Henrik Stenson is going well at Bay Hill and he, leader Jason Day and Justin Rose are the cream at the top of the leaderboard and the trio have already opened up a bit of a gap over the pack. Stenson will have to play at his absolute best to get past Day, but at 15.0 to win ( now 4.33) and 4.0 for top 5 (down to 1.40 max) we have great value and an exciting weekend of golf ahead.
 

I have previewed six games today and you can read two of them below, I think that the options on the first are a "flip" or close to it (both offer decent value) and am also tempted by the big odds away win in the second.

 

Championship: Brentford- Blackburn Rovers

 

Hosts are in a bit of a tailspin, a really fine performance and 3-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers in the home game before last aside, and their confidence is brittle and they are conceding the first goal too often and then one quickly becomes two if things do not immediately swing back their way. Ahead of the last home start, a 2-1 loss to woeful Charlton I wrote ..........

I will be at Griffin Park today, the 3-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers aside, the Bees have not looked like keeping a clean sheet in recent weeks and, not for the first time in 2016, were out muscled (bullied) at Rotherham United last weekend and could not build on the fine win over Wolves. Charlton arrive bottom of the Championship, seven points from safety and 11 adrift of the team in 20th place, they are much, much worse defensively and have conceded 65 goals this season, a whopping 38 on the road at an average of 2.24 per game. They did win 4-1 at same said Rotherham at the end of January , but have shown nothing like that since, or at any real time this season to be honest, they might take some heart from scoring three against a decent Reading side at the Valley last week, but as they lost by the odd goal in seven, maybe not !

I was at the reverse fixture in SE London, the Addicks started well and looked up for the encounter, but as soon as Brentford took the lead it was game over and the visiting side eased home 3-0. Charlton will have to look for the win, they are not going to travel to meet many teams who are as vulnerable at the back as the Bees are right now and the home side are very young and it has to be said lightweight and without any real presence in the holding role. Ahead of the win over Wolves I wrote ............

The Bees have the youngest group in the division, average age is 24.0 years and the mean for the Championship is 26.3 and that is a big edge in terms of experience to give away. The squad tonight is likely to contain 13 players aged 24 or younger, ten who are 22 or less, to put that into some context, the last three teams that the Bees have faced used 42 players between them, only five of whom were under 24 .

 

I think that we will see goals and a Brentford win, but "over" 3 @ 2.11 and -1 ball 2.17 do not immediately leap off the page as being over priced, but there are reasons to feel this might be a little cautious early (Brentford have scored 70% of home goals in the final 40 minutes of games, Charlton have a 3-1 goal difference on the road in the first 10 minutes, but it is downhill after that and they are especially leaky in the final 15 minutes of each half, as you might expect) and if we could find 2.10 for the 2.75 goal line in running, or 2.10 -0.75 ball, I would want to get involved. Both would appeal, but given the defensive issues for each, I would have to opt for the "over" for 1.5 units. As with any "in running suggestions, I only want to bet if we are playing 11v 11.
 

They conceded inside 20 seconds there and have subsequently lost 3-0 at West London rivals QPR and the natives are not happy and the atmosphere at both games was toxic, several fights broke out amongst the Brentford supporters at Rangers and my daughter who couldn't weight 50 kilos if she was carrying a bag of potatoes, but would not back down from anyone, spent most of the second half of the Charlton game defending her team against home "fans" abusing players, coach and club. Things could turn sour today, but there have been some clear the air meetings and Brentford signed Leandro Rodriguez a Uruguay striker on loan from Everton this week and I understand that the mood in training has been much better this week and the Bees have had a free midweek to rest and prepare, Rovers lost 2-0 at Ipswich Town on Tuesday and that makes for a tough week and quite a bit of travelling. Star Brentford player Alan Judge will be up for this facing the club where he was deemed surplus to requirements and I do think we might see the real home side today. I think the -0.25 ball line and "over" 2.5 goals both offer good value at 2.10 + and it is a bit of a coinflip. I have gone with the "over" in several starts since New Year, but think today I will go with............. 1.25 units Brentford -0.25 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Ligue 2: Nancy- Racing Club Lens

 

Ahead of last week's trip to Bourg-Peronnas I looked at Nancy's position and upcoming games .............

Today we have the second worse defence in L2 against the second best attack and there should certainly be goals in this for Nancy, who are looking to preserve their healthy lead in second place over the chasing pack. One, maybe more of Red Star, Le Havre, Clermont, Lens will come on strong in the next two months, Nancy know that and actually face two of those teams in the next four weeks and also travel to leaders Dijon and points today will surely be easier to come by and would greatly ease pressure ahead of those tough fixtures. I think they will be out all guns blazing for maximum points today and will be buoyed by their first real defensive performance last week in a 2-0 win over Red Star, however, it came at a cost and today they will be without both left back Vincent Muratori and central defender Mikael Chretien Basser, the pair have missed just three starts between them this season and that is very disruptive. Nancy had conceded twice in each of their previous four starts, including at home to Paris Fc and the visitors seem unlikely to win without conceding.
 

They lost that 2-0, failure to score against BEBP was not encouraging and conceding twice for the fifth time in six starts (just 18 times in 24 outing previously) very worrying and they are in a slump right now. They remain without Muratori and Chretien Basser ( see above) and Lens who could move to within two points of a promotion spot with the win, will surely arrive with more hope than they would have held six weeks ago and perhaps with greater ambition, as a single point is not going to really be enough, as that would keep six teams ahead of them and two would have a game in hand.
 

 

Nancy : Ndy Assembe, Menay, Cuffaut, Cétout, Diakhaté, Diagne, Lenglet, Badila, Aït Bennasser, Guidileye, Pedretti, Lusamba, Puyo, Coulibaly, Dalé, Robic, Hadji, Busin.

 

Lens : Delle, Vachoux, Ikoko, Cvetinovic, Ba, Scaramozzino, Landre, Lala, Olsen, Gbamin, Autret, Nomenjanahary, Cyprien, Bourigeaud, Chavarria, Nanizayamo, Madiani.