Bundesliga.........Wolves scoring for fun!
Jan 24, 2023
Bundesliga :Hertha Berlin- Wolfsburg
I sided with Wolfsburg at home to high-flying Freiburg on Saturday ..........
Wolfsburg are on fire ! They are unbeaten in eight and won their last four with an 11-1 goal difference (playing three top 11 opponents, including Dortmund), they have scored 2+ goals in their last six ( facing five top 12 teams). They carried that form into warm up games scoring 9 in their last three all against decent opposition, including a 2-2 draw in London against Brentford, where they looked sharp, despite being right in the middle of the break. Freiburg will be delighted with second place, they have overachieved big time and there is so much to admire about how the club is run, but they have had to sell hugely promising Kevin Schade to Brentford in this window and are always going to have to be a selling club. There are a few holes in their road form and their last five away starts were....
3-1 loss at Leipzig where they "lost" xG 2.95-0.18, BC's 5-0, ITB 11-3 creating almost zero.
2-0 win at basement club Schalke
5-0 defeat at Bayern, lost xG 2.1-0.35, BC's 4-0, ITB 12-5 and the Bavarian giants always give up more than that!
2-2 draw at struggling Hertha
0-0 draw at Hoffenheim, TSG have conceded at least twice in all four subsequent home starts.
The goals flowed once more for the Wolves, they led by three inside 38 minutes and won 6-0 ( 5-0 for BC's). At the same time struggling Hertha Berlin were losing 3-1 at Bochum, one of only three teams below them in the table going into that round of games, the two have now traded positions and Hertha are above only Schalke. The home side have kept just a single clean sheet (home to Köln) in 11 Bundesliga starts and conceded 3 BC's and 1.93 xGA in that, the Berlin club have given up an average of 2.19 xGA ( 1.65 min) in their last six starts versus top half of the table opponents. They finished 16th last season, surviving via the relegation playoff and since November 2021 they have averaged just 0.85 points per game (41 starts), good for 29 pts across 34 games and that will always get you relegated. Wolfsburg are up to 7th, just 4 points off second place and scoring for fun, they do have a couple of issues at the back, but look far too clinical offensively to not take full advantage of the chances which will surely come their way this evening. The visitors have taken 10 points from their last four h2h visits to Berlin and a 4th win in five looks highly likely.
Wolfsburg were 4th in 20/21 with 61 goals and a +24 goal difference and are on track for very similar numbers this time around, they are currently the 4th highest scorers with the third best GD.
2.25 units Wolfsburg to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.27 asian line,best alternative -0.5 ball 2.39 and very little between the two options, both of which look "good".
Good luck!
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