Brazilian Serie A football restarted last weekend and is one of our main "summer leagues", along with MLS and J-League 1 and that will form the basis of the daily notes from June-July, but we also have European football this month, restarting in August and, this summer, we have three major international tournaments...........Copa America ( June 14-July 7), CONCACAF Gold Cup (June 15-July 7) and the African Cup of Nations (June 21-July 19). On top of which we have golf each week and all the big tennis events ! A huge summer of sport !

 

 

You can see our first Brazilian notes below and the football comes think and fast there. with another two rounds this week.

 

 

 

Brazilian Serie A football starts today, it is one of our most popular leagues and will not be such a low key start as we adopt in some countries. In Brazil they play almost year round and most players are already match fit and there is no "hanging around"in terms of fixtures, a midweek round next week and 9 total in the first six weeks or so, before a brief break for Copa America.

 

Same format as last season, top 4 qualify for Copa Libertadores group stage, 5th and 6th for the second stage of that competition, teams finishing 7th-12th enter Copa Sudamericana, I will let you decide if that is a prize worth fighting for or not ! Bottom four are relegated, only spots 13-16 are not rewarded, or punished and that ensures we have something to play for all season in this most competitive of leagues. The 10% dip in home wins to 43.95% in 2017 will have to remain one of life's great mysteries, they were back up to 53% + last season and that is very much the norm, reasons are well documented .....teams rack up a lot of air miles, playing often in gruelling conditions and games come thick and fast. Finally, wins and not goal difference is the first tie breaker after points.

 

Most leagues see fewer goals in opening games, that has not been the case in Brazil in the last two seasons, when the 20 opening fixtures have averaged 3.0 goals , with a 14-5-1 split (70% home wins). We always need good reason to back road teams in Brazil, doubly so this round.

 

 

 

Almost all football fans have a soft spot for Chapecoense after the awful plane crash in Colombia and most were delighted to see them rebuild and survive last season. They were tough to beat here in Chapeco where they won 10 times and collected 79.54% of all their points won, that is big, even in Brazil and I do not doubt that like many teams in this league who's ultimate ambitions are limited, that they know their fate will be decided by home form. For the bigger clubs like Internacional it is the opposite, they take winning at home for granted and it is the odd road win which dictates the top spot, that and the big h2h games, Inter won just 5 on the road last season, the fewest amongst the top 6 and had trouble imposing themselves on teams in away starts. They have made a fast start in Copa Libertadores play and have already won their group and qualified for the knockout stage with a group stage round remaining, but the international competition often brings with it a cost in domestic games, especially in the opening months and I suspect that a third Copa title will be their priority. Chapeco are also battle hardened , but eliminated from the Copa do Brasil losing in R4 this week to Corinthians, winning the home tie 1-0, but losing the away leg 2-0 which is a microcosm of their long term home and away form. Inter have two big games next week, Flamengo and Palmeriras two likely title challengers and they will have one eye on those. For Chape it will be all about this, they go back to Sao Paulo to play Corinthians in midweek, already knowing full well how tough that will be, I will take the host to record a 5th staright win here in this series (they won the last four by a combined 9-1).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Flamengo have not lost here in Rio to Cruzeiro in eight league meetings (six wins) or in Belo Horizonte since 2015. My numbers indicated these were two of the best three teams in Brazil last season, despite Cruz finishing down in 8th, but that was misleading as they had won the Copa do Brasil long before the season end and secured a Copa Libertadores group stage spot. Fla were second, eight points adrift of champions Palmeiras, it has to be said that it was the second year running that they had blown a good chance to take a first title since 2009, as they might well have been one of the two best teams in 2017 when they were 6th ! The talent is there , they just need to hold it together for 38 and not 30 games. Vinicius Junior and Lucas Paqueta are now in Europe and Fla better off by 85m euros, but they have spent well, with circa 40m going out on a handful of players. Giorgian de Arrascaeta has joined from Cruzeiro (6 goals and 6 assists from 20 apps last season), Vitinho has now signed permanently from CSKA ( he has 3 goals and 5 assists from out wide for Fla in the second half of 2018), from Santos, Bruno Henrique  has arrived( 1 goal and 3 assists last season, 8 and 12 in 2017) and Gabriel Barbosa is on a season long loan from Internazionale (he had 18 goals for Santos last year). I really love these additions, all four have actually already scored this season in the Copa Libertadores and Henrique also has four assists. I bigged up Barbosa late last season writing ..........#10 Gabriel Barbosa , is still only 22 yo, can play a variety of offensive roles , has 13 goals to his name and it is odd that Internazionale allowed him out on loan again, both looked very good and you will get some idea of all this in these brief highlights.Bonus is that the signings also weaken potential rivals, including Cruz, who won just 6/25 when GDA played less than 45 minutes, failing to score in 13 (!) and only more than a single goal twice, when he played over a half, they won 12/23 and averaged 1.61 goals per game ! Defensively, Rodrigo Caio has joined from Sao Paulo and Piris da Molta from San Lorenzo, all the signing are senior players who can and already have hit the ground running and hugely experienced head coach Abel Braga has now taken charge for what I think is his 23rd appointment with a top Brazilian club ( I lost count twice, so gave up !) his second at Flamengo. This feels like a big title push and long overdue.

 

 

2 units Flamengo -0.5 ball 2.18 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good Luck.