That optimism seems a little misguided presently, but in their spectacular 2014, they actually had four points fewer at this stage and they know what they are capable of once their find their form, they are one convincing win away from refinding their self belief, it is hard to see them edging home against anyone right now, the goals are either going to come or not and if they win today, I expect to be comfortably or not at all. Jubilo are short handed offensively, we have spoken a lot about how important Jay Bothroyd is and his injury along with limited options meant that they played without a striker last week, their limitation were cruelly exposed by Vissel Kobe in their last away start, where they conceded four and Gamba could have similar joy.

 

1.5 units Gamba Osaka -0.75 ball 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Italian Open Tennis : WTA

 

Serena Williams -Svetlana Kuznetsova

 

If these two were at their absolute peak career wise on clay, I do not think there would be much in this, Williams a small favourite maybe , OK Serena has three French open titles and Svetlana only one, but few would disagree with this being Williams the younger "worst" surface and only Justine Henin at her very best stopped the Russian winning in 2006 and Kuznetsova took the queen of Roland Garros as close as anyone ever did in Paris in that final. Anyway, the Russian can be unplayable at times and whilst we see that all too rarely, she is hugely underrated and has been all career and whilst at 30 yo (31 next month) she is not going to win a third slam ( she also has a US Open title to her name), she has four years in hand of Serena and if she is going to go deep once more, it is most likely to be at Roland Garros and on clay. We spoke about Serena's build up to the summer season ahead of her second round match ..........

I have to try a little on Anna-Lena Friedsam with the six game handicap start.  The pair have met once before, at Roland Garros just under 12 months ago and it was close, with Serena winning in three and the match going to 30 games. ALF had a really good read on the Williams serve that day and in a first, let alone any meeting with the best player on the planet, that is unusual. Friedsam played solidly ( very few errors) in her first round win yesterday and should strip much fresher than Williams the younger who is making her first start of the season on clay and who has not played since losing in R3 in Miami , where she is an eight time winner of what she would consider her "home town" tournament. Last year she struggled in her first european clay court start ( 32 games) and then withdrew from this tournament in R2 and despite a fine record in Rome previously, you have to feel at 34yo it doesn't get any easier to come into tournaments "cold", or to make the transition to clay from faster surfaces.
 

Friedsam took her to within five games and the match was closer than it appears ( 6-4 6-3), she followed up yesterday with another hard earned win over fellow American Christina McHale (7-6 6-1), she ran away with the second set, but was in big trouble early and McHale had ten break points and Serena was not as dominant on serve as usual. Kuznetsova has three nice wins over Garcia, Stosur and Gavrilova here, where she is a two time finalist and has played very solidly, both on serve and return. She has a 3-8 record against Serena, but they are 1-1 at Roland Garros, with both matches going the distance and Kuzzy won their last meeting in Miami ( see above), which was Serena's last tournament, I suppose that will motivate the US player, but it will similarly give Kuznetsova huge confidence. She won there after dropping the first set and that is what self belief and major titles gives you, it doesn't matter who you are playing, or the score, you always feel you can win and that is an advantage that Kuznetsova has against Williams that so few other players have, she is actually expecting to win and will play the second set , the same as the first ,regardless of whether she wins or loses the opener. She won 49 (!) points on return in that match and that gives her a chance today and I suspect that Serena will have to step up significantly on what she has shown so far in Rome to progress. Potential "upset".
 

1.5 units Svetlana Kuznetsova +4.5 games 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Ligue 2:

 

Last week I spoke about what we can expect in Ligue 2 at this time of year ........

We can normally expect more goals in all leagues at the end of the season, especially in games where there is nothing at stake and Ligue 2 is no different, this penultinate round has produced 50% of "overs" in the last three seasons , with 30% having at least four goals. Games last week produced 2.7 goals on average, which is almost half a goal up on the seasonal mean and we can expect more of the same today in general terms.
 

The ten matches averaged 3.30 goals ( 1.07 up on the season average) and we will surely see more of the same today with only four teams having anything to play for. Teams will be playing with a freedom we have seen too little of in Ligue 2 and in some cases with relief (Laval,Valenciennes,Niort) after finally cementing survival, or in celebratory mood ( Dijon and Nancy) with promotion assured and maybe even with a devil may care attitude ( Creteil, PFC) after failing to survive , or gain promotion (Red Star). Any one of those emotions can lead to goals and 8 of the 10 games on this day last season went "over" and we can expect more of the same today.

Team news is almost irrelevant in these fixtures, which always feels odd after spending much of the previous 37 rounds discussing the merits or otherwise of players who are sidelined, but for today we are mainly focused on the teams who should be looking to entertain and almost all will also be experimenting a little and giving fringe players some game time.
 

Valenciennes- Niort

 

We spoke about the increased goal threat from Niort early last month after a loss to Racing Club Lens .............

Lens were probably fortunate to take all three points against Niort, the hosts I think hit the woodwork FOUR times , I say "think" as the extended highlights I saw were of poor quality, you can see a sample on this link to the Lens website, 0.21 minutes in in, you will see one of the worst misses ever in front of a wide open goal ! Lens did come more and more into things and laid siege to the Niort goal for about 20 minutes in the middle of the second half, ending when they scored.

We have already discussed Niort and how they were denied by the woodwork four times last week, failure to win that and it was not for want of trying has seen them slip into the drop zone. They are going to have to find probably 7 points + to survive from five remaining games, only two of which are at home and they will need the same offensive commitment from now on in, if they are to survive. The mood at the club this week has seemed quite good and players have tried to take positives from the performance, rather than dwelling on the defeat, one spoke about the team having found "a soul".
 

They took ten points from their next four starts, scoring eight goals, including two on the road to Red Star and Tours, who have both been tight defensively all season. I see no reason for them to go back into their shell now that they are safe.
 

Valenciennes are now safe after that big win at Paris FC ( see previous preview) last week and will doubtless have allowed themselves a mini celebration, they will relax and can surely play their part in an open encounter in what is effectively their first "friendly" game since the end of their 2013-14 , when they conceded 13 in five starts once relegation was assured. They owe supporters another home win (just 3 all season), goals !

1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

 

Good Luck.