Championship update ............
Oct 08, 2021
Pre season I put up an outright selection for the English Championship which was sent to subscribers and also everyone in the data base, so, very many of you got to see it at the time and those notes are reproduced below the "good luck " sign off.
As promised in that preview, I updated my notes during the first international break .............
The Cherries are unbeaten through five games, but three draws is not ideal, especially as they led in two of those and by 2-0 in one, but it is a launching pad and they were very good in a 0-0 draw away to Hull just before the break, "winning" BC's 4-1 and on target attempts
5-0.
The Transfer window is now closed and surprisingly only Arnaud Danjuma left, all the other names ( see above) remain and Jeffereson Lerma actually started and played all 90 minutes against the Tigers. Scott Parker also got a couple of additions late in the window and one or two who would walk into many championship starting 11's will not even make the bench today. The front five of Lerma/Billing/ Brooks/Solanke/ Anthony is very fluid and super talented, as good as most/all in the second tier and will create problems today for a changed Barnsley backline due to the suspension to CB Liam Kitching, who has played all 450 + minutes so far.
We are now 11 rounds into the season and Bornemouth are unbeaten, in fact, they are the only unbeaten team in the whole of the EFL (72 teams), they sit top of the Championship with a three point lead ...........
| 2021/22 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
 |
1 |  1 |
Bournemouth | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 25 | WOWW | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
|
2 |  1 |
WBA | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 | LWWX | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
 |
3 | 1 |
Coventry City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 22 | WLWX | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
|
4 | 1 |
Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 21 | WXWL | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
|
5 | 2 |
Fulham | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 20 | LWXL | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 |
|
6 | 2 |
QPR | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 18 | WWLL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
Odds of 10.0-11.0 have long gone of course and they are now a best priced 4.50.
If we look at their upcoming fixtures, their next 8 starts are against teams with a current average league position of 12.75 and the xP tables puts those apponents at an average placing of 15.12 , it doesn't mean they are "easy" games, that doesn't really apply in this most competitive of divisions, just that the Cherries have averaged 2.27 points so far and have played six teams ranked top 10 for xP, so upcoming games have to be seen as a similar level at worst . It is surely a good opportunity for Bournemouth to build on their fine start and for Parker to continue to lift confidence levels.
Good luck !
No interest in the Europa League , so I will use today to take a quick look at the Championship outright market.
I feel like I know 22 of these 24 teams really well, so I am very hopeful we will have another really good season in the Championship.
This league has changed a lot , clubs have either run out of money, fallen foul of FFP rules (not that punishments ever seem to be applied or enforced), or for other reasons have decided not to gamble, beyond what is deemed reasonable, to achieve that holy grail of Premier League football. No one is spending much and a lot of budgets are being trimmed.
However, 7 of the last 9 teams promoted were either relegated the previous season , or very recently and were still benefiting from parachute payments. The other two were Leeds United a huge club in Championship terms and Brentford who are run differently to everyone else, but who did finish 3rd in back to back seasons, so it is a pretty elite bunch.
Looking at the last ten seasons, that's 30 teams promoted, they comprised of .............
9 relegated teams
10 who had lost in the playoffs the previous season
1 promoted team
10 who had finished between 8th- 20th the previous season
The promoted team were Southampton, they were only 7 years out of the top flight and had a Premier league set up and billionaire owner and were not your average team coming up from the third tier and even Wolverhampton Wanderers who had a similar profile needed a season in the Championship to stabilize, so we can call that a blip and move on.
All three relegated teams could and should do ok, but have issues to address and all have new head coaches which is unusual. Fulham have an amazing Championship record having finished 6-3-4 in their last three campaigns at this level, making the playoffs each time and winning the last two. They should go well, but half their team in the second half of last season were loanees and they have some rebuilding to do. WBA were not even a very good Championship team the year they went up and goals are going to be a problem unless they find a proven striker from somewhere. Sheffield United had a nightmare 2020-21 and have parted ways with Chris Wilder who more than head coach, was heart and soul of the club and it is a big ask for someone to turn them around, having said that, Slavisa Jokanovic looks a good appointment and Fulham were a very good team the season he took them up. However, supporters believe that the Saudi owner is too hands on, without the knowledge to be much "help" and for now, a watching brief.
The 8th-20th group is interesting and to narrow it down, the three from this section who actually won the league, all finished 10th-15th the previous season. This time round that is made up of ............ Middlesbrough, Millwall, Luton Town, Preston North End, Stoke City and Blackburn Rovers.
City have had really good xP numbers in each of the last two seasons and are only three years removed from the Premier League, but they have finished 16-14-13 in their three Championship campaigns, their chance was similar /better 12 months ago and they are in the process of clearing a LOT of overpaid players out of the club and would view top half as improvement.
Boro are the most obvious candidate and looked quite decent at times last season and were circa 7th for xP and I quite like the business they have done and Neil Warnock and his staff know how to get out of this division, but they still look 3-4 signings light.
