons in the top flight prior to their relegation in 2021, they bounced back at the first attempt, as did Gremio. Cruzeiro won with 78 points (most since 2013) and by a 13 point margin (most since 2011) , with the top 4 comfortably clear of the pack. The quartet have all made solid starts and will help make this a very competitive 2023 season.

 

Just as we did with J-League 1, we can look at the teams who over or underachieved in relation to xP and xGD last season. Those who played significantly better than their points tally were ........

 

Flamengo.......should have had an additional 12 points and scored 18 more goals.

Bragantino...........an extra 14 points and 10 goals scored.

Atletico -MG ..... an additional 21 points and 23 goals.

 

These all make sense as Bragantino were in just their 3rd season in the top flight and were dealing with a debut Copa Libertadores campaign after 53 points in 2020 and 56 for 6th place in 2021, so putting them on 58 instead of 44 is easily explained.

 

Similarly so with Flamengo, who were 2nd with 71 points in 2021 and champions in both 2020 and 2019, with a whopping 91 points in the latter. CAM were champions with 84 points in 2021.

 

We should definitely be looking for the trio to step up in 2023.

 

Overachievers that stayed up were not in such plentiful supply at least by such wide margins, apart from one and that that was Goias who were an absolutely massive 28 points above where they should have been (20th) , xGA also saw them giving up an additional 24 goals ,a  league high 77. They were promoted in 2021 and fortunate to survive.

 

Other standout numbers came with Internacional, as their xGA saw them give up 57 and not 31 goals and Cuiaba, who should have scored 19 more, conceding an extra 21, which is a 40 goal shortfall in their fixtures, more than a goal per game.

 

Four games into the new season the table looks like this 

 

2023				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Botafogo	4	4	0	0	9	4	+5	12	WWWW	2	2	0	0	4	1	2	2	0	0	5	3
	2		Palmeiras	4	3	1	0	11	4	+7	10	WWXW	2	2	0	0	4	2	2	1	1	0	7	2
	3		Cruzeiro	4	3	0	1	7	3	+4	9	WWWL	2	2	0	0	3	1	2	1	0	1	4	2
	4		Fortaleza	4	2	2	0	9	4	+5	8	XWWX	2	1	1	0	5	3	2	1	1	0	4	1
	5		São Paulo	4	2	1	1	7	3	+4	7	WXWL	2	2	0	0	5	0	2	0	1	1	2	3
	6		Fluminense	4	2	1	1	8	5	+3	7	XLWW	2	1	1	0	3	1	2	1	0	1	5	4
	7		Grêmio	4	2	1	1	6	5	+1	7	XWLW	2	1	1	0	4	3	2	1	0	1	2	2
	8		Internacional	4	2	1	1	4	4	+0	7	LWWX	2	2	0	0	3	1	2	0	1	1	1	3
	9		Bahia	4	2	0	2	6	5	+1	6	WWLL	2	1	0	1	4	3	2	1	0	1	2	2
	10		Athlético-PR	4	2	0	2	5	5	+0	6	WLLW	2	2	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	2	1	4
	11		Vasco da Gama	4	1	2	1	5	5	+0	5	XLXW	2	0	1	1	2	3	2	1	1	0	3	2
	12		Red Bull Bragantino	4	1	2	1	6	8	-2	5	XLXW	2	1	0	1	2	4	2	0	2	0	4	4
	13		Cuiabá	4	1	1	2	5	6	-1	4	WLXL	2	0	1	1	2	3	2	1	0	1	3	3
	14		Santos	4	1	1	2	4	5	-1	4	LWOL	2	1	1	0	3	2	2	0	0	2	1	3
	15		Corinthians	4	1	1	2	5	7	-2	4	XLLW	2	1	1	0	3	2	2	0	0	2	2	5
	16		Atlético-MG	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4	LWOL	2	1	0	1	3	3	2	0	1	1	0	2
	17		Flamengo	4	1	0	3	7	7	+0	3	LLLW	2	1	0	1	5	3	2	0	0	2	2	4
	18		Goiás	4	1	0	3	3	9	-6	3	LLWL	2	1	0	1	3	6	2	0	0	2	0	3
	19		Coritiba	4	0	1	3	2	10	-8	1	LXLL	2	0	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	2	1	6
	20		América-MG	4	0	0	4	3	11	-8	0	LLLL	2	0	0	2	1	5	2	0	0	2	2	6

  

XGD, BC's and ITB attempts like this......

 

Botafogo 4.4-7.0 , 8-11, 31-44

Palmeiras 7.4-5.1, 10-5, 35-23

Cruzeiro 6.0-6.1, 8-7, 31-24

Fortaleza 9.1-6.9, 13-5, 46-29

São Paulo 6.4-6.7, 10-8, 35-39

Fluminense 8.4-7.0, 10-13, 32-33

Internacional 6.7-6.1, 3-7, 34-37

Bahia 5.1-5.6, 6-4, 30-19

Atlético-PR 3.8-7.0, 6-6, 21-28

Vasco 4.0-8.9, 5-5, 23-36

Bragantino 6.6-5.4, 13-7, 31-29

Cuiabá 6.4-6.1, 6-11, 26-32

Santos 5.2-6.8, 6-9, 33-25

Corinthians 5.2 -6.6, 5-7, 25-29

Atlético-MG 7.3-4.9, 9-6, 34-29

Flamengo  9.7- 5.6, 14-6, 44-30

Goiás 6.5-6.0, 5-6, 34-35

Coritiba 5.3-7.7, 2-8, 27-41

América -MG 8.2-6.6, 9-13, 41-32