Copa America ..... and the bigger picture ............
Jun 29, 2021
You got to see both of yesterday's Euro previews, still not sure how Spain dd not win that opening 45 minutes ! You can also see the Monday Copa America notes below, they played out well with Argentina winning 4-1 and Uruguay 1-0, but the reason for reproducing them this morning is not to tell you how clever I am, we already know that, but to give you a look at some more content and see how we can use all avialble information to our advanatge, in this case, what teams were looking for from certain games and how some approach tournament play, always with one eye on the bigger picture .
Copa America:
Bolivia- Argentina
Uruguay- Paraguay
Group B is now finished .............
1. Brazil
2. Peru
3. Colombia
4. Ecuador
5. Venezuela ...........eliminated
Group A is currently
Argentina 7 points
Paraguay 6
Chile 5 ...........played all group stage games.
Uruguay 4
Bolivia 0 ................eliminated
Argentina will finish first with a win over the weakest team in the competition , who have nothing to play for. That will set up a quarterfinal with Ecuador and put them on the opposite side of the draw to Brazil.
Paraguay will finish 2nd with a point or better, 3rd with a defeat.
Uruguay can finish 4th (with a loss) , 3rd (draw), 2nd (win).
I spoke very early in the competition about Uruguay and head coach Oscar Taberez and how they would approach things ......... the format will suit the wily head coach who will be working out exactly where he wants his team to finish in the group stage.
We are there now and the choice is 4th , which means a quarter final with Brazil and is no option at all, 3rd meaning Peru and then Brazil, 2nd sets up Colombia and then Argentina.
Most football fans think of Colombia as the bigger/ better footballing nation, but Peru knocked Uruguay out of the last Copa in the quarters and Uruguay beat the Colombians 3-0 in Barranquilla in November and that game also gives them an extra day's rest and means they could not play Brazil until the final.
I think that is the better option , it gives the best possible chance to win the competition and a victory today also gets the team into knockout stage mode. Pre tournament my full Uruguay notes read .............
So I have to look elsewhere and I am going back to the 2019 event when I wrote ...............
Next team I would like to discuss is Uruguay, they finished second only to Brazil in World Cup qualifying and won their group in Russia with a perfect 3 wins, without conceding, they then knocked out Portugal, before losing to France in the last 8 , where they were missing Edinson Cavani. He and Luis Suarez have an incredible 102 international goals between them, 10 and 20 respectively more than Diego Forlan who is #3 on the all time Uruguay goal scorer list. They have great experience and continuity in the organisation with head coach Oscar Tabarez ( El Maestro ) in charge since 2006 and with a contract which runs until the next World Cup (2022), this will be his 6th Copa America as head coach. There are four squad members with 100+ caps, a wildly experienced backline with Atletico Madrid pairing Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez and the duo along with Martin Caceres have 266 caps amongst them. The midfield has much more youth, but plenty of talent also with Rodrigo Bentancur (21 yo Juventus) , Nahitan Nandez (23 Boca Juniors) , Giorgian de Arrascaeta ( 25 Flamengo), Lucas Torreira ( 23 Arsenal), Federico Valverde ( 20 Real Madrid) and Gaston Pereiro ( 23 PSV), oh and 22yo Celta forward Maxi Gomez giving the two strikers competition. It is a strong squad and they have to go well. Chile have won the last two Copa's but no one has a better record than Uruguay in the competition and since 1983 they are .............1-1-2-G-QF-1-G-2-
Uruguay won their group (it was a very different format) , Peru were third in Brazil's section and unfortunately, the two met in the quarter finals, which was decided on penalties and won by Peru , they then beat Chile 3-0 in Porto Alegre, before coming up short in the final against the hosts. They outplayed Uruguay and Chile and do seem to peak for the big tournaments and especially recent Copa's under head coach Ricardo Gareca. They have no stars and top scorer Paulo Guerrero is about 100 years old and crocked . But they are well suited to this format and being able to grow into a tournament as we saw two years ago and the squad is still together and know they can put in a decent run. They looked well off the pace in WC qualifying, but found a performance and win away to Ecuador this midweek and that was the ideal way to go into this event and a timely boost.
Uruguay are still coached by Oscar Tabarez who is 74 yo and in his 16th year in charge, he is being caught up age wise by Cavani and Suarez ( see above) , but the two veteran strikers are coming off great seasons with Manchester United and Atletico Madrid respectively and have 114 international goals between them. The trio, plus Diego Godin and Martin Caceres know this is their last opportunity to win a major event and you can be certain that the format will suit the wily head coach who will be working out exactly where he wants his team to finish in the group stage. The last two times that Cavani and Suarez played together we saw Uruguay at their best, in a 2-2 draw away to Argentina and 3-0 win away to Columbia. I think the format will allow Tabarez to nurse his star veteran players through the competition and his very talented youngsters like Jose Gimenez/ Ronald Araujo/ Lucas Torreira/ Federica Valverde/ Rodrigo Bentancur are only getting better, all are well regarded , aged between 22-26 , play for massive European teams and four were at the last Copa, three at the World Cup and all will come on for the experience. It feels time for the youngsters to step up and also the final opportunity for the superstars . I expect Uruguay to go very well.
Uruguay are unbeaten in five h2h Copa meetings (3 wins) and have lost just once to Paraguay since 2003 ( 11 games).
Argentina should win with the minimum of fuss and it is a chance for them to throw the shackles off and I feel they should take it, as they too often seem content to do the absolute minimum to win games.
Ahead of Bolivia's opener with Paraguay I wrote ...............
Bolivia will be pretty pleased with their last two results, we have already touched upon that fortunate point in Chile and last week they beat Venezuela 3-1 in La Paz ahead of which I noted ............
Bolivia have just a single point on board and will be pretty much out of things unless they win today, their last 5 games have seen both teams score and their last 10 starts have averaged 3.9 goals, which is huge in international terms. They have played two friendly games since the last qualifier, which gives them more recent playing experience than anyone else playing this round.
Venezuela arrive with 3 points and have not played since November. They are a baseball playing nation where football takes second place and has traditionally been of little importance, but in recent years it has grown and we have seen some improvement from the national team. They have bossed Bolivia in recent meetings winning the last three and scoring 12 goals and the last six h2h games have all produced 4+ goals at a 4.83 average. The hosts will throw the kitchen sink at Venezuela and I have to see another high scoring encounter.
Their last seven starts have now seen both teams score and that includes a 2-2 draw away to Paraguay in Asuncion last November where again, Bolivia rode their luck, but they do have a goal or two in them and whilst not many teams need to win their opener here in Copa, Bolivia, who finish with games against Uruguay and Argentina, and probably see today as their best chance, might be one and willing to take chances and anyway, they seem incapable of keeping a clean sheet and one goal should see this really open up.
Eight in a row with BTS (including a 2-1 loss to Argentina in La Paz) before being scoreless in their last two Copa starts, but a different mindset today, nothing to lose and they might as well look to enjoy the contest.
1.25 units Argentina to win and both teams to score 3.30 + .............3.50 Pinnacle.
2 units Uruguay -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line.
Good luck !
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