Champions League betting preview..........
Oct 05, 2022
UEFA Champions League: Sevilla -Borussia Dortmund
I opposed Sevilla when they started their group campaign at home to Manchester City and spoke about some real issues at the Andalusian club.....
City and Erling Haaland look unstoppable and a relentless offensive force, the only thing wrong with that statement is the fact that Newcastle and Aston Villa have already stopped them in 3-3 and 1-1 draws. Having said that, they have scored 20 goals in six EPL starts and we all know that the Holy Grail for this club is the Champions League and they will be looking for a 6th straight quarter final appearance and to better a run to the final in 20/21 and final four last season, when they were two goals up on aggregate as the second leg entered added time, which even now seems crazy to type. They had dominated Real Madrid up to that point and those final five minutes or so must have haunted Pep and his team ever since. Now they face a tough game in Seville against a home side also hugely experienced in Europe and very difficult to beat, but this is not that Sevilla, just a pale imitation!
The home side finished 4th in 21/22 and for a while looked set to put in a title push, but they only won 5 of their final 18 starts , averaging 1.22 goals scored per game, with the other top 4 sides averaging between 1.87 and 2.17 through the same period. They were eliminated from the Europa League by West Ham and came into this campaign with pre season losses to both Arsenal and Leicester by a combined 7-0 and they have "built on that" taking just a single point from four league starts. The first three were against weak opposition, they hosted Barcelona at the weekend and lost 3-0, it was not just the score, but performance, the Catalan side simply carved Sevilla open at will , xG says it was 0.9-4.8 but it felt FAR more emphatic. BC's were 1-9 and that is a far better indicator of how the game played out. You do wonder how ugly this could get, if the hosts play similarly and City close to their best and get an early(ish) lead.
It looks like a bad transfer window for Sevilla who lost both starting central defenders in Diego Carlos and Jules Kounde, the two were pretty much first names on the team sheet last season and their absence has left the hosts in a bit of a mess.
City won 4-0. Sevilla did get their group campaign underway with a 0-0 draw in Copenhagen, but FCK had already lost 3-0 (5-1 BC's, 2.8-0.6 xG) away to Borussia. The German side lost 2-1 in Manchester on Matchday 2, but no shame in that and they "won" BC's and xG, just as they did in a 3-2 loss at Koln over the weekend (4 missed BC's) and they are certainly creating chances and will sure get then this evening as Sevilla have to look for all three points. This feels fairly simple, if Dortmund create as much today as they did on Saturday or play to the level they have in the first two group stage games, they win!
2.25 units Borussia Dortmund -0.5 ball 2.33 asian line.
Good luck!
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