Copa del Rey: Las Palmas- Valencia
I previewed last week's first leg which ended 1-1 and those notes are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. LP put a little too much effort in that for my liking and paid the price with a 3-2 defeat at Levante on Monday, a result which has left them in the bottom three and desperate for a result at home to Celta Vigo on Sunday, with trips to Sevilla, Eibar and Villarreal and a visit from Barcelona in the next five weeks. Surley this time they have to take the sensible approach and play with the weekend fixture firmly in mind.
Valencia are on an unbeaten run of four games, but need to win or score twice to turn this tie around, they will take heart from the fact that LP are now without a cleansheet in ten and have conceded two or more goals in five of their last seven starts. The visitors are very focused on the competition and are boosted by the return of Antonio Barragán, Enzo Pérez and Feghouli with the trio missing recent starts and that will increase options for the head coach. He will be without the services of top scorer Paco Alcacer, but his squad is otherwise fairly close to full strength and Gary Neville (see below and pictured) believes that the group are as strong as at any time since he took charge and has said in build up that there can be no excuses and the (clearly) better visiting squad should be up to winning this. Hosts have lost defensive midfielder Vicente Gomez for what might be the rest of the season, LP are 6-2-2 at home in league and cup when he plays this season, 0-1-2 in his absence and with Los Che stronger now in midfield, he will be missed. Las Palmas created little in the first leg, just two attempts on goal and I strongly favour Valencia to do enough to progress and they will get chances against the porous home side and the 24 hours extra recovery time that Valencia have enjoyed in build up is not insignificant given that this will be the 9th start inside 30 days for both teams.
1.75 units Valencia -0.25 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Copa del Rey: Valencia - Las Palmas (written 21/01)
I see this match similar to the
Valencia-Granada Copa game which was played two weeks ago and ahead of which I wrote .........
Gary Neville is still looking for his first win since taking charge of Valencia and with a 13 point gap now to the top four in La Liga, we can expect him and his team to be very focused on going deep in the Copa del Rey to extend interest in their season for as long as possible and to give the English coach every opportunity to prove himself, after claiming this week he would like the job on a permanent basis. Los Che remain unbeaten at the Mestalla and are coming off a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid at the weekend, they will welcome the "easier" opposition, after a tough New Year campaign which also saw them play the derby game away to Villarreal last week. Nevillle has rotated his squad and left out the accident prone Abdennour, top scorer Alcacer, along with Cancelo, Gomes and Barbosa. Neville felt that the second half against Viila was the best 45 minutes his team had put together in his brief time in charge and that against Real it was the best 90 minute spell, but as he said in interview yesterday, that has now be translated into results. He explained the rotation by saying he wanted to get his 22 man squad up to full match fitness as soon as possible, but added that he was 100% committed to the competition and knew how important it was to everyone connected with the club and he held a "public" meeting with owner Peter Lim this week, who had flown in from Singapore and you would assume that having the boss in town would further increase motivation.
Granada are buoyed by their 2-1 win over Sevilla on Sunday,but they really rode their luck their at times, especially early in both halves and I think that back to back games against such strong opponents are a big ask with the very quick turnaround and for them, the additional issue of travel )they also played at Las Palmas last midweek) and with the early kick off , they would have had to make this journey yesterday. They have also left out four from the weekend squad, including both starting right sided midfielders. Survival has to be the priority for Granada and you would think it would be all about La Liga for them, however, they go to Barcelona on Saturday and might feel they have little chance there anyway and want to give this their best shot, but that could be very dangerous, especially if it back fired , they lost this anyway and left little in the tank for the weekend and the return with Valencia is next midweek, this is the third of seven games inside 26 days for the visitors and I would argue that this is the least important of all for Granada and I expect a reasonably comfortable win for the hosts. Valencia are 8-1-0 h2h2 in the series since Granada returned to the top flight, they are a perfect 5/5 at Mestalla, where they have also kept four clean sheets.
Valencia won that 4-0 and the return leg 3-0, but took just a single point from two La Liga games played either side of that and now their focus for this season has to be pretty much just this competition and the Europa League ,and to manage the league games as well as possible, with a huge 16 point gap to the Champions League places and ten teams above them in the table. Gary Neville ( see above) has named another strong squad tonight, with limited rotation from the weekend league game and only in areas where his team are strong.
Valencia remain unbeaten at home, but have drawn far too many matches, including the league meeting with Las Palmas, which ended 1-1, the hosts led for almost an hour, before the visitors got a deserved equaliser via Jonathan Viera and were the stronger team if anything, being denied a winner by the woodwork and some poor finishing.
Las Palmas progressed through the last round cortesy of two 3-2 wins over Eibar and ahead of the first, my notes included .......
Las Palmas were kind enough to lose the first half at Bilbao on Sunday, but battled back for a share of the points and actually took four from their two New Year fixtures, scoring six goals in the process, that took them two clear of the relegation spots and added 50% to their goal tally for the season. Ahead of the last game I wrote ..........
Both teams have some suspension/injury issues, but Bilbao have good alternatives and Las Palmas are going to struggle , especially as they put a lot of effort and targeted the three points in their home game with Granada last midweek, they are likely to do similar with next week's home game with Malaga far more win-able. Bilbao are building up a head of steam and are fast starters, leading at the break in 5 of 8 wins ( 3 of 5 at home), LP have conceded a whopping ten goals in the opening 30 minutes on the road ( which is 1.25 per match), where they have already lost six times and there is surely a good chance for Athletic to get their noses in front early against a tired opponent.
I did think that LP might have stayed in the region after that game (Eibar is only50km from Bilbao), but they made the long flight home and flew back into Bilbao yesterday afternoon, given that it was the "holiday" yesterday, I suspect the players were given some time with their family this week and I doubt that they have done much apart from that and flying to and from the Basque region. That is at least ten hours in the air already, add in transit times and it is quite a drain on already tired limbs. LP surely have to have survival as their number one, two and three priority, after taking 28 years to return to the top flight and IMO, they could do without further involvement in a competition they cannot win. They play three home league games this month and they give them a real opportunity to open up some daylight over the bottom three and that should be their focus. They have traveled with a "strong" squad in terms of who is available, but have left Tana and Viera who scored three of last week's six goals at home, I guess with the visit from Malaga firmly in mind. I suspect that options are limited beyond was is availble to start right now and they made their three substitutions very late at San Mames, which indicates as much and at least two of those were just to waste a little injury time.
As outlined there, this has been a gruelling start to 2016 for LP who have survival as their sole priority and a limited squad in terms of real quality and depth. The away leg win over Eibar turned on the first of two red cards awarded against the hosts and in the league, LP are 0-3-6 on the road. Head coach Quique Setien was very honest about the games this week and said we came here to win, but that the real game for us is on Monday against Levante, his team have travelled without top scorer Viera ( see above) and Antolin Alcaraz, Setien also said that two other defenders remained sidelined along with several others, but declined to name them or his squad for the game and would give no further indication as to his line up.
However, it is clear that the most important game that Valencia will play this week is today and for Las Palmas, it will be in this city, but on Monday.
Valencia have scored two or more goals in their last five home starts, LP are without a clean sheet in eight and their last six starts have produced 24 goals.
