Saturday August 22nd #3

 

Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Sunday.

 

Brazil: Serie A:

 

We have discussed the heavy home basis in Brazil over the last 15 months or so on many occasions and hopefully, that will continue this evening, with two home teams concluding my "Saturday" business.
 

Goias- Vasco da Gama

We have looked at the last two Goias home games, visits from Atletico Mineiro and Chapecoense, notes from both were included within the latter preview......
 

Hosts have spoken in build up about how important they know this game is and have pledged to do everything to win and asked the supporters to turn out in numbers to give their backing. They played some silky football in build up , especially in the second half against AMG and were denied by the woodwork and a couple of balls which just did fall for them in front of goal, on another day they would have scored twice at least and at least offensively, they are a level above the other teams in the drop zone.
 

Both matches ended 0-0, but such is the cruel, cruel nature of the beautiful game at times, that Goias then went to Sao Paulo (6-3-0 at home, conceding just six goals) and won 3-0 ! Anyway, three league clean sheets in a row and Vasco da Gama who are bottom of the table , with seven defeats and just three goals from nine away starts are hardly going to put them under too much pressure. The visitors are already seven points from safety (effectively eight with goal difference) and might already be planning for second tier football, they did not make huge rotation for a midweek Copa do Brasil trip to Flamengo, which was the first for new coach Jorginho, 10 of the 14 played at home to Coritiba last weekend took part in the midweek game and it might be that the return leg with their cross town rival on Wednesday, will be on their mind today, especially as that will be the home debut for Jorginho. Of course, if he could go into that with three points from this it would be huge, but back to back road wins are tough and a point is not going to be of too much use, so I expect them to gamble at some stage and for the home side to take advantage.
 

Goias are now just a point from safety and a win tonight is likely to take them out of the drop zone and that is a mighty big incentive. They rested all but three players for their midweek game , where they kept another clean sheet and their focus has been pretty much solely on this fixture since returning from SP. The new coach effect might continue for Vasco , but if Goias get the breakthrough goal, I think the visitors focus could quickly switch and the hosts might even run away with this.

 

 

Santos - Avai SC

 

Ahead of a recent home game versus Gremio I wrote the following about the hosts...........

Santos are coming from back to back road defeats and will be eager to get back on track today, they get central defender David Braz and defensive midfielder Lucas Otavio back  from suspension, the pair missed the midweek loss to Fluminense where Santos lost to a late goal (which the keeper should have saved) at a time when they were themselves pushing for a winner and there is quite a lot to like about this Santos team and I will be paying special attention to them in the coming weeks. Anyway, they have options to freshen up and improve the starting eleven today and I take them to win.

They did not win that day, but have since found a little form here on home soil and scored eight goals in winning three straight league and cup fixtures. They are still in a little trouble at the wrong end of the table , sitting just three points above the drop zone and they will be eyeing up a maximum return from both this and a midweek visit from another struggling team in Vasco da Gama. Both currently sit at the foot of the table and the points are there for the taking, football is never that easy, but if they win today it will take the pressure off for the next game and that will clearly be the target for this evening. Santos have scored an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last ten home starts against Coritiba, with at least two goals in nine of those and given that they have now found some form in front of goal, I would be surprised if that trend didn't continue.

Coritiba have yet to win on the road, already losing six times and a lack of goals ( 0.5 per game away from home) is costing them dear, they arrive without key central defender Luccas Claro who was expected to return today, he has been given a little longer to recuperate and will not be risked, with and I am reading between the lines here, the home game with Palmeiras in midweek being deemed more important/ win-able. Edit: I have only just seen their confirmed squad for today a short time before sending the newsletter, they do appear to be prioritising the midweek fixture, I can think of no other reason why they have left most of their starting defenders at home. Only one of the backline from the last league outing has travelled to Santos and four of the six defenders named have made just four appearnces this season between them. Sounds a little odd, anyway, home win and maybe a few goals.
 

Thy won that 3-0 and have really up their game since, recording four consecutive clean sheets, including a 2-0 defeat of league leaders Corinthians in the cup in midweek, regardless of the line ups, that will have been a wonderful confidence boost and they will approach this match in stark contrast to Avai who collected ten of their 20 points from their first six games and have been playing at relegation level ever since.  Santos will move into the top ten with the win, at least for 24 hours and with half the season still to play, even a run at top 4 is not as far fetched as it might have looked a month ago, although I did highlight them (see above) as a potential improver even before that upturn in fortune.

 

1.5 units Santos -1.25 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.