Bundesliga betting tip: Werder Bremen - Eintracht Frankfurt
Feb 26, 2021
Bundesliga: Werder Bremen - Eintracht Frankfurt
Last weekend I ran fully updated Bundesliga stats and Bremen came in with 23 xP from their 20 games which was the same as their real total, their seasonal ITB and BC numbers were 114-150 and 26-39 and for the last five starts 26-28 and 6-5 respectively. Frankfurt had played a game more and their xP of 40 was one more than their actual total, they were 197-50 ITB, 62-38 BC for the season and 53-29 and 15-4 for their last five.
If we look at those stats it is amazing how close all those defensive numbers are for both teams, but EF are on a whole different level offensively. Frankfurt built on their great run with a 2-1 defeat of champions Bayern Munich ahead of which I wrote..............
Frankfurt are on a roll , in third place on merit and xP ranks them top 4 and level with Bayern, seasonal ITB and BC's give the visitors a more realistic edge, but those defensive concerns we have voiced over the Bavarian giants hardly eased in that 3-3 home draw with Bielefeld earlier this week. Bayern also face Lazio on Tuesday in the Champions League and will be wary of picking up any injuries ahead of that and their squad is not the deepest, especially compared to the other European giants. The visitors will also well remember their last visit to Frankfurt which they lost by the shock scoreline of 5-1. Last five game numbers put EF a net +6 for BC's over Bayern and the home side have tightened up considerably at the back without it coming at any cost offensively, which is rarely the case.
Bayern have travelled without Corentin Tolisso (ruptured tendon), Benjamin Pavard, Thomas Müller (both self-isolating after testing positive for COVID-19), Serge Gnabry (rehabilitative training following a torn muscle), Alexander Nübel (rehabilitative training following an ankle ligament injury), Tanguy Nianzou (rehabilitative training following a torn thigh muscle) and Douglas Costa (hairline fracture of the right metatarsal) . The energy of Müller ,who is rarely sidelined, was sadly missed on Monday and you do feel that right now Bayern are forced to look at the bigger picture and upcoming games, not just today. They also know that defensively they are not good enough which is why they have already made "summer signings" in an attempt to tighten up next season.
Bremen went to similarly placed Hoffenheim, but another strong offensive unit like Frankfurt and lost 4-0 and also came up well short statistically (2-9 ITB and 0-6 BC's).
Frankfurt won 3-0 here in Bremen last June and look so much stronger now, they have increased options today compared to the Bayern game and the home side have a whole host of defensive issues, I can really only see this ending one way.
2.25 units Eintracht Frankfurt -1 ball 2.45 asian line/Sportmarket .
Good luck !
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