They were the better team for my money and missed two other huge chances ,deserved at least a point and this is a team who are going to score a LOT of goals this season and they are capable of doing so against any Bundesliga team. However, it has to be said that they look ideally suited to playing on the road and Mainz look certain to provide stern opposition. The visitors finished 12th last season, but they should have scored 12-13 goals more (xGF) and they were a Bundesliga 3rd best for BC's over the final eight games of last season, with their 24-11 record better than Bayern's. Mainz also have a great recent record in this fixture winning on their last two visits by a combined 7-2, it was only 2-1 back in March, but they "won" BC's 7-2, ITB attempts 12-4 and on target (again) 7-2. Their last 9 trips to Hoffenheim have averaged 4.11 goals and another mini shootout is on the cards.

 

Mainz were worthy winners ("only" 2-0 unfortunately) , despite Hoffenheim huffing and puffing without creating much, but I expect them to get back on track today , being on the road, where they are usually seen at their best and against what I consider a weak opponent. Bielefeld finished 15th last season, surviving by 2 points, but were 17th for xP and had horrendous ITB and BC (-51) stats , being a net -1.5 BC's per game, across all league starts. Through four outings this season they are a net -5 BC's ( -1.25 pg).

 

Hoffenheim have already beaten a team in Augsburg with similar numbers to Arminia, 4-0 on the road. Away win.