Championship betting tip: Aston Villa - Brentford
Aug 22, 2018
Championship: Aston Villa - Brentford
Live on Sky.
Notes on Brentford's home game on Sunday with Sheffield Wednesday went a lot like this ...............
Bees went to Stoke City last week and I wrote .........
My notes on Brentford's 5-1 win over Rotherham United last week can be read on the clubgowi website, it ran to 3,700 words so is easier to link to it than reproduce all !
I felt United were not as bad as the scoreline suggests, but the Bees were very good and Millers boss Paul Warne, said numerous times in his post match interview just how "amazing" they were. He also mentioned the set piece plays of Brentford and this is something they have worked incredibly hard on in the last 12-18 months and they were incredibly inventive.
Despite Premier League interest in Mepham and Watkins, Brentford kept both, putting a 20m and 15m plus add ons valuation on the duo and turning down at least three bids for the former that I am aware of (biggest was 15m +). Ryan Woods was expected to leave, but the deal did not get done, he could still go to a Championship club on a loan with option to buy deal, but has travelled with the team and whilst I would not expect and hope he doesn't start, I have no doubts he will retain his focus when he next does. This was a huge window and statement of intent for Brentford who are a tiny club and could have opted to bank 30-40m if they had come down on valuation for several players, but the idea is to give 18-19 a "go".
Today will be tough, City have plenty of Premiership quality in their ranks, spent well and big on Tom Ince and Benik Afobe, plus Etebo, Clucas, McClean and Ashley Williams and will be hungry after an opening day 3-1 loss on the road to Leed United in front of television cameras and the natives will not be happy if they do not win today. However, the Championship is not an easy league and there are few easy games, four of the newbies played in the opener and did not help much and might need time and City do have right now (it could change today) a losing mentality, they have won just 9 of 50 league starts since March 2017 and it is very difficult to get out of that mindset and it is why many relegated teams teams continue to struggle, they just get, as a club, out of the winning habit. Good test for both teams, but I think we have to try something on the outsider.
Bit of a broken record from last season, but Brentford dominated, could have been 3-4 up and then conceded, but came on strong, scored via a 15 pass move wonder goal and were denied two big shouts, one was stonewall, for penalties. A draw was not terrible and the Bees made 11 changes for the Tuesday League Cup trip to Southend, where they scored four (2-4). It is hard to get praise from other clubs, but Shrimpers supporters said .......
- As others have said we were beaten by a classy side last night, would be very surprised if we come up against a team as good as Brentford's reserves again this season - amazed at how far the gulf is between us now and a club I always considered to be quite similar in size to Southend.
- No real surprise we lost tonight, Brentford are an excellent footballing team
- I can see why Brentford are being tipped for promotion, they passed us off the pitch at times, if it wasn't for Oxley it could easily have been 7 or 8.
- We outclassed by Brentford today and were deservingly beaten. When I saw they made 11 changes I thought we might have a chance at beating them but that wasn't the case. The score probably flattered us in all honesty
- Brentford were hugely impressive and to think they made 11 changes to the side that drew with Stoke at the weekend! All of their players were so comfortable on the ball and they attacked at pace and with no little imagination.
Brentford obviously have big options today and 2-3 players who might have started 12 months ago, will not even make the bench.
Wednesday have been under a transfer embargo, so have not been able to make a signing or any sort, loan or otherwise, it was lifted this week, so they will be looking to get busy in the loan markets before the end of this month, but not ahead of this game. They played their cup game on Thursday, two days later than the Bees, five played in that and the last league game, so they will not be quite as fresh as the hosts and might tire a little late in the game, which is when Brentford traditionally come on strong at GP ( see Rotherham notes).
The Bees won 2-0 and missed four one on one's with the keeper, Wednesday had one attempt from inside the box in 90 minutes play and would not have scored if they were still playing !
Those pre season Brentford notes ( see link above) did touch upon the financial issues at Villa and ahead of their opener,a trip to Hull City, I updated with .........
Both have well documented off the pitch issues and financial problems, Villa's have been eased to a degree by the new takeover, but the owner's have so far made staving off administration the priority for one of England's most famous old clubs.There was also talk of Thierry Henry coming in as head coach, but that is on hold and Steve Bruce still at the helm, but with no new players and several senior high earners having left (Samba, Terry, Agbonlahor), or on their way out. Having said that, they did come within a whisker of promotion, losing in the playoff final to Fulham and if they had won that, the extent of their financial problems would probably never have come to light. Their core squad is still strong Chester, Grealish, Kodija, Hutton, Jedinak, Hourihane, Adomah, Hogan and many other "names" are options for Bruce, but his team team might have to go with three at the back which they have experimented with in pre season, but which many supporters dislike.
They won that 3-1, then saw off Wigan Athletic here at Villa Park 3-2 and drew 1-1 with Ipswich on Saturday. Given all their issues and a much troubled summer, that is a great start, but all three have been conceding freely, the Tigers are much troubled on and off the pitch, Athletic newly promoted but led with under 30 minutes remaining and Town look weak, over performed last season, have continued to under invest and played almost an hour with ten men and held on for a point. That doesn't have to mean that Villa are bad, they are a MASSIVE club, the biggest in England's second city with still big potentional and a huge fan base and should always be expected to challenge, but today they will get their first real test.
Brentford outplayed Villa in two games last season, took four points and scored four goals, Villa have almost certainly gome backwards since then, the Bees have taken further strides forward in every department.
If they opt not to rotate, you will get a look at Brentford's pair of 20 yo ball playing central defenders, they effectively turned down 20m for Chris Mepham, appear to have unearthed one of similar level in Ezri Konsa (pictured). I also hope you will get to see something from Said Benrahma who has shown more in 62 minutes off the bench than some players do in a dozen starts and very big things are expected of him.
Visiting head coach Dean Smith grew up a Villa fan and he will want to perform and come away from VP undefeated for the third season running. Bees go third with a point, top with a two goal win, the Villans third should they avoid defeat.
1.5 units Brentford level ball 2.10+ asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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