Bayern are back from Qatar and have a 6th tournament for the year in their trophy cabinet, having taken the World Club Cup. They can open up a 7 point lead at the top of Bundesliga this evening over Leipzig, who look the only realistic challenger left now, but hard to see the Bavarian giants dropping enough points for an unlikely slip to happen. Defensively, it has been far from a vintage season from Bayern, they do look to have tightened up a little at the back in recent starts in all competitions, but if we isolate their last 25 Bundesliga games, they have won 20 , drawn three and lost two, with just 9 clean sheets, conceding a single goal on 11 occasions, two goals three times and three or more on four occasions. If we take those at face value, they are 36% to keep a clean sheet, a 64% chance to concede and with a 20% to give up 2+ goals, 44% to allow exactly one. Of course, they are at home today and face a weaker than average opponent, but we can also argue that they are back from a long trip and Bielefeld have little to lose, with low expectations and will be fresh, having not played in 15 days. The reverse fixture ended 4-1 with Arminia creating two BC's and having 5 attempts on target and two premium chances per game is about what the hosts have been allowing for most of this season, it has fallen to 1.625 over the last 8 starts, but every reason to feel that the visitors will get between 1-2 BC's , they just need to take one.