EFL Championship 23/24 .......an early look.
Jun 20, 2023
Looking at the last 33 clubs relegated to the Championship, 2 were relegated a second successive season, 10 were promoted at the first attempt (5 as champions) and almost half (16) finished top 6 , 8 were placed between 7th and 12th and 7 between 13th and 18th.
That gives them a 72.73% chance to finish top half, 27.27% for bottom half and 48.48% for top 6, with 15.15 % as champions.
Of the last 21 Championship winners, seven were relegated teams, four had finished bottom half the previous season and ten had placed between 3rd- 10th (8 between 3rd-7th).
Of the last 33 teams promoted to the Championship, 10 were relegated, 8 finished top half, but only two made the playoff spots , with 15 placed between 13th and 21st. The three coming up this season are Plymouth Argyle, Ipswich Town and Sheffield Wednesday, each collected between 96-101 points ( 2.09-2.20 per game), so could be termed "elite" and two have fairly recent experience of the higher level .However, we can see from the numbers just how tough it is to step up to the Championship and get into the promotion picture. Having said that, the average finishing position for teams promoted with 94+ points is 11.7.
Here is a biggie, eight of the last ten (including the last six) automatically promoted teams were receiving EPL parachute payments and that is no surprise, it creates an unfair or unlevel playing field in the Championship similar to that which exists in the top flight between the "Big 6 " and the other 14 clubs.
Relegated clubs receive 55% of the equal share of broadcast revenue paid to Premier League clubs in the first year after relegation, 45% the following year and 20% in year three. These payments stop if the club is promoted before the third year.
It equates to a big drop off in income for Southampton, Leeds United and Leicester City, but parachute payments of £45m, £36m, £16m in addition to the EFL central distribution (£3.6m) will see them as the Daddy Warbucks of the Championship revenue wise, as clubs not receiving PP's will have a basic £8.4m.
Relegated clubs lose out on far more than broadcasting rights and the loss for any team who falls out of the top flight is huge and hard felt, but they are still at a substantial advantage over the bulk of the other Championship clubs by virtue of their parachute income and best chance to get back up is at the first or second time of asking. Two of the clubs who have never received a parachute payment (Luton Town and Coventry City) actually met in the playoff final last season and the Hatters will be playing top flight football in 23/24, but the progress made by those two clubs in the last decade is close to miraculous and feels like the exception which proves the rule! Owners of the "have not" clubs have spoken of the financial disparity in the Championship many times, a relegated club has a circa £50m advantage in Y1 and that allows some to pay salaries of £60-70m whilst others are trying to get a squad together on 10% of that.
We will have a closer look at who we like for the Championship next month, but for now, just in relation to the above numbers, if we take them on merit, the odds should be ..............
Relegated clubs:
Leeds United : odds to finish bottom half 3.67, top half 1.37, top six 2.06, to be relegated 16.5.
Leicester City: odds to finish bottom half 3.67, top half 1.37, top six 2.06, to be relegated 16.5.
Southampton: odds to finish bottom half 3.67, top half 1.37, top six 2.06, to be relegated 16.5.
"Elite" promoted clubs "should" finish top 12 (11.7) :
But odds for all promoted teams to finish bottom half are 1.32/ top half 4.12
Markets are still being formed but early odds say.....
Sheffield Wednesday : top half 2.0 , bottom half 1.73
Ipswich Town : top half 1.53, bottom half 2.375
Plymouth Argyle: top half 5.0 , bottom half 1.14
Definitely worth coming back to one or two of this trio and these markets in general and we almost certainly will!
I am currently writing an article on five of the head coaches from League 1 last season, which includes two of the promoted clubs and will send that to subscribers in the next week or so and we are slowly starting to build a Championship and League 1 picture for next season.
Non promoted clubs finishing 3rd-10th
Odds are 2.10 for one of Middlesbrough/Coventry/
Good luck!
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