I have spoken recently about Barcelona maybe looking a little tired/jaded and that has surely been backed up by the Catalan giants collecting just a single point from three La Liga starts, including losing to Real Sociedad last weekend. They did manage to win the home leg of this tie last Tuesday by a 2-1 scoreline, but Atletico controlled the first 30 minutes there and led courtesy of a Fernando Torres goal, before he turned from hero to villan by needlessly getting himself dismissed and that turned the game on it's head and playing with ten men for an hour against a team who move the ball as well and as quickly as Barce, was always likely to be a thankless task. My notes from that game, in which I spoke about how tough it was to defend the Champions League nowadays and highlighted why Barcelona could be running out of gas, the bad luck that Atleti had in recent h2h meetings and how tough the team from Madrid are to score against, are reproduced in full at the foot of this email and I would suggest that you start by re-reading those..
 

I suspect that Diego Simeone and his team will stick with their game plan, look to mainly defend and frustrate Barce and to try and win 1-0, the scoreline which would see them progress on the away goal rule. Barcelona do not need to win to progress and might be similarly happy to play out the opening period quietly and will be mindful that when they lost out to Atletico at this stage two years ago, it was a very similar scenario, 1-0 would see the hosts progress and they took a very early lead and then played like the away team, sat back and dared Barce to break them down. To be honest, the home side were much the better team for me in that game, despite having only 36% possession and flew out of the blocks, hitting the woodwork three times in the opening 19 minutes ! Maybe they will tear at the visitors again from the off, the home crowd will definitely be willing them to do so, but whether the goal comes early or late, I favour Atletico and feel that all the value remains with them and that odds of 2.30 + off level ball are wrong about two well matched teams and there are plenty of scorelines by which the hosts can win and Barce still be in the competition after 90 minutes, which I always feel is a bonus in these situations.

 

 

 

Good Luck.
 

 

UEFA Champions League: Barcelona- Atletico Madrid

 

It is over 25 years since a team "repeated" in the Champions League/European Cup (Milan in 1990) and it was a decade before that for the previous time ( Nottingham Forest in 1980). It is hard to know exactly why that would be the case, over the last decade Barcelona have put together several teams which are frequently touted as the greatest club side of all time and they have won the competition four times, but have never been able to follow up and it is clear, stating the obvious, that it is now extremely difficult to win back to back titles.

My guess is that the physical and mental demands are simple too great nowadays, teams are worn out come the business end of the following campaign , due to the extended previous season, World Club Cup fixtures ( Barce have flown mid season to Japan after three of their wins) , huge demands on the winners to play highly lucrative pre season games around the world and in addition , most of the squad being called upon to play international football during the summer break at least every other year. All take a toll and the price has to be paid somewhere down the line, maybe Barce will buck the trend this season, someone will do so sooner or later, but I do not feel the Catalan giants offer good value (exactly the opposite) at quotes of 2.50 to win the competition, when they might have to pass Atletico who beat them at this stage in 2013-14 and then Bayern or Real Madrid, just to get the opportunity to play the final, by the way, only two teams have made back to back finals in the last 14 years . Anyway, we can probably agree it is a big ask and I think that in terms of winning the competition, Atletico at a juicy looking 21.0 and Real Madrid @ 6.0 make far more appeal.
 

I like both, but am betting Atletico today and think I will skip putting anything up "officially" outright as that always seems to result in more questions/complaints than it is worth, but I would like to point out something , Real are a general 6.0 to win, I think that is a very good price, each way most companies offer 1/3 of the odds 1-2 (so you will get odds of 5/3 for the place part.........reaching the final) which might be a little bettter. Bet 365 offer 1/2 the odds 1-2 and that is just plain wrong, that is 5/2 or 3.50 for them to reach the final, they are 1.06 with Sbobet to go through against Wolfsburg, if you think that is roughly correct, you get 3.30 for them to progress through the semis, the only team they can be close to those odds against is Barcelona ( I would personally not be that big in any case), even IF Barce qualify, there is still a 67% chance Real will avoid them in the last four and the team from Madrid have just won in the Camp Nou and have had no Copa del Rey commitments for many months. Since the start of December, Atletico have played 27 times, Barcelona 30, Real just 22 and I think that is starting to show. Barce showed signs in the games with Arsenal, Villarreal and Real that form had dipped a little and that is all it takes at this level of competition. Anyway, it is always worth looking at place odds in events "in running" late in competitions, bookmakers are often lazy in updating them and do not give them enough thought, the hard part is always "getting on" of course, but in this case the straight win odds about both "other" Spanish teams, but especially Real offer good value anyway.
 

I spoke about Atleti and how they were unfortunate not to have already won this competion and were perhaps the easiest winner ever of the Europa league in 2012, ahead of their round of 16 game with PSV .............
 

Atletico have been fast learners in how to play these games and you have to be to thrive and progress, but the trouble is the learning curve is steep and you do not get many goes to get it right ! I discussed this and how Diego Simeone had learned so much from previous ties and "how to play the CL" ahead of road games at Galatasaray and Benfica this season and notes on both can be found at the foot of this email (edit: see Feb 24th newsletter). I think his and his team's ( almost) sole focus from here on in will be the Champions League and given how strong they are defensively and on the break, I doubt any team in Europe, maybe Barcelona aside, is better equipped to play these kind of away games, especially against what is, it has to be said, now a very inexperienced team at this level of competition, playing their first CL knockout game in a decade. Atletico will want that cherished away goal and just one might be enough to win this, but Atleti scored two in the two road games in the competition in which we have backed them and IMO this fixture is not much more difficult. Atletico have posted a La Liga high nine road wins and only Barcelona have scored against them in their last five away starts, apart from games against the "big 2" , they have kept clean sheets in 67% of all starts and even then, many of those conceded were either late consolations or in meaningless ( already won ) fixtures.
 

Ahead of the return leg, I spoke about how they were unlucky not to have won the first meeting and that they had since found a few goals, also the fitness regime that Diego Simeone had put his players through in pre season ............
 

Much talk has been made about the gruelling summer fitness campaign that Diego Simeone put his players through, but it is hard to get away from the feeling that all the benefits of that are kicking in now and his squad are getting stronger, whilst others are feeling the effects of eight months of football. PSV created just one attempt that required to be saved in the first leg and their task is harder today, although perhaps more clear cut, they have lost 9 of 12 road games in the competition and will hit double figures today and if and once the tie feels beyond them and that might be a subconscious decision, thoughts might then turn to Ajax. That will require a second goal at least for Atleti and that is back to where we started this preview !

 

They made very hard work of that game and needed the lottery of a penalty shoot out to progress, but had 26 attempts on goal, were again denied by the inform visiting keeper and few teams win any knockout competitions without one close shave along the way and maybe this was Atletico's. They were unable to lift themselves for that trip to Gijon (see above) which would have been given low priority, but returned from the international break to put five past Real Betis last weekend. Since knocking Barcelona out of the competition two years ago, they have not beaten the Catalan club and have lost the last five all by a single goal, but they led in two of those and ended games with nine men twice. If they can keep their discipline, without losing their competitive edge and Simeone will surely see that doesn't happen a third time, then I see big value in the visitors with the full goal handicap start. We all know about the huge offensive threat that Barcelona possess, but we are also talking about the best defence in Europe and if my counting was correct, it is 64 competitive league games since Atletico lost by two or more and they have actually conceded twice only seven times in that sequence and two of those fixtures I would argue that they were "not overly interested" in. By the way, Bayern, Real and Atletico have all had more attempts on goal than Barce in the competition this season, both in total and on target. It has to be the visitors with the handicap start for me.