The other four are priced 25-1 to 50-1 , so you get decent odds and at least one is almost certain to go well, but I don't see any of them as a potential title winner.
That leaves the playoff losers......
I just cannot see Barnsley replicating last season's incredible run, they are no longer the surprise package they were and have lost their head coach , could not make the Daryl Dike loan permanent and key player and captain Alex Mowatt, declined to sign a new contract and turned down what the Tykes called " the most lucrative deal ever offered to a player".
Swansea City were only 13th for xP and I spoke often about them overachieving and they were comprehensively outplayed in the playoff final by Brentford, head coach Steve Cooper has left, along with star player Andre Ayew and they are very much a club in transition.
These two might even struggle.
Finally we have Bournemouth.
After they had lost 2-1 at Brentford in late December I wrote .............
Brentford won and we were royally entertained with two teams going toe to toe and the first half was as good as anything you will ever see in the Championship.Bournemouth ripped the Bees to shreds in the opening 10 minutes or so and could easily have been two up. Brentford then got a toehold in the game and started to get on top and such is the way of these things, that it was then that the Cherries scored with what had been their first attack in 15 minutes. That would have broken many teams, but the Bees came back and equalised before the break. The second half continued in similar albeit less frenetic pace and the Bees got what I thought was a deserved winner, but then I would say that !
Bournemouth or rather head coach Jason Tindall, made a tactical error in the second half and that handed the initiative firmly to the home side IMO, but that aside, the Cherries were head and shoulders above any opponent the Bees have faced this season and only Leeds in 19-20 were similarly impressive. I am not sure they are as determined a unit ( some scars might remain from last season) or as well coached as Brentford and the Bees will still get better, I know I keep saying it and they are unbeaten in 16 already, but they can only go one way.
It was hard not to be impressed with both teams that day, the Bees went on to earn promotion and actually beat the Cherries in the playoff semi finals, losing 1-0 (unluckily) away in the first leg, but dominating the return game to progress, ahead of that I noted ......
I suspect Bournemouth are a little scared/nervous, Brentford would never have played for the corners late in the first leg at 1-0 in what was effectively only half time, with possibly 95-125 minutes still to play. They just wouldn't.
Bournemouth actually led in the second game (2-0 on aggregate) but were again too timid and they lost the game 3-1. Jason Tindall had long since left and had been replaced by an interim head coach in Jonathan Woodgate. The former Real Madrid and England defender won 11/19 league games in charge, which would have been good for 84 points and 4th place across 46 games and was less than 90 minutes away from the playoff final, but it was not deemed good enough and he has been replaced by Scott Parker who led Fulham to promotion in 2019-20. Bournemouth had pursued Parker a year earlier when Eddie Howe left the South Coast club, but now have their man.
I think that Parker's shortcomings were exposed in the Premier League, but do not doubt that he would have learned much and he won more than 50% of Championship games at Fulham and showed more tactical nous in the playoff final than expected that season. So nothing wrong with his second tier form and knowledge. Early signs have been good, the intensity has been really good in pre-season and they have been pressing hard in friendly games and there were a lot of positives to take from their game with Chelsea last weekend when they led until late.
The only permanent signing so far has been Emiliano Marcondes, who was a part of Brentford's playoff winning team and he actually scored in the final, he will thrive with more game time than he got with the Bees. It appears that like many teams , Bournemouth are going to sell before spending much, for example, Lerma and/or Danjuma are set to leave, but neither have done so yet and others like Philip Billing have announced they are happy at the club and impressed with what Parker and his staff have bought with them. Adam Smith and Junior Stanislas are in that group too and both signed new contracts in the last fortnight. It will be a huge month ahead with a lot of business in and out, but that will be the same right across the Championship and we will know far more come September 1st.
Bournemouth were a very good Championship team the year they went up, pleasing on the eye and playing offensive/front foot football and continued in similar vein for four years in the top flight and survived with a degree of comfort, before switching to a more defensive mindset in 19-20 which cost them their Premier League status. That is not the way to thrive in the Championship, Tindall was not up to the job, Woodgate judged similarly, although his results were decent enough. Parker knows what is required and unlike the other two, is a permanent appointment and has been long sought after and will get time, which lifts the pressure to a degree. He will have been promised funds too, albeit only if he has to raise them first and I suspect that any fees received, will be made available to him. Many of the squad have PL experience and they make both the previous season playoff group and recent top flight club criteria who have done so well.
They finished 6th last season, could have been 5th if they had won their last game of the regular season and were 5th for xP, the three best teams were promoted and the trio coming down look a little weaker and the other two playoff teams significantly so.
I can only see one of the relegated teams or Bournemouth winning the title and for now, prefer the bigger odds about the Cherries.
I will revise my thoughts on this market in the first international break , by which time we will have five rounds of results and stats and the transfer window will be closed. For now, something small on the South Coast side ...........
1.5 units Bournemouth to win outright 10.0-11.0 general quote.
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