Norwich 28/ 25 136-109 26-22

Bournemouth 27/ 24 108-92 23-16

Swansea 26 / 27 118-85 21-11 

Reading 26 /18  83-78 23-19

Bristol C 24/ 18 94-116 18-22

Brentford 23/ 32 113-78 32-12 

Stoke 22 /23 101-92 18-16

Middlesbrough 21 /20 99-80 27-14

Millwall 20/18 101-91 19-13

Cardiff 17/ 27 125-75 20-22

QPR 17/18 106-111 25-28 

Barnsley 16/17 94-97 21-28

Birmingham 16/17 110-111 20-17

Preston 16/19 87-105 21-28

Rotherham 13/13 96-108 18-34

Coventry 13/8 84-116 19-33

Nottm. Forest 12/21 107-91 26-24

Wycombe 10/12 87-144 14-28

*Sheff.Weds 8/9  73-106 11-20

Derby  7/8 91-112 11-25

 

14 rounds played.

 

Teams are in league table order, there are four sets of numbers alongside each team, the first is their actual points total, followed by their xP in blue type, ITB numbers created and conceded follow in dark type, followed by BC's for and against in red.

 

For example, leaders Norwich have 28 points, but should have 25, they have created 136 attempts from ITB, giving up 109, with 26 BC's , whilst conceding 22.

 

*Sheffield Wednesday started with a 12 point deduction (now reduced to six) , so their xP of 9 , is actually 15 (15-6 =9).

 

 

Brentford 32 / Cardiff 27/ Swansea 27.

 

 

Cardiff +50/ Brentford +35/ Swansea +33.

 

 

Brentford +20/ Blackburn +17/ Middlesbrough +13.

 

Luton Town and Bristol City are the only teams in the top half of the table with negative numbers and they are minus in both categories. We have been here before with City, their fall from grace eventually came last season with a poor finish to their campaign and all too easy to see it happening again.

 

Forest are the only team in the bottom half of the table with double positive numbers which is a little crazy, as all last season they had bottom six stats and were top 6, now they have top half figures and have only three teams below them in the table ! XP places them 8th too and they are clearly better than the league table indicates. Cardiff City are #2 for xP and #1 for ITB and given their Championship record and how they finished last season, the Bluebirds seem almost certain to put in a promotion charge at some stage. With regard to the former, in the last decade they have played 8 seasons in the second tier, never finished lower than 12th and been top six on five occasions, promoted twice.

 

I have also looked in a little more depth at each team's numbers across the last three games, my reasoning is that they are post the most recent international break, given coaches additional time with players and to study both their own stats/performances and those of the opposition, meaning there should be fewer unknown quantities and more to work with . Also, the return to five subs is a big (IMO) benefit to those teams with more depth in the squad and who are better coached, hugely increasing options to change things around during games.

 

A few words about all six games being played this evening .................

 

 

This is interesting, a lot of quality in the home side, but some of their numbers give cause for concern and they have only created 15 attempts ITB in their last three starts, they took 7 points from those games, but really rode their luck at times and trailed in two. They have given up 10 BC's in their last 5 starts , after allowing only six in their opening 9 games.

 

Preston have collected 13 of their 16 points on the road and for some reason (they won 12 games as host last season) they have been awful at Deepdale, losing 6/7, but that need not overly concern us today. It is a shame that North End were so woeful at Watford over the weekend as I would loved to have sided with them today, but it is hard to get that performance out of my mind and the Hornets/ Bournemouth back to back , with a quick turnaround and two very long trips (Preston to the South Coast is 5 hours on the road........if you are lucky !) is tough. I will have to pass, but just take a little care with the Cherries for the time being, who also made a very long trip to Rotherham and back over the weekend.

 

 

 

 

Good luck !